Never Draft a Starting Pitcher Early

By Matthew Beck

 

While drafting a stud starting pitcher in the early rounds may be tempting, it has been proven time and again there is much value to be found at the position later in drafts. Loading up on hitters in the early going not only secures everyday production for your fantasy team, but it takes away some of the risk associated with starting pitchers, who only contribute at most two times a week, if they fail to reach their full expectations.

There isn’t a golden rule as to when you should start drafting starting pitchers, but good things do come to those who wait. In fact, each of the last two AL Cy Young Award winners were pitchers rostered late in drafts; Corey Kluber (2014) and Dallas Keuchel (2015). Although those two starting pitchers are extreme examples, there is always value to be found in the later rounds, compared to finding consistent plate production as drafts wind down.

According to average draft position data collected from six of the top fantasy sports sites from 2015 (thanks to Fantasy Pros), if you waited until the 10th round or later to draft starting pitching, these are the names most likely available for the taking:

Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Michael Pineda, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana, Scott Kazmir, Dallas Keuchel, Jose Fernandez, Jake Odorizzi, Shelby Miller, John Lackey, Danny Salazar, Carlos Martinez, Marco Estrada, Jason Hammel

Not only was there plenty of value in the later rounds, but as the season progressed there was plenty of starting pitchers that made an impact off the waiver wire in 2015:

Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Luis Severino, Erasmo Ramirez, Edinson Volquez, Kyle Hendricks, J.A. Happ, C.J. Wilson, Mike Fiers, Lance McCullers, Chris Heston, Cody Anderson, Taylor Jungmann, etc.

Outside of flat out telling you not to draft starting pitchers early, there are a few reasons to consider come draft day if you feel threatened by a run of starters earlier than expected.

First, pitchers are a lot more difficult to predict than hitters. There are a lot of variables that can affect the outcome of a starter’s trip to the mound. It isn’t just the defense behind him and the run support provided by the offense. Weather, mound conditions and health can affect a pitcher's performance on a given day, all of which are hard to predict in season, let alone on draft day.

Second, when a pitcher suffers an injury the time missed tends to be longer than that of a hitter as most injuries require a minimum of a 15-day stint on the disabled list. Even the smallest of injuries, like a blister or a hangnail, have the potential of forcing a pitcher to miss a start or two.

Here are some pitchers drafted early in 2015 that failed to reach 30 starts:

Matt Harvey, Masahiro Tanaka, Stephen Strasburg, Adam Wainwright, Hisashi Iwakuma, Justin Verlander, Doug Fister

Third, the increased usage of middle relief pitchers has led to only 10 starting pitchers to reach 20 wins since 2012. That’s right, only 10 pitchers. As organizations spend more and more on relief pitching, managers tend to lean more toward matchup play or leaving starters in deep into ball games. As if wins weren’t hard enough to try and predict.

Last but not least, starting pitchers will only help you twice a week, at best, compared to a hitter who will play roughly six days a week, outside of scheduled off days. It is hard to compare the likes of Mike Trout to Clayton Kershaw as both players bring a different set of skills to the table, but there are far less variables to consider when forecasting the production a player like Trout can bring to the table. Let’s not forget, a starter will only help fantasy owners in four of the five pitching categories, where a hitter has the chance of being a contributor in all five offensive categories.

So keep it simple. Drafting starting pitchers in the early rounds puts you at an early disadvantage. The fantasy baseball season is long and grueling enough, so no reason to make it any harder than it needs to be. Who knows, maybe the diamond in the rough you find in the later rounds might be the next Corey Kluber or Dallas Keuchel. At least one can hope.