Well, the clock is ticking on the NFL regular season and we have just one more week of a full slate of games. The problem, however, is that while every team is playing next week, a number of starters are going to be rested. Some may play a quarter. Some may play a half. Some might not even set foot onto the field. It is for that reason that I am reluctant to play in NFL DFS in Week 17. While we’re always at the whim of the coaches, this coming week obviously has a much greater risk.

Sure, I could field a lineup strictly of players on teams with something to play for, but am I even confident in those guys based on their level of play and potential matchup? A team like the Buccaneers has nothing but pride to play for and has no reason to rest its starters, but what happens if/when the Panthers take out their top guys and the game becomes something that resembles Week 4 of the preseason? Neither the Saints nor the Falcons have anything at stake for the post season, so how long will Drew Brees and his aching foot stay in? There are just far too many variables in play that I just don’t want to have to worry about. I’d rather save it for the playoffs and simply use a smaller slate of games with players hungry for a win.

Maybe I’m over-thinking it. Maybe my concerns can be worked around? Perhaps. Not even perhaps. More like probably. However, I just assume take the week off, save myself any unnecessary grief and maybe take what I would have spent this week and pour it into some NBA DFS. After all, once the playoffs commence and the player pool shrinks each week, I’m going to have to get my fix elsewhere. Might as well get the hoops ball rolling.

As for Week 16, well, I ended the season on a high note. Sort of. It certainly wasn’t a windfall by any stretch of the imagination, but I didn’t lose and that, my friends, is all that matters. Sure, I wish I had the DFS chops to be like Jeff Mans and cash a $125K prize, but I’m not going to be greedy here in my first NFL season. Overall, I’m actually up about $600 on the season which, considering the ups and downs and the small-potato stakes I’ve played, works just fine for me. I’m now taking that money, adding a little bit to it and setting myself up for the MLB season. Sure, like I said, I’ll dabble in some hoops, but the bankroll is built and I will invest it in what I know best which is baseball.

In any event, let’s start with my cash lineup here which saw me win my $5 50/50.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blake Bortles, QB JAC – This was a no-brainer pick and worth the slight pay-up from my usual price range for quarterbacks. The Saints are atrocious, the connection between Bortles and his receivers has been strong all year and I knew everyone was going to be using him. No need to go contrarian when you’re playing a cash game and you assume that at least 40 percent of the field has the guy. If he sucks, we all go down together. If he kills it, well, we all get the same points. Spoiler Alert: He was owned by half the entrants and he killed it.

David Johnson, RB ARI – Same exact rationale with Bortles. He wasn’t overly pricey, considering his recent games but pricey enough that I felt good about investing some money in the position. Awesome matchup as the Packers run defense is soft like the fur of a three-month old puppy and again, I figured he would be heavily owned. Even if he wasn’t though, I was fairly confident that he would deliver the goods. And he did.

Charcandrick West, RB KC – I was pretty confident in the matchup. The Browns suck, plain and simple, and their run defense is like a sieve most of the time. West is a good play in a PPR set-up, even at a half-point, and despite the news of Spencer Ware playing, I thought that, even with a few touches poached here and there, he could produce and the investment I was making in his price tag wasn’t outrageous. I was right in that he saw the majority of touches, but he only racked up 62 yards and failed to find the end zone. The lack of catches is what really ticked me though. His 6.6 points can be considered a swing and a miss.

Antonio Brown, WR PIT – Pay up for your receivers, right? The Ravens pass defense sucks, right? Well who would have thought Jimmy Smith would play the game of his life and the Steelers would whimper away with their tail between their legs? The 11 targets he saw jibed with what I was hoping to see, but the results just weren’t there. This was a disappointment, for sure.

Sammy Watkins, WR BUF – Another pay-up here as Watkins has been nothing short of awesome over the last half-a-dozen games. With the way Dallas’ defense was serving up yards and touchdowns to opposing No. 1 receivers this year, I truly felt this was going to be a walk in the park. It was. Central Park. At 4:30 AM. Surrounded by muggers. Watkins posted over 80 yards, but his failure to get into the end zone really took my chances of a big day away.

Rueben Randle, WR NYG – Now on any given week this would be a dart. But with no Odell Beckham, Randle becomes Eli Manning’s top target and he was going to see some work. Got a little lucky with that 80-yard touchdown, but I’m certainly not complaining. Sometimes you need a little luck to keep you going.

Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN – This was my low-cost, high-upside tight end. The Giants pass defense looked like a pee wee league team trying to catch lightning in a bottle and jumping routes. They ranked 24th in the league against the tight end and with the price being so low, I was sure to see a positive value. Turns out I was right….for the most part. Not a lot of yardage for Rudolph but he did find the end zone and give me 12-plus points.

Justin Tucker, K BAL – He was the most reliable kicker for the lowest amount of money and I figured that the offense would stall at least a few times so I could rack up some field goals. He had two with a pair of extra points to give him 10 on the day. Not the 18-point bonanza I once had with Graham Gano a few weeks ago, but it was at least a double-digit total.

Kansas City Chiefs, DEF – They’ve been killing it with the turnovers and the defensive scores, so I assumed Johnny Manziel would be good for at least one pick-six. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen and while they didn’t play a bad game, they didn’t put up the points I would have liked.

A final score of 123.82 wasn’t the greatest, but again, it was good enough to cash in the 50/50. I had thought about just submitting this lineup for my tournament play this week as well, but opted to do a couple of things differently. Here’s a look at my tournament lineup which was just a $1 Single Entry. Yes, I know. Big bucks. But…more importantly…no whammies!

Here’s how it went down…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blake Bortles, QB JAC – Figured his ownership percentages would go down in a tournament setting but would still put up the same glorious points total. An ownership percentage of 25.7 was still high, but it was thankfully half of what it was in my cash game. With so many people talking him up, it only made sense to assume plenty were going to fade him.

Doug Martin, RB TB – So here was my pay-up at the position. Martin was looking towards the rushing title and the Bears run defense has been a disaster all year. I was obviously hoping for a much bigger day. He did get into the end zone, but the lack of yardage could have really done me in here.

Karlos Williams, RB BUF – Here was another guy everyone was talking about, so again, I assumed many would fade him. With a 10.5 ownership percentage, I was dead-on with the call. Similarly to Martin, I wished there was some additional yardage, but the 14.7 points were solid considering how much he cost.

Antonio Brown, WR PIT – Yup. Went with Brown here too. What can you do? You pay up for those receivers. No need to explain myself again. Right?

Allen Robinson, WR JAC – Certainly another no-brainer. Could have gone with him in my cash game as well but wanted to use Watkins. I figured with him and Bortles together I would push myself forward in the group. Those who also had them would be right there with me and if they stunk, well, then I lose a buck.

Michael Floyd, WR ARI – Unlike my cash game lineup I had a little extra money to spend and Floyd has been dynamic over the last few weeks. I wasn’t too nervous about Carson Palmer’s finger but figured a lot of people would be and maybe that would cut the ownership percentage down. Sure enough, he was owned in just six percent of the lineups and did well for me.

Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN – Again, a low-cost option with good upside. Thought there would be more yards but alas…not the case.

Justin Tucker, K BAL – Same rationale as above in my cash game.

Pittsburgh Steelers, DEF – So I tried to go with a relatively low-cost defense here that might have some good upside. The Steelers were owned in almost 16 percent of the lineups, so I wasn’t alone in my thinking about the matchup with Baltimore. Of course, no one clued the Steelers in that they were supposed to hold strong.

So a $1 investment in a Single Entry tournament gets doubled as my 126.02 was just enough to scrape in under the wire. Obviously, I was a little bummed at some of these studs not panning out as well as they could/should have, but this is a process and as I continue to stick to the plan and use what I’ve learned, I’m making money. Again, not big money but you know what…? I’m winning. You know…it’s like better than losing?

As the playoffs roll on, I’ll stop in here again to share some lineup thoughts. I also feel like we should wrap up this series by talking more about game selection. As a matter of fact, that’s what we’ll do next week since I don’t plan on playing any NFL lineups for Week 17. Or will I….?

Best of luck to you all and I’ll see you in the money next year!