When the season began there was a clear expectation as to who the top receivers were going to be this season. Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham and in some circles, Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green were expected to be the most-targeted wideouts in the game while Rob Gronkowski and, after the injury to Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen were likely to see targets of the WR1 variety. But as we head into Week 5, we’ve got a new contender for the overall targets lead this season in Houston receiver DeAndre Hopkins who currently leads the pack with 60 targets through four games (and average of 15 targets per game).

Now obviously, many had high expectations for Hopkins, but he was still listed as a second or, in some cases, a third-tier receiver. It wasn’t his talent in question, though, as much as it was that of his quarterback. There was zero confidence in Brian Hoyer heading into the season and while many expected Ryan Mallett to take over at some point, no one was really gushing over him either. And we all know what a shaky quarterback can do to a receiver’s value. Just ask the guy in your league who made a stupid panic trade and dumped Antonio Brown. D-Hop was a coveted player this year, but everyone had reservations in the back of their mind.

I don’t mean to plant the seeds of doubt in your head, but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t address the million dollar question -- can he keep this pace up? While I don’t see any of Houston’s receivers stepping up and stealing targets, I do see the return of Arian Foster as a potential threat. Not only will the Texans likely revert back to a more run-based offense, but Foster also sees a ton of work in the passing game. If you look below at the Overall Targets Leaderboard, you’ll notice just a 48.3 percent catch rate (60 targets, 31 receptions). Are those non-catches Hopkins’ fault or are they possibly balls thrown in his direction that were misfires by Hoyer and Mallett? If both quarterbacks are simply airing it out and forcing passes because of the lack of a proper ground game, that will likely change once Foster returns to the backfield.

All of this could mean that Hopkins has “sell-high” written all over him. I’m sure you’ve received offers and have been reluctant to part with the wideout in the midst of a breakout campaign, but let’s face facts -- people always overpay when they’re enamored with a particular player. If someone is making you an offer that seems too good to be true, it just might be worth it in the end if it improves the overall quality of your team.

Now let’s look at the target leaders from Week 4 and discuss some of these oddball outliers we see.

Week 4 Target Leaders

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Charles Clay, TE BUF – His targets and fantasy value have grown exponentially with Sammy Watkins sitting on the shelf. The Bills don’t have much going on in the receiver departments and while Robert Woods and Chris Hogan have talent, they’re like a couple of mice running around out there in comparison to Clay. So long as Watkins is out, Clay should continue to see a heavy dose of targets and considering how bad the Titans are at covering the tight end, Clay should be considered a must-start.

Jamison Crowder, WR WAS – He’s popped onto the radar briefly over the first few weeks, but with DeSean Jackson nearing a return, it’s difficult to believe Crowder will continue to see as many targets as he’s seen lately. In leagues of 12 teams or fewer, he’s nothing more than a bye-week filler right now and if D-Jax comes back this week, Crowder is even less than that.

Stefon Diggs, WR MIN – Who? This guy isn’t even owned in my 16-team league that allows for eight guys on the bench. The fifth-round rookie out of Maryland wasn’t expected to make any sort of splash this season, but with the injury to Charles Johnson, an apparent lack of faith in Jarius Wright and no love for Cordarrelle Patterson, the Vikings coaches are digging Diggs. Personally, I think Week 4 was more of a match-up thing than anything else and no, I do not see him being a valued fantasy commodity moving forward.

Duke Johnson, RB CLE – Browns head coach Mike Pettine doesn’t strike me as the brightest bunny in the NFL forest, but his recent usage of Johnson has definitely given the rookie a nice early-season value. Given the buzz on the rookie running back coming into the season, it’s very possible that he’s already residing on someone’s bench, but if he’s available, he’s definitely worth adding. He’ll continue to see work as the Browns’ pass-catching back and considering how many check-downs we’re looking at this season, he should be a strong PPR flex option each week.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Percentage Leaders

Keenan Allen, WR SD – Allow me to preface this with the fact that I do love Allen as a fantasy receiver and am heavily invested in him this year despite last season’s step back. But while he sits as the most-targeted player in San Diego with a 31.5-percent target rate, the return of Antonio Gates is going to eat into his overall targets. Not to mention, the already-low red zone target rate is likely to diminish as well once the big tight end steps onto the field. I’m putting him right up there with Hopkins among potential sell-high candidates. You don’t do it unless the offer is tough to refuse, but you don’t dismiss trade offers because you’re enamored with his early-season production.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI – He’s not going away, people. While John Brown was on so many owners’ radar, it’s been all Fitz, all day in Arizona. His 27.6-percent target rate dwarfs that of Brown and completely pees on that of Michael Floyd. Obviously there’s the threat of a Carson Palmer injury, but you have to ride this wave until it breaks…if it ever does.

Pierre Garcon, WR WAS – After discussing both Hopkins and Allen as potential sell-highs, you would naturally believe that Garcon is one as well with DeSean Jackson headed back. But wait…what’s that rattling sound I hear? Oh yeah! That’s Jordan Reed’s brain being banged around his skull yet again. OK, maybe the joke comes in bad taste, but we cannot lose sight of the fact that his targets will be headed elsewhere. You can expect D-Jax to see some, as well as back-up tight end Derek Carrier, but Garcon will also pick up more which will increase his already team-leading target rate. And if you have any doubts, just go back and watch the footage of that last drive by the Redskins when Garcon looked like an acrobat with gloves made of glue.

Red Zone Target Percentage Leaders

Vincent Jackson, WR TB – Apparently there is little concern for a low catch rate as V-Jax is still the No. 1 red zone target in Tampa Bay. In fact, his 50 percent of the targets inside the 20 ranks No. 1 overall in the NFL. There is still the belief that Mike Evans will soon make his presence felt in the red zone, but the veteran Jackson obviously has the attention of his rookie quarterback. Expect the rate to dwindle a little bit, but not enough to be concerned.

Steve Smith, WR BAL – With 36.8 percent of the red zone targets going to Smith, Joe Flacco is going to have to find himself a new option as the veteran wideout misses time with a back issue. You’ll start to see his numbers diminish as he slides down the leaderboard, but with such a heavy workload inside the 20, someone is about to see a massive boost in red zone targets. Kamar Aiken seems like the most-likely candidate, but don’t discount big, rookie tight end Maxx Williams.

Eddie Royal, WR CHI – Seriously. Alshon Jeffery cannot get here fast enough so we can stop talking about Eddie freakin’ Royal. His 31.3-percent target rate inside the red zone seems a bit maddening and it should drop once Jeffery comes back. But until you start seeing Jeffery on the field and getting red zone looks, you have to ride the Royal train. If he’s got this high a target rate inside the 20, his overall production should continue to increase.

Potential Risers

James Jones
Kendall Wright
Rueben Randle
Jimmy Graham
Devonta Freeman

Potential Fallers

Steve Smith
Nate Washington
Stevie Johnson
Doug Baldwin
Jordan Cameron

Week 5 Match-Up to Watch

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants – Based on the 579 combined passing yards these teams give up each week, this game could end up a fantasy owner’s delight. Opposing quarterbacks have a cumulative 108.3 passer rating against them this year and the 263 passing yards per game should mean that Eli Manning is going to have a field day airing it out to Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle. Meanwhile, the Giants pass defense has allowed the most yardage through the air this season and a desperate Colin Kaepernick is going to spend the majority of the second half chucking the ball downfield to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. If the Giants run defense, which has allowed the fewest yards this season, can stifle Carlos Hyde, then this matchup should dominate in passing attempts.