Now I’m not saying the clouds parted, an angelic chorus was heard or that the heavens opened, but after three weeks of banging my head against a wall and wondering if I was ever going to crack this NFL DFS nut, it finally happened. I finally broke through. Winner winner, chicken dinner! It wasn’t exactly pretty, as you’ll see in a moment, but for the first time this season, I cashed in on the $2 50/50 I’ve been playing each week and the first step of what could be a very long and lucrative journey has officially begun.

If you’ve been following along with this series, you already know that I’ve used these first few weeks to collect data and learn the best ways to structure my lineup. I’ve learned to spend less on quarterbacks, go cheap on at least one running back and invest my money in at least two strong wide receivers. One side note: the half-point PPR does not make much of a difference when I’m making my decisions. Full-point PPR on other sites means you can choose guys like Julian Edelman or Jeremy Maclin -- players who see so many targets and record so many receptions that they can be huge assets even without finding the end zone -- but here on FanDuel, their value isn’t as strong and you really need/want those red zone looks. I’ll still consider using some guys like Jarvis Landry, but only if I truly believe the matchup is favorable enough to increase his chances of doing a little end zone dancing.

Meanwhile, the defensive data is really shaping up to the point where you can pinpoint and exploit certain areas of weakness which, in turn, has led to a better ability to bargain hunt when you need to. For example, the data has shown the Raiders have a major inability to cover the tight end, which enabled me to find a great bargain pick in Gary Barnidge for Week 3 and with a slightly greater investment, Martellus Bennett, in Week 4. Both players paid major dividends and if it wasn’t for my use of Bennett this week, I would have been sitting here pissing and moaning about a fourth-straight losing effort.

So let’s get to my Week 4 cash game lineup and see what exactly went right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OK, so it wasn’t exactly pretty, but cashing in is still cashing in for a 50/50. It’s like the old saying goes -- what do you call the guy who finishes last in his class at medical school? Doctor. So while I may have just made the cut with this lineup, I made just as much as the guy who finished first. Baby steps, right?

Breaking it down further…

Philip Rivers, QB -- This was a big one for me as Rivers crushed it against the Browns. So many people focus on how lousy the Cleveland run defense, but when word broke that Joe Haden was going to miss the game, I knew Rivers was going to try and take advantage early. The offensive line woes would force him into a shorter passing game, but with the likes of Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson and a returning Ladarius Green, this looked like a solid matchup for the cost. I also considered Tyrod Taylor against a soft Giants defense for similar money, but I went with the higher level of experience and a proven 300-yard passer. Cha-ching!!

Melvin Gordon, RB -- This was a mistake. I was looking for low cost and a soft run defense, but I should have known that the offensive line issue would have a negative effect. I was hoping for more garbage-time yards and it just didn’t pan out. Offensive lines matter, people. Just ask Matt Ryan about his 2014 season.

Latavius Murray, RB -- If I’m going to invest in a running back, I should stick to the elites, but I wasn’t in love with some of the matchups and Murray had what was expected to be an extremely favorable matchup against a woeful Bears defense. Well, the Bears focused on stuffing the run early, an injury knocked him out for a bit and then he got benched after a fumble, giving me almost no return on my investment. It’s going to be difficult to pay up for a Jamaal Charles every week, but it looks like that is going to be the way to achieve consistent success in cash games.

Odell Beckham, WR -- The data showed the Bills giving up a lot of yardage to opposing No. 1 receivers, but their pass defense really focused on keeping Beckham in check. For the cost, it didn’t pay off nearly as we would like, but then again, neither did Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green or Calvin Johnson. None of them earned their keep this week.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR -- I have a sneaking suspicion that he is going to be a potential staple in my cash game lineups. He always sees a ton of targets and he also gets the red zone looks. It’s tough when the guy throwing him the ball is a subpar quarterback, but he sees so much work that even without a touchdown, he’s a big play.

James Jones, WR -- Given his level of production and the fact that Aaron Rodgers constantly looks for him in the red zone, is there any reason not to play him at this price? I don’t think so.

Martellus Bennett, TE -- After finding success with Barnidge last week, this was all about using whatever guy was facing the Raiders. I didn’t care if it was Jay Cutler or Jimmy Pickles throwing the ball, the Raiders just can’t cover the tight end. I had to pay up a little to get Bennett, but he still produced like a champ. The day would have been even better as he was the end zone target on a pass that Cutler just slightly underthrew and got picked off, but I don’t want to appear greedy. Mental Note: Owen Daniels faces the Raiders in Week 5.

Josh Brown, K -- The Giants' red zone offense tends to stall enough that Brown sees enough opportunities and he’s one of the few kickers who has found success this season. It wasn’t the best of weeks for him here, but he is now 10-for-10 on field goals and that’s without a single attempt under 30 yards.

Arizona Cardinals, DEF -- With the way Nick Foles has looked, I thought this was a sensible pick. They weren’t the most expensive and their expected return justified the cost. Who knew that Todd Gurley was going to eat their run defense for breakfast? In retrospect, I should have just gone with someone cheap like the Raiders and paid up for a higher-end running back.

So all in all, it wasn’t the most prolific group, but with 20-plus point days from at least three guys, I managed to sneak into the money. Looking ahead, based on the numbers, here are some names I’m looking at for Week 5:

QB – Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco

RB – Le’Veon Bell, Justin Forsett, Todd Gurley, Frank Gore

WR – Odell Beckham, Allen Hurns, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins

TE – Owen Daniels, Rob Gronkowski, Charles Clay, Zach Ertz

 

BONUS FEATURE:

It’s time to start talking tournaments. While learning to be successful at cash games is vital, everyone loves the allure of being the next DFS millionaire and learning to play the right lineup in a GPP is the next step. As we have obviously learned from the recent DFS news, playing contrarian lineups seems to give you a significant edge over your competition, so we’re going to start looking at some under-the-radar matchups which could lead us to some players with relatively low ownership percentages.

Interestingly enough, though, the lineup that won the million bucks this week (shown here) hardly seemed to be contrarian heading in. Karlos Williams and Devonta Freeman were both getting a lot of hype all week and Hopkins, Thomas and Allen are usually all over people’s radar. I feel like this person’s thinking was to go with the hyped guys anyway because so many people will assume high ownership and avoid them, thus making them low-owned guys. I can’t imagine that strategy is going to work every week though.

To get the ball rolling, I did enter my cash game lineup into FanDuel’s $6M tourney and it failed miserably. I know the lineup choices are supposed to be different and you don’t play tournaments the same way you do cash games, but I thought I might have some potential contrarian picks in there which might help me. I was right on the contrarian part, but you need to have almost all your guys hit in order to be successful. I’ll track the hype machine over the next few days and come back here by Saturday night with a few GPP plays I might be trying out.

Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!