Fantasy Football Target Watch: Look Past the No-Shows

While I would love to spare you the whole “any given Sunday” rhetoric, you have to admit that, if there’s a lesson to be learned from Week 14, it’s that even the greatest of players can stumble and kick you in the fantasy groin at the most inopportune time. Week 14 is usually the final week of the fantasy regular season or the first round of the playoffs. Wins are a must and there is little to no room for error. So when Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and all of their receivers shit the bed last week, fantasy seasons were destroyed and four months of dedication were subsequently flushed down the toilet.

Sometimes it just happens and there’s nothing you can do about it. Week in and week out you spend the necessary time crunching the numbers, studying match-ups and tracking both injury and practice reports. You seek out advice because a second or third (or fourth) opinion can’t hurt and you leave your radio tuned to the Sirius XM Fantasy Sports station so you don’t miss a thing. You’ve left no stone unturned and yet in the blink of an eye, the Bills defense crushes your hopes and dreams as well as your quest for a championship.

It can be brutal. Downright heartbreaking actually. We offer you our condolences because you are far from alone. Many of us got screwed out of our championships just as you did. In one league, I was the No. 1 seed going into the playoffs with a roster littered with names such as Demaryius Thomas, Keenan Allen and Jimmy Graham. Heck, I even traded for Peyton Manning back in Week 6. Well, you can imagine the look on my face after posting a season-low in total points and a loss to the sixth seed in the first round.

But if there’s no crying in baseball, there sure as hell ain’t no crying in football either. Many of you are still in the hunt which is why you’re here ready to talk targets and for those of you who got knocked out, there’s still plenty of NFL to go and a boatload of daily leagues in which to compete. So let’s dry those eyes and get back to business. We are far from done.

Week 14 Target Leaders

Let’s just acknowledge that, overall, it was a huge week for passing numbers. The irony of increased passing in a week where neither Peyton nor Brees did anything worth remembering shouldn’t be lost, but lets credit those quarterbacks and receivers who still managed to post some killer numbers. There were 23 receivers/tight ends who saw double-digit targets this week which is a season-high.Most of the names were to be expected, but there were still enough surprises to keep things interesting.

Michael Crabtree, WR SF – After eight-straight weeks of averaging fewer than seven targets for less than 45 yards per game, Crabtree finally found his way into Colin Kaepernick’s field of vision. His 14 targets were a season-high and his nine catches were the most he’s had since Week 3. While we’d like to think that maybe Kaepernick finally turned a corner and learned how to look for more than just Anquan Boldin, we really can’t. Kaepernick has had a slew of weapons at his disposal all year and continues to struggle. This game was not growth. It was desperation found in a loss to one of the worst teams in the league. A match-up against Seattle will slap Crabtree owners back into reality.

Fred Jackson, RB BUF – It’s been a rough year for Jackson and his owners as the 33-year old is showing just why everyone steers clear of guys his age at this position. The yardage just hasn’t been there and neither have the touchdowns. Even with the loss of C.J. Spiller, Jackson hasn’t posted numbers worth anything more than a low-to-mid level flex play. However, this week, if you’re in a PPR league, he turned things around with 10 catches. Again, the yardage was weak and there was no end zone dancing, but if he’s going to be on the field for 60 snaps and is going to be getting both planned and check-down targets, he gets a bump in value in PPR play. In standard leagues, he’s a bit less attractive.

Pierre Garcon, WR WAS – Whoa. Wait a minute. Really? We have an actual Garcon sighting? Well that’s just downright crazy. OK, so maybe not crazy as DeSean Jackson went down with a leg injury and Colt McCoy really had no other options. The only way we’re even remotely high on Garcon is if Jackson is out for this week. Currently, he’s 50-50 to play so if you can pick up garcon and wait to see what happens then you could have a nice addition here. The match-up with the Giants certainly makes it worth a try.

Scott Chandler, TE BUF – He had 11 targets which he turned into eight catches for 81 yards. Not too shabby. But the last time he was even remotely as productive was back in Week 6 when he had nine targets and totaled six catches for 105 yards. But that’s a long time in between productive weeks and even though Green Bay ranks 17^th against the tight end, he’s not considered too trustworthy.

Percy Harvin, WR NYJ – If it wasn’t for the fact that the Jets play Tennessee in Week 15, he wouldn’t even get a mention here as anything more than a fluke performer for a week filled with way too much passing. But the match-up is pretty darn good here and if you’re looking for a potential low-end flex play in a PPR format, he just might be worth the risk. Careful though…these are the Jets we’re talking about.

Travis Kelce, TE KC – Speaking of fluke performances….how are all of those Kelce-fluffers doing now? After seven-straight weeks of being no more than a low-end option amongst a position filled with disappointments, Kelce finally pulled out a strong game. Now the question is…can he do it again? The match-up looks ridiculously tasty as Oakland travels to Arrowhead Stadium, but be careful as the Raiders, believe it or not, rank eighth in the league against the tight end.

Cecil Shorts, WR JAC – He’s only being included so we can laugh at him. Who sees 10 targets and catches just two passes for three yards? Seriously. Who? No one on my fantasy team, that’s for sure.

Overall Target Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

Vincent Jackson/Mike Evans WR TB – Just a few weeks ago we discussed the transition we were witnessing in Tampa as Evans was clearly overtaking Jackson as the team’s top guy. But while Evans found himself dancing in the end zone not once but twice, it was Jackson who came away with 17 targets this past week. Evans had 11 which is nothing to sneeze at, but the gap in target percentage that was closing just got split a little wider again. The Bucs face the Panthers and their 20^th-ranked pass defense this week, so expect both to see a heavy dose of targets again. However, if we had to choose one over the other, we’d stick with VJax in PPR play and Evans in standard.

Robert Woods/Chris Hogan, WR BUF – We all know that Sammy Watkins is the No. 1 for the Bills, but the target rates for Woods and Hogan seem to be fluctuating lately as both are seeing an increase in action. Woods is still the man to own out of the two, but if you’re in a real deep league and find yourself in need of a potential big play, then Hogan is easily worth a look., especially against the Packers this week.

Red Zone Target Leaders

Martellus Bennett, TE CHI – Not only does he lead the Bears with a 28.2-percent red zone target rate, but Bennett is about to see things open up even more for him this week. With Brandon Marshall out, Jay Cutler always seems to do a great job at hitting Bennett early, often and in the red zone. It’s not that Bennett doesn’t see looks when Marshall is in there, but if you look at the early-season numbers when Marshall was out with an ankle problem, Bennett was seeing 8-to-10 targets with almost three red zone targets per game. With Marshall in, he went to 6-to-8 targets with maybe one red zone look if he was lucky. In the last two games with no (or an unhealthy) Marshall, Bennett has 26 targets with four red zone looks. “Nuff said.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 15 Match-Up to Watch

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – Plain and simple, this game will be a total shootout. The Cowboys pass defense ranks 27^th in the league and The Eagles are going to expose that early and often. As Philadelphia jumps out to an early lead, Tony Romo will be forced to air it out. We like Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten the most. Cole Beasley will probably see some nice opportunities as well.