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With Week 13 in the books, most leagues are now getting ready to start their playoffs. If you’ve survived the gauntlet and punched your ticket to the big dance, you have my sincerest congratulations. Given the way fantasy football is, you have to be just as lucky as you are informed in order to win more than you lose to reach the Promised Land. If not, well, just hit me up on Twitter (@rotobuzzguy) and let’s start talking some baseball. It’s never too early to start your prep work.

But whether you have another week of your regular season to go or you’re about to start up your playoff run, the strategy is exactly the same – just stay the course.  You stand by your studs who have gotten you this far and you don’t over-think your match-ups. None of this, “Should I start Marion Grice against Kansas City’s 21st-ranked run defense over C.J. Anderson because he’s facing Buffalo,” or “How about Nate Washington over Torrey Smith because the loss of Justin Hunter means he’ll see more work and has a better match-up?” Even entertaining such ridiculous notions, you’re finding a sure-fire way to lose your first-round game.

Since we’re all about the targets here, let’s touch on the Washington versus Smith example. The unfortunate injury, a lacerated spleen, sent Hunter to injured reserve and pushed Washington up the depth chart. He ended up with five catches on nine targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. Not bad, right? And with no Hunter anymore, he should be seeing similar target numbers, shouldn’t he? After all, the Giants pass defense ranks 25th in the league.

Now while I’m willing to concede that this match-up and situation probably elevates Washington’s potential value past the likes of a Riley Cooper or a Harry Douglas, when it comes to guys who have seen consistently strong targets numbers with solid production, someone like Smith, I’m sticking with the track records. Washington has been in similar situations before. He’s been the team’s No. 2 guy in the past and he’s played in favorable match-ups. Yet he never seems to come through on a regular basis. His overall numbers are relatively average and he’s often been more bust than boom. Meanwhile, Smith has been the go-to-guy in Baltimore and he has consistently seen more targets, accrued more yards and scored more touchdowns in his career. His match-up against Miami is a tough one, but he is still going to see his usual targets from Joe Flacco, he’s still more of a red zone threat, and he’s still the guy who has seven touchdowns in the last seven games. It’s about the consistency here.

Now obviously there are some cases where you have to look deeper into the match-ups. If you’re trying to decide between Davante Adams and Harry Douglas, then yes, a look into opposing pass defense numbers is important. But when it comes to choosing your starting lineup this week and beyond, remember who got you here. There are some guys you just never sit.

Now let’s look at the targets from Week 13.

Week 13 Target Leaders

 

, TE PIT – It’s been quite a long time since Miller showed his face in these parts. He’s obviously never been the same since suffering that debilitating knee injury, but in Week 13, he finally stepped up as a favorite target of Ben Roethlisberger. He did have one game earlier this season in which he saw 11 targets, but overall, the consistency with Miller lies in the 5-to-6 target range. After all, Big Ben has some serious receivers he can look to on a regular basis. Given the amount of passing the Steelers have done in recent weeks, you may be able to consider Miller a decent low-end TE1 option, but even with a potentially solid match-up, we’re not starting him over guys like Martellus Bennett or Antonio Gates.

Harry Douglas, WR ATL – We mentioned Douglas earlier because of how he stepped into the recent limelight, so let’s touch on that some more. With Roddy White out, he saw just as many targets as Julio Jones and even saw one more red zone look than he did. Should White be out again, can we expect to see this kind of work again from Douglas? Maybe. The Falcons don’t have a lot of depth at the position and they’re going to have to pass quite a bit to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and company. But again, you have to treat Douglas like Douglas and not just assume that he’s stepping out like some big time receiver. He gets a boost in the weekly rankings, but I’m not starting him over guys I’ve been using all year.

, TE WAS – It was a brilliant game for Reed as Redskins quarterback Colt McCoy needed someone to lean on in the short-passing game. But given Reed’s track record – the inconsistent play and the excessive number of injuries – he becomes a tough one to trust. When healthy and in the right match-up, he can be a dynamic player, but the trust factor limits my willingness to start him over some of the more consistent performers such as Delanie Walker or Greg Olsen.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

 

Target Percentage Leaders

/Michael Crabtree, WR SF – We’ve been talking about untrustworthy players so much that we can’t miss out on this situation. The gap in target percentage continues to widen between Boldin and Crabtree thanks to the shortcomings of Colin Kaepernick as a quarterback. We’ve pointed this out before, but with so much on the line right now, it bears another mention. Kaepernick has shown zero improvement in the way he sees the field and if he doesn’t specifically call Crabtree’s number in the huddle, then he’s looking Boldin’s way or running out of bounds. If the season ran on any longer, we just might see Crabtree’s target rate drop under 20-percent. Unless you have Boldin on your roster, starting any other 49ers receiver (or tight end) is beyond risky.

Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson, WR TB – If we wanted to stay ‘glass is half-empty, we could focus on Jackson’s recent loss of targets. However we’d like to remain mildly optimistic here and look at this more as an emergence of Evans. A changing of the guard if you will. We pointed this out a few weeks ago and based on the recent target distribution, we were correct in assuming that Evans was the new No. 1 in Tampa Bay. Of course, Evans had a terrible game this past week, but so did everyone on the Bucs’ roster. Jackson’s target rate has now dropped under 26-percent and Evans is about to go over 22-percent. Just to give you a frame of reference, following Week 9, Jackson’s was at 28.3-percent while Evans had a mark of 19.5-percent. ‘Nuff said.

Red Zone Targets

/Greg Olsen, CAR – Sometimes it’s just a matter of a quarterback having no other options. Get the Panthers down into the red zone and who’s the big threat? Um. How about the same two guys who are threats no matter where they are on the field? Where else is Cam Newton going to go? The overall offensive performance for Carolina is pretty weak, but at least you know that when they do get down into the red zone, these two are all they’ve got. It’s not the best option in the world, but considering their year-long totals, it ain’t too bad either.

Larry Donnell, TE NYG – Though he hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last two games, Donnell still has two in his last five as his red zone target percentage continues to climb. He’s catching up to previous Eli Manning-favorite Rueben Randle, yet still staying ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. Donnell may be a low-end option for actual targets and yards, but his red zone work certainly keeps his value up near respectability.

Potential Risers

Odell Beckham Jr.
Michael Floyd
Marques Colston
Antonio Gates
Heath Miller

Potential Fallers

Andrew Hawkins
Markus Wheaton
Riley Cooper
Michael Crabtree
Jared Cook

Week 14 Match-up to Watch

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers – We all know the Packers passing attack is one of the best and with a match-up against a super-soft Falcons defense, Aaron Rodgers should have no problem finding Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams downfield and in the endzone. But while the Packers pass defense ranks 14th and has some solid corners, the Falcons don’t have enough of a ground game to support the offense. Matt Ryan will have to employ more of a short-passing game and rely on Julio Jones and either Harry Douglas or Roddy White (depending on who’s healthy) gaining yards after the catch. But with the lead Green Bay will likely take, Ryan is going to have to chuck the ball early and often.

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