While Week 3 showed us that perhaps the pass was being relied on less and running backs were starting to see a nice increase in both carries and fantasy value, we get a showing like we did in Week 4 to remind us that passing is, indeed, the way of the NFL. Establishing the run early in a game is still crucial as it opens things up for an increased and more successful passing attack, but once those lanes open, it’s like an unstoppable river and fewer teams stick to the run. They might go back if they’re just trying to run off the clock in a blowout, but even with a lead in close games, many teams seem to be sticking with the pass.

Maybe it’s because the quality of running backs just isn’t where it used to be. This season’s top four fantasy picks – LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles – have all been busts in relation to the draft spots in which they were taken (okay, Forte hasn’t been completely awful but just one touchdown?), and with so many injuries and committee situations, they’ve become less reliable. The passing, though, is where it’s at. Just ask anyone in Buffalo why Kyle Orton is their new starter.

So with that, it’s time to take our weekly walk through the passing targets and see where you might be able to help your fantasy football teams, whether it’s off the waiver wire or just in making better lineup decisions. Let’s start with the leaders from Week 4 and pay particularly close attention to the tight ends on the rise in the Overall Target Leaders.

Week 4 Target Leaders

 

Jeremy Maclin, WR PHI -- As always, a quick nod to the weekly leader. Maclin has re-established himself as a high-end wideout, if not for anything than the fact that he is Nick Foles’ go-to guy.  He saw nearly 35-percent of the looks in Week 4 and owns a 27.7-percent overall target rate through the first four weeks. So long as the knee stays healthy, he’s going to see a ton of targets all year long.

, WR SD – Finally! After shuffling along through the first three weeks with little or nothing to show for his time on the field, Allen gets some love from Philip Rivers and the results were fantasy delicious. The 10 catches were a career-high for him and the 135 yards were music to his fantasy owners’ ears. Of course, the complete lack of red zone work, no touchdowns and watching Eddie Royal continue to hit pay dirt is incredibly frustrating, but things will soon balance out and Allen will likely be doing his own end zone dancing as well.  Just no praying, please.

Andre Holmes, WR OAK – With Rod Streater out for a few weeks and Derek Carr banged up, we saw a rekindling of the on-field bromance between Holmes and quarterback Matt McGloin. The two worked well together last season and have been steadily practicing with the second team this year, so with McGloin now under center , you can probably expect more. Obviously James Jones is still the go-to-guy, but when garbage-time hits, the Raiders will be airing it out as much as they can.

Jarius Wright, WR MIN --  While many who are in desperate need of a wide receiver  for the bye weeks will look to Wright’s Week 4 and consider him for this week’s match-up with the Packers, be very careful. Teddy Bridgewater is not expected to play due to an ankle injury. Christian Ponder is expected to step in and no one wants any of that. Wright should still see some targets, but at some point, the coaches have to wake up and start utilizing Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings a lot better.

, WR TB – The former Raiders wideout and chronic disappointment took a step forward this week thanks to the injury to rookie receiver Mike Evans. Keep in mind that he never would have seen even half those targets, let alone three red zone looks, had Evans been on the field, so check the injury report before you even consider using him. Nothing worse than blowing any percentage of your FAAB budget on a guy you’re never going to use and will likely drop the following week.

Brandon LaFell, WR NE – Here’s another one who is just too tough to trust on a regular basis. First off, it’s the Patriots, so it’s always tough to figure out their game plan. Second, he’s still pretty far down the depth chart and had the Chiefs not been blowing them out on Monday, it’s hard to imagine that LaFell would have seen so much work. Not to mention, the removal of Tom Brady late, in favor of Jimmy Garoppolo tielded some extra looks LaFell’s way. He’s a low-end bye-week replacement and shouldn’t be treated as anything but.

Overall Target Leaders

 

Target Percentage Leaders

Delanie Walker, TE TEN – While everyone on draft day was looking for Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, four weeks into the season, it’s Walker who is the most targeted receiver on the Titans, as evidenced by his 24.8-percent target rate. He’s shown some good hands with a strong catch rate and he’s also the go-to-guy inside the red zone. We highlighted him just after Week 1, but not only has he not slowed down even with the quarterback shuffle, he’s actually sped up.

, WR BUF – For obvious reasons, he remains the most targeted receiver in Buffalo, but should there be any concern with the shift from EJ Manuel to Kyle Orton? Both Robert Woods and Mike Williams saw an increase in work last week and Orton is a much more experienced passer who knows how to spread the ball around. It could actually come down to who Orton builds the rapport faster with. Watkins is the premier talent, for sure, so perhaps that blossoms even more with a pure passer under center. At worst, he stays the same, but an increase in looks could bump his game up more than just a level. These might not be your typical run-first Bills anymore.

Martellus Bennett, TE CHI – Granted, both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have been banged up, but do you see the work Bennett is doing in Chicago right now? The 134 yards he racked up in Week 4 were a career-high, and his four touchdowns rank second in the league right now. He’s the most-targeted offensive player for the Bears and his red zone target rate doesn’t sit that far behind that of Marshall. At some point Jay Cutler will find a groove with his top two wideouts, but it’s not likely that he forgets about Bennett and we should continue to see a high level of production from him this year.

Red Zone Target Leaders

, WR TB – Was Jackson’s touchdown catch – that knife in the back for all who picked the Steelers in their suicide pool last week – just the tip of the iceberg? It would be safe to assume yes. He and Mike Glennon have a solid on-field rapport and given the state of the Bucs defense, it also seems safe to assume that they’re going to be playing from behind quite a bit. While Jackson’s catch rate is surprisingly atrocious, yet again, he still has seven red zone looks this year and has a 41.2-percent red zone target rate. There doesn’t appear to be any reason to think the numbers will fall off as the veteran is sure to be leaned on heavily all year.

Jordy Nelson, WR GB – There shouldn’t be any reason for you to not have Nelson in your lineup each and every week, but if you’re thinking crazy at any point, then just remember that he leads the NFL with 11 red zone targets this year. Sure, Randall Cobb isn’t too far behind, but there’s nearly a 10-percent difference in their red zone target rates so we know in whose direction Aaron Rodgers is always looking.

Potential Risers

Eric Decker
Marques Colston
Terrance Williams
A.J. Green
Antonio Gates

Potential Fallers

Allen Hurns
Donnie Avery
Brandon LaFell
Riley Cooper
Justin Hunter

Week 5 Match-up to Watch

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants – The Giants really picked up their swagger (or salsa in Victor Cruz case) with their destruction of the Redskins last week. Eli Manning really found his groove hitting tight end Larry Donnell for three scores and Cruz for a total of 108 yards. The Falcons rank 22nd in the league against the tight end, 24th against teams’ No. 2 wideout (hello Rueben Randle) and have allowed 1,103 passing yards, second-worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan has the Falcons flying high and Julio Jones and Roddy White are nearly unstoppable. The Giants aren’t giving up a lot pf passing touchdowns, but they have allowed 1,018 passing yards and rank 17th in the league against the tight end. Throw that sleeper tag on Levine Toilolo.