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04 Jul

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2014 Fantasy Baseball ADP Report: Outfielders Part 1

An Early Look into Current ADP Among the Outfield Position

Slide 1 of 2 2014 Fantasy Baseball ADP Report: Outfielders | Slide - 1 FantasyAlarm.com

In this installment of the ADP Report we will be breaking down the outfield, which is one of, if not the deepest, positions heading into draft day. Although I will not cover ALL the outfielders I feel should be targeted this season, I will discuss players that have an ADP under 200 in the first of two portions of fantasy outfielders.

There has been some confusion of late as to whether or not these articles are rankings, so once again I will reiterate that these ARE NOT rankings. The players below are individuals who either gained or lost ADP value because of last season’s production, a change of uniforms or even a change in role with their current team. Remember, it is not wise to live and die by ADP data, but it should definitely be made a part of your preparation leading into draft day.

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Andrew McCutchen, OF (PIT)--4.41 ADP--When you win an MVP award your draft slot tends to go rise heading into the following season, and that is clearly the case for McCutchen. Outside of the obvious top two picks in 2014 (Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera), McCutchen has made his case to be picked directly after or within a few picks of the top two selections, and for good reason. McCutchen is one of only two players to hit at least 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in each of the last three seasons while producing quality fantasy numbers across the board. He is now hitting the prime of his career, so although this may like a steep price to pay for a player who won’t lead the league in any given category, his all around skill set makes him a great asset to build your team around.

Ryan Braun, OF (MIL)--10.95 ADP--The world came crashing down on Braun in 2013 after accepting a 65-game suspension for violations of baseball’s Basic Agreement and its Joint Drug Prevent and Treatment program which was season-ending. The biggest question heading into 2014 for Braun is whether or not he will still be able to produce quality fantasy statistics now that he is supposedly off the juice. Assuming he was not taking steroids from 2007-2012, there is still a good chance Braun finishes in the top 10 overall in fantasy based on his production in his first six years in the league. At his current ADP, it is definitely a risk worth taking knowing the upside he could bring either late in the first round or early in the second round.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (NYY)--11.58 ADP--Despite only reaching 150 games played one time in seven seasons with the Red Sox, Ellsbury landed a monster deal with the Yankees, which has driven up his ADP significantly. Since blasting 32 home runs in 2011, Ellsbury has hit only 13 since, over 880 at-bats. While there is a good chance his MVP-type season has become an outlier, he still could be able to reach double-digit home runs while stealing upwards of 40 stolen bases as long as he can stay healthy. Taking the scarcity of other positions and the depth at outfield, his current ADP is just too inflated for my liking. Not to mention, the Yankees are not a team that likes to let their players run freely on the base paths due to the power in their lineup, so it is unlikely Ellsbury reaches 50 steals for the second season in a row.

Yasiel Puig, OF (LAD)--22.15 ADP--After taking the league by storm following a June call-up in 2013, those wanting his services this season will have to pay a hefty price on draft day. There have already been reports from Spring Training indicating that Puig has packed on 26 pounds this offseason, which won’t bout well for the type of player he has become. Puig is a free-swinger, and if you examine his batting average by count, there was a significant drop off if he was unable to get a hit on the first pitch (0-0 count: .551 BA, 0-1 count: .318 BA, 0-2 count: .098 BA). Pitchers are going to eventually figure out how to pitch to Puig, and when they do, it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to keep his legend alive. I know I will not be willing to pay a second round pick to find out.

Justin Upton, OF (ATL)--39.84 ADP--In his first season with the Braves Upton started off hot (12 HR is April) but failed to keep that pace, hitting only 15 more long balls before season’s end. Although a 27-homer, 70-RBI season isn’t terrible, he just failed to take the next step in his progression, which many fantasy owners thought he would a season ago. This has dropped his ADP a few round since last year, and has actually made him somewhat of a value heading into draft day. Although it feels like he has been in the league for a long time, he is only 26. There is still room for him to improve and maybe this will be the year he turns into the MVP everyone expected a season ago.

Matt Kemp, OF (LAD)--47.48 ADP--After yet another season filled plagued with injuries, Kemp’s fantasy value has dropped significantly leading into the 2014 season. Kemp is still trying to get over his most recent injury, which is the ankle variety, and is expected to keep him sidelined for the Dodgers’ opening series in Australia. Looking at the outfield position as a whole, Kemp is the best example of a high risk-high reward player in 2014 knowing that he is capable of putting up monster numbers if he can just stay healthy. If news was to be released that he is progressing faster than expected, his draft stock would likely increase prior to draft day, but that does not appear to be the case with only a month before Opening Day.

Starling Marte, OF (PIT)--54.58 ADP--Although Marte’s fantasy value is predominantly on the base paths, he was able to post solid production elsewhere in 2013, which has inflated his fantasy value for the upcoming season. His 41 steals ranked him third in the National League in 2013, while sustaining a batting average of .280 through 510 at-bats. This was just his first full season with the Pirates, so there was some regression in the second half of the season (.54 BA in second half), but taking his minor leagues statistics into consideration he will likely not post a batting average under .275 in the big leagues. He is only 25-years-old, so there is still room for him to grow, just don’t expect too much in the power department, with the majority of his production coming from his ability to get on base (.343 OBP in ’13) and get into scoring position for the big boppers hitting behind him.

Continued...

ADP Source: National Fantasy Baseball Championship

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Searching for answer for the 2014 fantasy baseball season? Turn to a trusted source to enlighten you – Fantasy Alarm – and pick up your very own copy of the 2014 Fantasy Alarm Baseball Draft Guide. After reading the 200 pages of information you will be ready to dominate the competition in the coming season on your way to a fantasy baseball championship.

Slide 2 of 2 2014 Fantasy Baseball ADP Report: Outfielders | Slide - 2 FantasyAlarm.com

Billy Hamilton, OF (CIN)--70.54 ADP--Hamilton averaged one steal per game in his 13-game stint at the end of 2013, and has climbed all the way up to around the sixth round according to his current ADP. While he is a very exciting player when on the base paths, it is yet to be seen if he will be able to reach the record-setting production he set in his days in the minor leagues. There is a lot of risk involved in drafting him this year, but the reward could be worth it, especially if you are on the market for a one-trick pony who is a lock for 50-plus steals if he can stay healthy.

Jayson Werth, OF (WAS)--94.46 ADP--Although Werth has had his ups-and-downs over his three year stint with the Nationals, he was able to set a career-high in 2013 after finishing with a .318 batting average. Like most aging players, his speed has been on the decline for the last few seasons and provides little to no value in the steals department, which used to make up for his mediocre totals in other categories. To add to the declining speed, Werth has only one season in which he reached 150 games played since joining the Nationals, but his injury history appears to have already set his ADP back enough to make him a decent value around the seventh or eighth round.

Domonic Brown, OF (PHI)--110.53 ADP--Brown's 2013 production can be very deceiving, considering he hit 17 of his 27 home runs over two months of the season. This production has inflated his draft stock slightly, but at the age of only 26, prospective owners still have plenty to look forward to in 2014. While it is unlikely he hits 30-plus home runs, Brown will be hitting in the heart of the Phillies order and will have plenty of RBI opportunities as long as the top three hitters continue to get on base at a high clip.  

Leonys Martin, OF (TEX)--129.52 ADP--Although Martin may be overshadowed by some of the bigger names on the Rangers roster, he still makes for a great addition to a fantasy team in most formats. He was able to contribute significantly on the base paths in 2013, totally 36 stolen bases, while converting 80 percent of his chances. The reason behind hitting only eight home runs has a direct correlation to his very low fly-ball rate, which was less than 30 percent a season ago. If he could raise that number to at least say 40 percent, you could more than likely add at least 10 home runs to his total moving forward, playing his home games in Arlington. If that could happen, we could be looking at the next player to join the 20/20 club as long has he can improve his patience at the plate. At his current ADP he is the ideal upside pick to fill a second or third outfield slot.

Austin Jackson, OF (DET)--150.81 ADP--Jackson came crashing back down to earth in 2013, after a very encouraging 2012 season in which he managed to hit .300 despite striking out 134 times. Last season, he wasn’t so lucky and ended up dropping off in every fantasy category, including runs scored which was his bread and butter the last few seasons. There is still some time for Jackson to bounce back, considering he is only 27, but it is unlikely he will ever repeat his breakout 2012 season, which inflated his draft stock a year ago. Now sitting in the mid-rounds in 12-team leagues, Jackson will likely do enough to warrant a roster spot as a third outfielder, just don’t expect too much or you might be disappointed with the result.

Michael Bourn, OF (CLE)--187.49 ADP--After a season and a half of sold production with the Braves, Bourn sign a lucrative deal with the Indians last offseason but failed to live up to his contract. Playing in only 130 games, Bourn finished the season with only 23 stolen bases, which was his lowest total since 2007. When the majority of your fantasy production relies on getting on base and swiping bags, 232 steals just won’t cut it. This has dropped his fantasy value significantly, and has actually made him a value heading into draft day. Bourn is said to be at 100 percent health at Spring Training, after undergoing surgery to repair his left hamstring. As long as he can keep his legs fresh, which he has for his whole career prior to 2013, there is no reason to think he can’t get back to the 40-steal range as long as the team doesn’t baby him when on board to prevent further injury.

George Springer, OF (HOU)--195.84 ADP--Although he is not expected to land in Houston to start the season, there is a lot of hype circulating around Springer this offseason. Springer posted 37 home runs with 108 RBI and 45 stolen bases through two minor league levels a season ago and is more than ready to take the next step in his career. The Astros aren’t going to be contenders anytime soon, so there is really no reason to start his arbitration clock too early, so a call-up after the June deadline is the most likely scenario. However, it is a risk to take him in redraft leagues this early knowing that there is still a chance he could end up stuck in the minors the whole year. The juice is definitely worth the squeeze, but how much of his five-tool production will you be getting in 2014? Or will most of his work come in the minor leagues? Those are the questions you need to answer for yourself.

Be sure to check back later in the week when I break down outfielders who currently have an ADP over 200 in recent qualified drafts.

ADP Source: National Fantasy Baseball Championship

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Searching for answer for the 2014 fantasy baseball season? Turn to a trusted source to enlighten you – Fantasy Alarm – and pick up your very own copy of the 2014 Fantasy Alarm Baseball Draft Guide. After reading the 200 pages of information you will be ready to dominate the competition in the coming season on your way to a fantasy baseball championship.


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