Back in mid-July we touched on a few players from each position that were either being overlooked or overvalued in early mock drafts according to average draft position (ADP). Now with fantasy drafts underway it is essential to revisit those players to see how they have risen or fallen over a few weeks span. This type of research will help you separate yourself from the rest of the pack as you try to set yourself up for a championship season.
Let us first take a look at some of the undervalued players from the original article (Early ADP Reports
, RB (PHI)--13.72 ADP--McCoy has slowly started to move up in mock drafts, after being being a late second round pick when we last discussed his position. The Eagles new offensive scheme will fit McCoy's skill set very well, so if he falls anywhere in the second round, consider that a steal.
, WR (DEN)--16.06 ADP--Thomas makes one of the biggest jumps at his position since he last visited his ADP, going from a late third round pick to an early second round selection. He is now sitting behind only Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant among wide receivers, which is right were he should be considering his situation in the Mile High City.
, RB (OAK)--34.11 ADP--It looks like thoughts of McFadden being a value pick are starting to slip away, as he jumps to the third round in recent mock drafts. As mentioned in my Contract Year Players
Article, McFadden is playing for a new contract this offseason, so that added chip on his shoulder could give him some incentive to complete a full season for the first time in his career.
, QB (WAS)--132.56 ADP--I thought Griffin was a steal in my previous breakdown, but now that he has fallen this far, it is now highway robbery. There is some risk involved in drafting him this season, but at this current draft slot, risk is completely out of the picture. Currently 11th quarterback coming off the board, with top five potential.
, TE (SF)--45.00 ADP--Apparently in late July mock drafters forgot about Davis, who was going off the board just inside the top 100 players. He has made a significant jump over the last few weeks, and is sitting now where I expected all along. If the news from Niners camp holds true, and they utilize him more as a wide receiver, he could be in for a career year.
Now for some overvalued (Original Article: Early ADP Reports
, WR (DAL)--13.56 ADP--I am still not buying-in on Bryant. There hasn't been much movement over the last few weeks, however, A.J. Green has now passed him out, which should not be much of a surprise. The talent is there, but is he strong enough mentally to hold up for a full season? I am not willing to take that chance.
, RB (ATL)--25.89 ADP--Jackson has started to slip down draft boards, and rightfully so. He was being selected ahead of LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice and Stevan Ridley back on July 19, and has since been passed by all except for the Patriots running back. I am not saying avoid Steven Jackson, considering he is in a great situation, but he should not be taken before the third round.
, RB (DEN)--41.83 ADP--Ball has fallen down in the ADP charts since late July, dropping all most two rounds in early mock drafts. This is where he belongs, considering Ronnie Hillman will likely be a factor in the Broncos running game as well this season. This is still a little early for me to consider taking Ball, but I am more conservative when it comes to drafting running backs.
, QB (SF)--115.94 ADP--I think by now most of you know how i feel about Kaepernick, especially if you read by overvalued article. But now that has dropped significantly over the last few weeks (45.75 ADP on 7/19) he has actually turned into somewhat of a bargain. He is still going earlier than some quarterbacks higher on my rankings (Tony Romo, Robert Griffin), but it is all about value, and there is a lot of upside if this draft slot holds true.
Other ADP Observations
, RB (BUF)--3.28 ADP--"It's real simple: We're going to give [Spiller] the ball until be throws up," said offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. That probably played a factor into Spiller's jump to the No. 3 player overall in early mocks, which is well deserved. He proved what he is capable of doing last season, despite dealing with a few injuries, so a healthy year should help him take the next step in his fantasy production.
, WR (CHI)--20.56 ADP--As of August 10, Marshall is the sixth wide receiver going off the board in mock drafts, which is only one two spots off from where I have him ranked this season. If Marshall fell to me late in the second round, which is where he is currently being drafted, I would accept him with open arms, especially taking into consideration the new offensive scheme.
, TE (NE)--27.06 ADP--Although the likely scenario has Gronkowski starting the season on the PUP list, which would mean he would lose the first six games, he is still being taken as the second tight end overall behind Jimmy Graham. If this situation holds true, he will likely fall further down draft boards, but there is no telling how long it will take for the Patriots to make a decision on his future. There are plenty of tight ends with upside this season, so avoiding Gronkowski would be the best on draft day.
, RB (MIA)--37.22 ADP--The Dolphins revamped their offense this offseason, with Miller being the likely candidate to take over for Reggie Bush this year. Miller is lighting fast, but has had his share of injuries, including an ankle injury already this preseason. While I think you need to take chances if you want to win a fantasy championship, I Miller needs to fall a little more before I would consider targeting him.
, WR (BAL)--37.56 ADP--Is it me or is Smith being drafted too early according to early mock drafts? Currently, he is going off the board ahead of Randall Cobb, Victor Cruz, Marquez Colston and Vincent Jackson just to name a few. All those players I have ranked ahead of Smith entering the season. Sorry, but he will never be on any of my teams, especially considering the bulk of his fantasy production came in two weeks, and he went over 100-yard mark only twice in 2012.
Danny Amendola, WR (NE)--47.33 ADP--I know Amendola is the same type of receiver as Wes Welker, but give me a break. Do you really think he is better than Welker? According to early mock drafts, he is going almost three rounds ahead of him which is crazy in my opinion. Until he proves he can produce in the Patriots offense can't not recommend drafting Amendola as a top 20 wide receiver, which is where he is currently slotted.
, RB (PIT)--56.44 ADP--You want upside? If so, Bell is the type of running back you will want to target in draft day. He has the ability to run for tough yards and is able to be utilized in the passing game making him an every down back in his first year with the Steelers. As long as he can stay healthy through the preseason the writing is on the wall for Bell to win the starting job, so expect his ADP to climb as we inch closer to the Week 1 of the regular season.
, QB (IND)--59.00 ADP--With a new West Coast offense expected to open up the Colts passing game, many early drafters have taken Luck a lot earlier than expected. Currently, he is coming off the board as the seventh overall quarterback, when he should be No. 10 at best. Drafting him in the late fifth round is somewhat early, considering Matthew Stafford is going almost four rounds later just doesn't seem right. He just doesn't belong in the top tier of quarterbacks just yet.
, TE (NYG)--98.78 ADP--It may be his first season with the Giants, but did everyone forget how well Myers performed in 2012. He finished ranked fourth in receptions and sixth in receiving yards among tight ends a year ago, but his lack of touchdowns (4 TD in 2012) scare prospective owners away. Eli Manning loves targeting his tight ends, as we have seen in years past, so considering his current ADP, he could be the steal of the year at his position.
, RB (CIN)-- 88.61 ADP/92.61 ADP--The Bengals have committed to Green-Ellis to start the season, but according the early mock drafts, there isn't much faith in The Law Firm. Bernard figures to be the primary backup and will continue to develop throughout the season, but is just a few bad games away from taking over the role. My suggestion: Stay away from his situation. It is only going to more headaches than fantasy value down the road.
, RB (NYJ)--114.28 ADP--The Saints parted ways with their injury prone backup running back this offseason, but he will now find himself as the primary running back for the Jets to start the season. Ivory has the skill set to be very successful in the NFL, but there are many question marks in New Jersey this season, especially at quarterback, that could limit his upside. There is really no risk in drafting him this late, as he could end up being a top 20 running back by season's end.
Be sure to check back to Rotoinfo.com for more preseason fantasy football analysis as the season approaches!
All average draft position data was collected from MockDraftCental
Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org. Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information. And, to make setting your Fantasy Football lineup easy, be sure to utilize RotoInfo.com’s new NFL Lineup Grids.