After reviewing some of the players I feel are being undervalued, now it is time to evaluate some players that I consider overvalued. Staying away from the players below could potentially help you find great values come draft day, if their current average draft positions hold true. Remember, ADP reports are only one tool to utilize when preparing for fantasy drafts, but they should definitely be reviewed to get a better feel for when players will be available for you to draft.
, WR (DAL)--14.00 ADP--No one has ever questioned the talent of Dez Bryant, but to be an early second round pick in early mock drafts seems to be somewhat of a joke. Currently, Bryant is coming off the board ahead of both A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall, despite only surpassing 10 receptions twice in 2012. He did score 12 touchdowns a season ago, which was third most among wide receivers with 10 of those touchdowns coming after Week 8. Don't get me wrong, I do like Bryant heading into 2013, but in the second round I would rather go with one of the aforementioned stud wide receivers.
, RB (ATL)--18.50 ADP--The Falcons landed Steven Jackson this offseason after parting ways with Michael Turner, and is now finally with a team that could bring him to the promise land. At his current position in early mock drafts Jackson is going ahead of running backs that are in better situations and that have youth on their side, including LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice and Stevan Ridley. Don't forget, Jackson has rushed the ball over 230 times in all but one year since coming into the league, and the year he as under that total was his rookie season. There are many other running backs to take that could produce the same value, if not more, than Jackson this season that could be had much alter if these early ADP reports hold true.
, WR (HOU)--23.50 ADP--Andre Johnson is coming off arguably his best season of his career in 2012, setting a career-high in yardage, playing in all 16 games for the first time since 2009, but does that make him a second round pick? Think again. Currently, there are at least two wide receivers I would rather own going ahead of him in early mock drafts, including Demaryius Thomas and Roddy White, both of which are in better situations on their given teams. Considering Johnson's injury history, it would be wise to go with a safer play that early in the game.
Montee Ball, RB (DEN)--28.75 ADP--The writing is on the wall in Denver for Montee Ball to be the team's starting running back heading into training camp, but does that warrant such an extreme jump in early mock drafts? Rookies are very hard to judge when making the jump from college football to the NFL, especially at the skill positions. Lets not forget that the Broncos have a plethora of running backs currently on the roster, so even if he starts Week 1 that doesn't necessarily mean it will be his job the following week. I have gotten burnt in the past on over-hyped rookies (thanks for nothing Ryan Mathews) and it looks like that could happen again if he does in fact starting going off the board early third round.
, WR (KC)--41.50 ADP--Is there a more frustrating wide receiver in the league than Dwayne Bowe? After a breakout 2011 campaign in which he ranked up 15 touchdowns, he has only crossed the endzone eight times since with three scores in 13 games a season ago. There is a new regime in Kansas City headed by one of the best offensive minds in all of football, but with Alex Smith throwing him the ball it is a real head-scratcher seeing him going off the board where he has in early mock drafts. There are a pile of wide receivers that I would rather have than Bowe going at least one round later than him (Harvin, Cruz, Cobb, Nicks, Wallace), so be sure to explore other options come draft day.
, QB (SF)--45.75 ADP--I am still trying to figure out exactly why Colin Kaepernick is going off the board ahead of more proven quarterbacks like Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford, both of which are going almost two rounds behind him in early mock drafts. Did everyone forget that he started only eight regular season games? What about a sophomore slump? Even some of the better quarterbacks in the league went through a sophomore slump after a great rookie campaign (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco), so the fact that he is currently ranked as the eight best quarterback seems a bit crazy to me. But what do I know, I am only a fantasy sports writer.
, WR (GB)--48.25 ADP--The Packers parted ways with Greg Jennings this offseason, which has now opened the door fro Jordy Nelson to step in as the team's No. 1 option in the passing game. Although that is a great title to have, Aaron Rodgers spreads the ball out so much that it is hard to rely on Packers' wide receivers on a regular basis. I am not saying that Nelson is a bad pick by any means, but where he is currently slotted seems high to me. A name that has been mentioned a lot in this articles has been Percy Harvin, and Nelson is currently going off the board ahead of his which is just crazy. Not to mention the Packers now appears to have a running game, which could have a negative impact on his role in the offense.
Be sure to check back to Rotoinfo.com for more preseason fantasy football analysis as the season approaches!
All average draft position data was collected from MockDraftCental
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