We are nearing the beginning of the regular season, so this series of articles about late round sleepers will soon be coming to an end. Of course, that means that I will soon be starting the two-start pitcher and streaming pitching articles for the balance of the season, so stay tuned. In the meantime, here is the ninth article in this series, covering a player who has a lot going for him but also provides some concerns. But then, don’t all pitchers offer some risk?

To recap what these articles are about, I will be discussing starting pitchers that are being drafted in the 15th round or later based on their current ADPs. Note that I am assuming a 12-team league when determining which players are going after the 14th round, and thus if you play in a smaller or larger sized league, you will need to adjust the round accordingly. The ADP of 169 is a baseline, however, denoting where in any draft the player is being taken.

If you are late to the party, you can always see the first three installments on the site. There was some useful information in those early article opening paragraphs, at least in my opinion, but I tend to get bored publishing the same old, same old twice a week. Even so, I tried to distill some useful advice about drafting starting pitching in those first three articles.

I will be profiling one (or at most two) later round options in the starting pitching realm on a twice-weekly basis, just as I did last season. If you have questions about any pitchers and their viability as a “sleeper” pick, hit me up at ia@fantasyalarm.com and I will do my best to provide some insight. Also, I am always available to answer starting pitching (or other fantasy baseball) questions all season long.

Jake OdorizziRHPTampa Bay Rays

2016 Stats: 187.2 IP, 3.69 ERA, 166 K, 1.19 WHIP

Current ADP

Mock Draft Army ADP: 191.83 (based on current ADPs generated by Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army results)

National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC): 186.85

FSTA Draft on January 23rd, 2017: Drafted 15th round (194th overall)

Availability

His ADP fits well within the parameters of these articles, as he is truly a middle round pick in drafts this season. Depending on your drafting style and that of your league mates, he profiles as a SP3/4, unless you want to wait overly long to set up your rotation. Not my style, but to each his own. He has been dropping down the ADP lists since the FSTA draft in January, but not a ton.

Upside

He does provide decent strikeout potential, although nothing elite. A 7.96 K/9 ratio is certainly useful for your third or fourth starting pitcher, as is a 3.69 ERA. He has an average strand rate, which helps keeps his ERA in line, along with a useful WHIP rate over the past four seasons. I project him to pitch close to 190 innings, as his health is not a question mark at this point, and he should deliver double digit wins for his owners this season. He exhibits decent control (2.59 BB/9 last season), but nothing exceptional. Still, for a third SP, that is nothing to discount, but rather something to strive for in your drafts.

Downside

Despite his 3.69 ERA in 2016, he was a bit lucky, as his FIP of 4.37 indicates he was a bit lucky as does his .280 BABIP. He has a good set peripherals, I just worry that low 90s fastball and elevated 1.4 HR/9 rate denote a potential for disaster this coming season. He does not generate a lot of groundballs, with a .91 GB/FB ratio, which helps to explain his propensity to issue the long balls both at home and on the road. . His team is not one I expect to content for a division title, so that also limits his value in 2017.

Summary

We are not seeking to deliver to you, valued reader, your top line starting pitchers in these articles. Instead, what is being suggested here are pitchers you can target in the middle rounds of your draft that provide you with significant value for a low price. Odorizzi hovers around that range, providing good ratio production and decent counting stats. You should be worried about his tendency to allow homers, as his flyball tendencies can be dangerous. His FIP and BABIP numbers also cause concern, as he could just as easily blow up as be an effective SP in 2017, especially with a non-contending team. I would draft him as my fourth SP, if he sticks around that long, but I would expect some other owner will be rostering the Tampa Bay righty at a cost too high for my tastes.