This is more like it. Plenty of mid-tier options for your consideration this week, although that comes at the cost of pitchers in the top and bottom tiers. Not that we should be upset that the bottom tier is much more empty this week.

Just a heads up to those who read these articles weekly. I will be off on vacation for the next couple of weeks, which will cut into my time to provide lengthy analysis of the mid-tier choices for Weeks 14 and 15. The articles will still be published, just not as lengthy as usual. Fortunately, we now have the Fantasy Alarm Forums available for you to post queries, and I am one of the moderators so I should see any SP questions. The same restrictions apply to the Sunday Streaming Pitching piece I write every week, but this minor inconvenience will be over before you know it. Patience is a virtue, I am advised, but as David Byrne once said, I don't have the time. Hopefully, however, you will survive.

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:

 

Start 'em If You Own 'em

 

Starting Pitcher

First Start/Opponent/Date

Second Start/Opponent/Date

Jake Arrieta CHC

@ CIN Dan Straily

@ NYM Noah Syndergaard

 

Mon 6/27 7:10 PM ET

Sat 7/2 7:15 PM ET

Jon Lester CHC

@ CIN John Lamb

@ NYM Matt Harvey

 

Tue 6/28 7:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:10 PM ET

Noah Syndergaard NYM

@ WAS Tanner Roark

vs. CHC Jake Arrieta

 

Mon 6/27 7:05 PM ET

Sat 7/2 7:15 PM ET

Cole Hamels TEX

@ NYY CC Sabathia 

@ MIN Kyle Gibson

 

Tue 6/28 7:05 PM ET

Sun 7/3 2:10 PM ET

Corey Kluber CLE

@ ATL John Gant

@ TOR Marco Estrada 

 

Mon 6/27 7:10 PM ET

Sat 7/2 1:07 PM ET

Matt Harvey NYM

@ WAS Joe Ross

vs. CHC Jon Lester

 

Tue 6/28 7:05 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:10 PM ET

Jeff Samardzija SF

vs. OAK Daniel Mengden P

@ ARI Patrick Corbin

 

Mon 6/27 10:15 PM ET

Sat 7/2 10:10 PM ET

Jose Quintana CHW

vs. MIN Kyle Gibson

@ HOU Collin McHugh

 

Tue 6/28 8:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 2:10 PM ET

I am not entirely certain that Harvey, Samardzija and Quintana are set and forget options, but these three SPs are quality options, even if they have been scuffling on and off lately. I still believe in them, and will be plugging them in for both starts where I have the opportunity. You may disagree, especially given Harvey's matchups, but I would urge you to employ Samardzija and Quintana in both of their first starts of the scoring period.

 

Maybe Yes, Maybe No

 

Starting Pitcher

First Start/Opponent/Date

Second Start/Opponent/Date

Trevor Bauer CLE

@ ATL Matt Wisler

@ TOR J.A. Happ

 

Tue 6/28 7:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:07 PM ET

Tanner Roark WAS

vs. NYM Noah Syndergaard

vs. CIN Dan Straily

 

Mon 6/27 7:05 PM ET

Sat 7/2 7:15 PM ET

Joe Ross WAS

vs. NYM Matt Harvey

vs. CIN John Lamb

 

Tue 6/28 7:05 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:35 PM ET

Matt Shoemaker LAA

vs. HOU Collin McHugh

@ BOS Eduardo Rodriguez

 

Mon 6/27 10:05 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:35 PM ET

Julio Urias LAD

@ MIL Chase Anderson

vs. COL Jon Gray

 

Tue 6/28 8:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 4:10 PM ET

Blake Snell TB

vs. BOS Eduardo Rodriguez

vs. DET Justin Verlander

 

Mon 6/27 7:10 PM ET

Sat 7/2 4:10 PM ET

Adam Wainwright STL

@ KC Danny Duffy

vs. MIL Jimmy Nelson

 

Mon 6/27 8:15 PM ET

Sat 7/2 2:15 PM ET

Michael Wacha STL

@ KC Yordano Ventura 

vs. MIL Chase Anderson

 

Tue 6/28 8:15 PM ET

Sun 7/3 2:15 PM ET

Danny Duffy KC

vs. STL Adam Wainwright

@ PHI Aaron Nola

 

Mon 6/27 8:15 PM ET

Sat 7/2 5:50 PM ET

Daniel Mengden OAK

@ SF Jeff Samardzija

vs. PIT TBA

 

Mon 6/27 10:15 PM ET

Sat 7/2 10:05 PM ET

Matt Wisler ATL

vs. CLE Trevor Bauer

vs. MIA Adam Conley

 

Tue 6/28 7:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 8:05 PM ET

Marco Estrada TOR

@ COL Jon Gray

vs. CLE Corey Kluber

 

Mon 6/27 8:40 PM ET

Sat 7/2 1:07 PM ET

Chris Archer TB

vs. BOS Rick Porcello

vs. DET Mike Pelfrey

 

Tue 6/28 7:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:10 PM ET

Adam Conley MIA

@ DET Mike Pelfrey

@ ATL Matt Wisler

 

Tue 6/28 7:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 8:05 PM ET

J.A. Happ TOR

@ COL Eddie Butler

vs. CLE Trevor Bauer

 

Tue 6/28 8:40 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:07 PM ET

Kendall Graveman OAK

@ SF Albert Suarez

vs. PIT Francisco Liriano

 

Tue 6/28 10:15 PM ET

Sun 7/3 4:05 PM ET

Collin McHugh HOU

@ LAA Matt Shoemaker

vs. CHW Jose Quintana

 

Mon 6/27 10:05 PM ET

Sun 7/3 2:10 PM ET

CC Sabathia NYY

vs. TEX Cole Hamels

@ SD Luis Perdomo

 

Tue 6/28 7:05 PM ET

Sun 7/3 4:40 PM ET

Scott Kazmir LAD

@ PIT Francisco Liriano

vs. COL Chad Bettis

 

Mon 6/27 12:35 PM ET

Sat 7/2 10:10 PM ET

Yordano Ventura KC

vs. STL Michael Wacha

@ PHI Adam Morgan

 

Tue 6/28 8:15 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:35 PM ET

Jon Gray COL

vs. TOR Marco Estrada 

@ LAD Julio Urias

 

Mon 6/27 8:40 PM ET

Sun 7/3 4:10 PM ET

Albert Suarez SF

vs. OAK Kendall Graveman

@ ARI Robbie Ray

 

Tue 6/28 10:15 PM ET

Sun 7/3 4:10 PM ET

Robbie Ray ARI

vs. PHI Adam Morgan

vs. SF Albert Suarez

 

Mon 6/27 9:40 PM ET

Sun 7/3 4:10 PM ET

Big changes to the middle tier in Week 13. I could break this down into more than three sub-tiers, but will go with tradition. The top tier opens with Bauer and ends with Duffy. Bauer has been looking sharp, racking up the strikeouts and avoiding his biggest problem in the past, the long ball. He is also generating an exceptional number of groundballs (1.90 GB/FB over 84.1 innings). I like his first start in Atlanta, especially, but would not hesitate to employ his services in his second start in Toronto with his recent success. Rotationmates Roark and Ross both have a pair of home starts in Week 13. Admittedly, they are not going to fool anyone into thinking they are ace-material, but both provide good strikeout potential, and they both limit homers. They do face off against the Mets in division matchups, but as noted above, they are at home and I would roll with either or both. Shoemaker still has an unattractive 4.43 ERA, but that has been trending downward steadily over the season. He is an excellent K option, and has excellent control. He is the ace for the Angels and is working on a stretch of six QS in his last seven starts. HIs offense is not the best, but he is a top option for two starts this week. Take advantage of your opportunities to use Urias, as it seems probable that he will be removed from the rotation to limit his innings in the near future. Take advantage of his 11.67 K/9 while you can.

Another rookie you want to use while you can, Snell is probably not on as short a leash right now as Urias. He is also not as dominant out of the gate, but should start improving on his average whiff numbers as he gets more comfortable at the major league level. His control has been shaky, too, but that's a trend we have seen in him during his time in the minors, too. Pitching at home against a couple of good hitting teams is a point in his favor, and thus he makes the upper sub-tier. Just be advised, he may be trending down the middle tier if these starts do not go well. Wainwright has righted his ship, but is still not the former dominant SP he once was. He is showing good control, but a below-average K rate this season (6.41 K/9). He has tossed six QS in his last seven starts, just like Shoemaker, but pitches for a better offensive team. Still, the lack of swing and miss stuff pushes him down a bit in the rankings. Wacha is working off a pair of quality starts, the last a victory over the Cubs. He is just an average strikeout guy, with questionable control, but gets the job done due to his ability to keep the ball in the yard (0.7 HR/) and generate grounders (1.75 GB/FB). I especially like his second start at home against the Brewers this week, although I would not flinch in using him on the road against the Royals, either.

Duffy is just a pitcher I cannot get fully behind. It is a personal prejudice, I am afraid. It is his inconsistent control that bothers me most, although both his strikeout and walk rates on the season are superb (10.89 K/9, 2.45 BB/9 through 58.2 innings). That, plus his inflated homer rate this season of 1.53 HR/9, up from his usual sub homer per nine innings over the past four seasons. Despite my personal issues with Duffy, I do like him in both starts.

The middle sub-tier begins with Mengden and runs down through Graveman. I will confess that the homers Mengden has allowed so far concern me, as he has let a hitter go yard on him in each of his three starts. He looks to have recovered his control, and the Ks are superb. Facing a couple of teams not firing on all cylinders offensively makes him worth a shot this scoring period. Plus, I have been known to express faith in young pitchers that Billy Beane likes. Wisler cannot buy a win in most of his starts, but that is a function of his team's offense, not his particular skill set. Granted, he is a mediocre whiff artist, and has just average control, but he does generally pitch deep enough into his starts to provide a QS. A pair of home starts this week, which is neither here nor there.

Estrada worries me in his first start, as it takes place in Coors and he has a 0.7 GB/FB ratio on the season. Other than having to pitch in the Rockies' home park, he is a great option, sporting a fine 2.70 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his 14 starts this season. Archer sure has disappointed his owners this season, but there is hope. He is still putting up excellent strikeout numbers with a 10.57 K/9 rate, although not being able to demonstrate control or command explains his relative lack of success in 2016. He has to face both Boston and Detroit in Week 13, but gets both teams at home where he has been much more effective this season. Start him if you believe in his confidence in himself, hedge your bets otherwise. Conley was an early season sleeper, and the results, while not over the top fantastic, have been serviceable. He has a good K rate (8.21 K/9) and keeps the ball within the fences (0.7 HR/9). That last skill will help when he faces the Tigers at Comerica Park in his first start, and you have to like almost any SP that is facing the Braves this season.

Happ had made the top tier not so long ago in this analysis, and promptly made me look bad. He is now where he belongs, in the middle of those pitchers that have general utility. He has poor control and strikeout ability, and can pitch seven or be out of the game early enough to not qualify for a victory. He heads to Colorado for his first start, and given his 1.1 HR/9 ratio, that is a concern. I like him slightly better at home against the Indians, but not a ton as he has been better on the road than at the Rogers Centre. Graveman went through a tough stretch after earning my praise earlier this season, but remember, he is a young pitcher with Oakland, generally a source of success in my experience. He is working on a stretch of two QS, but both were against the Angels. He does not strikeout many hitters, pitching more to contact and generating grounders at a terrific pace (2.24 GB/FB over his 75 innings pitched in 2016). Neither the Giants or Pirates are offensive juggernauts of late, so his two matchups are decent and pitching in San Francisco and Oakland generally helps a pitcher as opposed to the opposing hitters.

The final sub-tier starts with McHugh and wraps with Ray. McHugh is coming off a nice seven inning, five hit, two earned run effort that did not result in a victory, yet again. He has been unlucky this season, with an elevated BABIP of .359 and a FIP of 3.80, which is nearly a full run below his elevated 4.70 ERA over his 15 starts this season. Neither matchup is terrible, nor are they especially tempting in Week 13. If you believe he is due for a positive regression, then plop him into your rotation. Sabathia has been a perennial subject of mine this season, whether here or as a streaming option profiled on Sundays. He offers average K numbers, and an excellent 0.4 K/9 rate over his 69.2 innings pitched in 2016. Beware, though, as he did turn his ankle in his last start and while x-rays were negative, his status is not fully confirmed. If he is given the green light, though, I would not hesitate to start him in both his scheduled appearances. Kazmir managed to pitch through the sixth inning in his last start, something that he has failed to do in the prior three starts to open June. He needs to pitch deeper into games to make his strikeout ability have value. He gets to face the Pirates on the road, in a decent pitchers' venue, and avoids having to square off against Colorado on the road, getting a home start for his second appearance. Not my favorite starter, but serviceable for certain.

Ventura is done with his suspension for hitting Manny Machado. His inconsistency on the mound and in general is frustrating, and he should be better at making batters miss his pitches with the stuff he shows on the mound. The lack of control hurts him, to be sure, but neither matchup is overly scary this week. I may not trust him, but feel free to trot him out there if you have more confidence. The Royals, though, are hard to doubt as a team. Gray only pitched four innings in his last outing, leaving with arm fatigue. Gray says he is fine, now, though, and is an elite strikeout pitcher with a 9.74 K/9 on the year. He has control issues, though, and has been less than stellar at home, with a 5.02 ERA at Coors. Of course, he also has a 4.65 ERA on the road. I would avoid his first start when the Blue Jays invade Denver, and use him when he heads out to face the Dodgers in LA on Sunday.

Suarez is filling in for the injured Matt Cain, and while he does not generally have the stamina to pitch deep into games, he can pitch to contact, shows good control and limits home runs. The lack of Ks is an negative, of course, along with the limited ability to collect a victory. I would prefer to use him in his first start against the A's at home, over his second appearance in Arizona and a less pitcher-friendly park. Ray is another frustrating SP, who can briefly shine and then go in the toilet. His command comes and goes, although you have to like his 10.42 K/9 rate over his 15 2016 starts. He gets to face the beatable Phillies at home, and wraps up Week 13 with the Giants coming to Chase Field, which is not a terrible matchup as San Francisco is not a team with tons of power, a concern for Ray this season with a 1.34 HR/9 rate.

 

Not On My Roster

 

Starting Pitcher

First Start/Opponent/Date

Second Start/Opponent/Date

Dan Straily CIN

vs. CHC Jake Arrieta

@ WAS Tanner Roark

 

Mon 6/27 7:10 PM ET

Sat 7/2 7:15 PM ET

Chase Anderson MIL

vs. LAD Julio Urias

@ STL Michael Wacha

 

Tue 6/28 8:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 2:15 PM ET

John Gant ATL

vs. CLE Corey Kluber

vs. MIA Jose Fernandez

 

Mon 6/27 7:10 PM ET

Sat 7/2 4:10 PM ET

John Lamb CIN

vs. CHC Jon Lester

@ WAS Joe Ross

 

Tue 6/28 7:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:35 PM ET

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA

vs. PIT Jonathon Niese

vs. BAL TBA

 

Tue 6/28 10:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 4:10 PM ET

Kyle Gibson MIN

@ CHW Jose Quintana

vs. TEX Cole Hamels

 

Tue 6/28 8:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 2:10 PM ET

Ivan Nova NYY

vs. TEX TBA

@ SD Drew Pomeranz

 

Mon 6/27 7:05 PM ET

Sat 7/2 10:10 PM ET

Mike Pelfrey DET

vs. MIA Adam Conley

@ TB Chris Archer

 

Tue 6/28 7:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:10 PM ET

Adam Morgan PHI

@ ARI Robbie Ray

vs. KC Yordano Ventura 

 

Mon 6/27 9:40 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:35 PM ET

Eduardo Rodriguez BOS

@ TB Blake Snell

vs. LAA Matt Shoemaker

 

Mon 6/27 7:10 PM ET

Sun 7/3 1:35 PM ET

Francisco Liriano PIT

vs. LAD Scott Kazmir

@ OAK Kendall Graveman

 

Mon 6/27 12:35 PM ET

Sun 7/3 4:05 PM ET

As I say nearly every week, avoid these pitchers unless you like to take a ton of risk with your fantasy team's success on a weekly basis. Sure, Liriano could turn things around, and any of these starters could string together a pair of gems in Week 13. Do I want to gamble my fantasy chances on that happening? Not by a long shot, to beat the gambling theme into the ground. If you use one or more of these guys with great success, congratulations. I am more toward avoiding risk wherever possible, and each of these SPs is far too volatile for my taste.

Please note that the Fantasy Alarm Forums are now open for your use, to ask questions or provide your own commentary and wisdom. I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.