Thanks to the upcoming Memorial Day holiday, Week 9 arrives with a larger than usual slate of two start pitchers to choose among. There are, of course, plenty of options at the top of the list, and you will see that the bottom tier is packed with starting pitchers as well. It is the middle tier that I tend to focus on with my analysis, and you will also find plenty of potential options here this week. We did lose two potential dual start possibilities in Chris Sale and Rubby De La Rosa. De La Rosa is the most troubling loss, as he went on the DL with right elbow inflammation, and is likely out for a month. Sale simply gets a start on Sunday, and thus loses his Week 9 two start status.
Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.
Without further ado, here are this week’s two-start pitchers:
| Start 'em If You Own 'em |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Jake Arrieta CHC | vs. LAD Scott Kazmir | vs. ARI Patrick Corbin |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Jose Fernandez MIA | vs. PIT Gerrit Cole | vs. NYM Matt Harvey |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Gerrit Cole PIT | @ MIA Jose Fernandez | vs. LAA Jhoulys Chacin |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
@ ATL Mike Foltynewicz | @ STL Michael Wacha | |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Corey Kluber CLE | vs. TEX Colby Lewis | vs. KC Dillon Gee |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Justin Verlander DET | @ LAA Jhoulys Chacin | vs. CHW Mat Latos |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Aaron Nola PHI | vs. WAS Joe Ross | vs. MIL Wily Peralta |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Jason Hammel CHC | vs. LAD Alex Wood | vs. ARI Braden Shipley |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Drew Smyly TB | @ KC Dillon Gee | @ MIN Tyler Duffey |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Ian Kennedy KC | vs. TB Matt Andriese | @ CLE Josh Tomlin |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Steven Wright BOS | @ BAL Tyler Wilson | vs. TOR R.A. Dickey |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Tanner Roark WAS | @ PHI Jeremy Hellickson | @ CIN Dan Straily |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Certainly some of these pitchers may not seem properly placed in the top tier, but I would use any of them in both their scheduled appearances this week. It is especially rewarding to see Justin Verlander in the top tier once again, pitching like an ace, which the Tigers will need with Jordan Zimmermann on the shelf with a groin issue. Smyly, Kennedy, Wright and Roark have all had a bad start recently, but have overall been pitching effective (Smyly less so in May than in April). If you want to pitch them according to match up, feel free but the potential for two positive starts in a week is too tempting for me to pass them by.
| Maybe Yes, Maybe No |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
@ KC Ian Kennedy | @ MIN Ervin Santana | |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Junior Guerra MIL | vs. STL Carlos Martinez | @ PHI Jeremy Hellickson |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Dan Straily CIN | @ COL Jon Gray | vs. WAS Tanner Roark |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Matt Wisler ATL | vs. SF Jake Peavy | @ LAD Scott Kazmir |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Scott Kazmir LAD | @ CHC Jake Arrieta | vs. ATL Matt Wisler |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Ivan Nova NYY | @ TOR Marco Estrada | @ BAL Tyler Wilson |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
vs. WAS Tanner Roark | vs. MIL Junior Guerra | |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
CC Sabathia NYY | @ TOR J.A. Happ | @ BAL Kevin Gausman |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Lance McCullers HOU | @ ARI Patrick Corbin | vs. OAK Kendall Graveman |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
@ SEA Hisashi Iwakuma | vs. COL Jon Gray | |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Jose Quintana CHW | @ NYM Matt Harvey | @ DET Anibal Sanchez |
| Mon 5/30 1:10 PM ET | Sun 6/5 1:10 PM ET |
Tyler Duffey MIN | @ OAK Zach Neal | vs. TB Drew Smyly |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Marco Estrada TOR | vs. NYY Ivan Nova | @ BOS Eduardo Rodriguez |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Kevin Gausman BAL | vs. BOS Eduardo Rodriguez | vs. NYY CC Sabathia |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Nathan Karns SEA | vs. SD Andrew Cashner | @ TEX Martin Perez |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Josh Tomlin CLE | vs. TEX Derek Holland | vs. KC Ian Kennedy |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Collin McHugh HOU | @ ARI Edwin Escobar | vs. OAK Rich Hill |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Jon Gray COL | vs. CIN Dan Straily | @ SD James Shields |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Derek Holland TEX | @ CLE Josh Tomlin | vs. SEA Hisashi Iwakuma |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
@ SEA Nathan Karns | vs. COL Chad Bettis | |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Jeff Locke PIT | @ MIA Justin Nicolino | vs. LAA Nick Tropeano |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
This week, the middle tier is going to be subdivided into three sub-tiers, as it frequently is. The top sub-tier opens with Andriese and closes with McCullers. I keep waiting for Andriese to suffer a correction, as his BABIP and HR/9 ratio are unsustainable. I do like him to continue to do well, though, and while he is on the road for both his starts this week, both are decent match ups for the 26 year-old righty. I am a believer in riding a hot hand, and that is what the Rays have in Andriese right not. Guerra is another pitcher who is on a nice streak. He is no spring chicken, being a 31 year-old rookie, but he has been a lucky charm for the struggling Brewers, as they have won his last three starts. He is posting a stellar 1.50 ERA with 21 Ks over his last three starts, totaling 18 innings. I do not like his match ups in Week 9 nearly as much as I do those for Andriese, though.
Straily has been a surprise bright spot for the Reds, but a .234 BABIP and 78.2 percent strand rate indicate that regression is due. Heading to Colorado to open his week, then taking on the Nationals at home could pose issues for his fantasy value, but the strikeouts will be there for the taking (52 in 54.1 innings). Wisler, as we all realize, is pitching for a terrible team this season, as the Atlanta rebuild goes forward. He has tossed five consecutive QS, and racked up 27 Ks against just eight walks over his last 36 innings pitched. He just keeps on winning, and while the offense in Atlanta is putrid most nights, the pitching should be of interest to fantasy owners.
Kazmir's ERA is trending in the right direction after an awful start to his season, but it still sits at an ugly 4.84. He is striking out hitters, though, and has looked better lately. Going up against Cub ace Jake Arrieta is not exactly a prescription for continued success, but his second start against the sad-sack Atlanta offense at home is intriguing. Nova's inning limit has gradually been increasing, and he threw 6.2 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays in his most recent start. He also fanned eight, but given his track record, you should not count on those results on a consistent basis. His two starts are on the road this week, against the Jays in their home park this time, and then off to Baltimore, where he faces off opposite Tyler Wilson, who sits in the bottom tier several inches below. It is good to see him pitch deeper in games, and his excellent control should keep his non-counting stats in order. Hellickson has joined a remarkably productive Philadelphia rotation, and is providing excellent strikeout numbers, posting a 57:14 K/BB rate over 56.2 innings. His ERA has been trending the right direction since early May, and none of his peripherals indicate that a regression is imminent. He has pitched better on the road than at home, so two home starts are not necessarily a good thing, especially since he is facing two SPs that I have ranked above him this week. Use him for the Ks, and perhaps the Phillies will continue to outperform expectations.
Sabathia has pitched well since coming off the DL with his groin injury, and has in fact tossed four consecutive QS. I should probably rank him higher in this tier, but I keep expecting him to return to his form from the last few seasons. I have to admit, however, he has a hot hand right now, and has been better away from Yankee stadium this season. Feel free to employ him this week when he heads to Toronto and Baltimore. McCullers is our final SP in this sub-tier, and many were expectantly awaiting his return to the Astro rotation. While his stats are trending in the correct direction, and he is an excellent source of Ks, he is also struggling with his control which has limited his utility in his starts. I would use him in his second start against Oakland much more confidently than I would when he heads to Arizona for his first scheduled appearance in Week 9.
The middle sub-tier starts with Shields and wraps up with McHugh. Shields may not be the pitcher he once was, but the 34-year-old veteran righty has been striking out better than a batter per inning over his last four starts. His control needs to improve to help his WHIP drop (currently 1.30), but I do like his pair of starts this period, as he heads to Seattle and avoids Coors Field by hosting the Rockies in San Diego. Quintana is a tough pitcher to own in fantasy, as he pitches well but does not get the run support to collect the fruits of his labors. He has a 5-4 record, with a superb 2.22 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his 10 starts covering 65 innings. He also boasts a 60:12 K/BB ratio, and his peripherals indicate that it is not an illusion. He just does not find much offensive support from this hitters, and in a league that employs wins, he is tough to own. Duffey, on the other side of the coin, allows five earned runs but still picks up a win. He has not been as sharp as when he arrived on the scene as part of the Twin rotation, with his ERA heading north, and his early strikeout numbers getting more and more inconsistent. I still like him against the A's on the road, and also facing the Rays at home this week.
Estrada has been inconsistent, allowing just one earned run in three of his last six starts, but giving up 10 earned runs in the other three contests. He sports a useful 2.76 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, but his control is awful with 23 walks in 58.2 innings. A .393 FIP and .225 BABIP tell a tale of regression and adjust to come in the future. Gausman is giving up too many homers to be fully effective, allowing three to Houston in his last start. He puts up excellent strikeout numbers, though, with a 37:9 K/BB ratio over his seven starts this season. His home/road splits favor his two starts this week at Camden Yards, however, so if you want Ks from a mid-rotation starting pitcher, look no further. Karns has not been going deep in games, having been pulled after five innings in his last two games. He has been limiting the homers, though, and is striking out a batter per inning. The control is an issue, as he has also issued 20 walks in his 51 innings. He is a useful arm if you do not need a ton of innings from your starter, and his team is in first place as I write this. His first start of the week against the visiting Padres projects to be his better opportunity to provide fantasy goodness.
Tomlin is a pitcher I do not fully trust, as he has burned his owners before, but it is hard to deny what he has done since he rejoined the Indian rotation in 2015. He is exhibiting great control with just 14 walks issued over his last 116.2 innings, and a decent 93 Ks over that period. His peripherals do indicate some adjustment in a negative fashion is due, but right now he is dealing. He has not been bad at home, where his two starts take place in Week 9, but he has given up six of the nine homers he has allowed at Progressive Field. McHugh has been unable to develop any consistency, especially in the amount of earned runs he allows on a given night. He does flash excellent control, and misses a good number of bats (2.22 BB/9, 8.20 K/9), so he has value. The inflated 5.13 ERA and 1.59 WHIP are trending in the proper direction over his last six starts, so if you want to get him on the upswing, snatch him up now.
The final sub-tier only contains four pitchers. Gray has been tossing a number of quality starts, but does occasionally get belted around, as in his May 19th start against the Cards, when he gave up 9 earned runs in just 3.1 innings. Plus, pitching his home games at Coors is catching up to him, based on his road/home splits. The strikeouts are superb, but the ERA and WHIP will hurt you in the long run. Holland is coming off a week's rest since his last start when he faces the Indians on Tuesday, presumably to keep him as healthy as possible after pitching just 96 innings in the past couple of seasons. He is working off two consecutive QS, and his inflated ERA and WHIP are coming down with the better performances.
I realize the Mariners are surprising the baseball world this season, but Iwakuma is beatable so if Holland can pitch deep, he will have an opportunity to provide an end of the week victory for his owners. Cashner did not look bad against the Giants in his first start since coming off the DL, despite taking the loss and giving up three earned runs over six innings. His strikeout rate should improve as he continues to recover from his hamstring issue, and he gets to ply his trade in two pitcher favorable parks this coming week. Locke winds up the middle tier, and is a decent if unexciting option to plug in. Like Cashner, he gets to pitch in a couple of parks that should be beneficial to him. He will not be a good source of Ks, and he needs to have his control to be effective, so do not get your hopes too high just because he has two starts this scoring period.
| Not On My Roster |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Matt Harvey NYM | vs. CHW Jose Quintana | @ MIA Jose Fernandez |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Dillon Gee KC | vs. TB Drew Smyly | @ CLE Corey Kluber |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Kendall Graveman OAK | vs. MIN Ervin Santana | @ HOU Lance McCullers |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Jhoulys Chacin LAA | vs. DET Justin Verlander | @ PIT Gerrit Cole |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Wily Peralta MIL | vs. STL Mike Leake | @ PHI Aaron Nola |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Jake Peavy SF | @ ATL Matt Wisler | @ STL Carlos Martinez |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Tyler Wilson BAL | vs. BOS Steven Wright | vs. NYY Ivan Nova |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
@ BAL Kevin Gausman | vs. TOR Marco Estrada | |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Anibal Sanchez DET | @ LAA Hector Santiago | vs. CHW Jose Quintana |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Alex Wood LAD | @ CHC Jason Hammel | vs. ATL Mike Foltynewicz |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Mike Foltynewicz ATL | vs. SF Jeff Samardzija | @ LAD Alex Wood |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Patrick Corbin ARI | vs. HOU Lance McCullers | @ CHC Jake Arrieta |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Justin Nicolino MIA | vs. PIT Jeff Locke | vs. NYM Bartolo Colon |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Chad Bettis COL | vs. CIN Daniel Wright | @ SD Andrew Cashner |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Carlos Martinez STL | @ MIL Junior Guerra | vs. SF Jake Peavy |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA | vs. SD James Shields | @ TEX Derek Holland |
| Tue 5/31 7:00 PM ET | Sun 6/5 7:00 PM ET |
Ervin Santana MIN | @ OAK Kendall Graveman | vs. TB Matt Andriese |
| Mon 5/30 7:00 PM ET | Sat 6/4 7:00 PM ET |
Daniel Wright CIN | @ COL Chad Bettis | vs. WAS Stephen Strasburg |
| Mon 5/30 4:10 PM ET | Sat 6/4 4:10 PM ET |
I have taken a much more aggressive approach in putting pitchers in the bottom tier this week, and that is partly because of the extra starts engendered by the full slate on Memorial Day, and partly because I am getting tired of being burned by mediocre pitching. As with the last few entries in the top tier, feel free to pitch these guys based on their match up, but do not be surprised if your stat line suffers because of that decision.
I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.