Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: Week 4

For those who play in Head-to-Head Leagues, having a handle on which starting pitchers are scheduled to pitch in two game in an upcoming week is invaluable. Of course, if you are an owner in a roto league, and your starting pitching is not looking as good as it did when you drafted your team, or if injuries, demotions to the minors or general poor performance are hurting your placement in the standings, you may want to consider the streaming technique to pep up the rotation. Or you just like to shuffle the deck. Whatever your impetus, if you want to get an idea of who could benefit your squad in the next scoring period, you have arrived at the correct and proper place. On a weekly basis, this series of article will set forth those starting pitchers that as of Saturday are on deck to take the hill twice.

The format is to put the group of two-start pitchers into three tiers. The first tier is entitled “Start ‘em If You Own ‘em” and consists of those pitchers that I suggest you wind up and let go, no matter where they are pitching or what opponent they face. Most, if not all, of these SPs will be owned in your league, but if you own one or two, smile and walk happy.

The second tier is called “Maybe Yes, Maybe No,” and is generally the largest tier. I tend to break it down into sub-tiers for convenience in both my ability to provide analysis of the individuals that make up the tier, and to assist my readers in deciding how much risk they are willing to tolerate on a weekly basis. Depending on how many two-start options there are in a given week, the sub-tiers number either two, or at most, three.

The final tier I call “Not On My Roster” which I believe is self-explanatory. If you are absolutely desperate for a two-start option, due to inning minimums in your league settings, or are just a glutton for punishment, then you can consider rostering one or more of these guys. I cannot in good faith recommend that you do so, but then again, it is your team and you are free to manage it as you see fit (a philosophy I would encourage more leagues to adopt instead of micromanaging every teams moves during the season ).

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:

Table 1

These nine starting pitchers are those that I suggest you simply insert into your starting lineups and leave them there for the balance of the week. The only concerns I might have are Syndergaard and Bumgarner going up against one another in Citi in their second starts of the week, but then again, why not trust an ace going up against another ace? Also, Cole's first start at Coors Field has the potential for damage to his ERA and WHIP but it is difficult to avoid using the Pirate's star. Any of these pitchers can toss a bad game, but overall, if you have them on your team, you know you have to use them whenever they take to the mound.

Table 2

I see the middle tier as consisting of three sub-tiers once again. The first sub-tier begins with Zimmermann and runs down to Graveman. Zimmermann was an important addition to the Detroit staff, and has pitched well to open the season. There are those who had soured on him after a lackluster 2015 season for the Nationals. He has now pitched three consecutive games without allowing a run, let alone an earned run. If he keeps this up, he will be making Tiger fans very happy this season. Velasquez, as has been pointed out all through the draft season, pitches for the Phillies and victories are expected to be hard to come by for that rotation. His early excellence was certainly not sustainable, but he does have the skills to dominate, especially with regard to generating high strikeout numbers.

Richards has pitched well enough to have a better record than 0-3, but unearned runs due to defensive miscues have cost him. He is generating Ks and has a 3.00 ERA, and the wins will follow in due course. Garcia is another SP you want in your lineup for the strikeout totals he generates. He has not pitched poorly, but his control has been spotty this season so far. He pitches for a great team, which is fortunate since he has a couple of dangerous matchups this week, heading to Arizona and facing the Nationals in St. Louis in his second start. The matchups are no reason not to employ his services, though. Walker has only allowed two walks this season in his three starts. This is notable because of his prior problems hitting the strike zone consistently with his offerings. His strikeout numbers are lagging behind his career stats, but he is also generating a huge amount of groundballs this season, posting a 2.75 GB/FB ratio, which is sure to regress, hopefully with a corresponding increase in Ks. Kennedy's long-term, expensive contract shocked many in and out of Kansas City, but the results have been difficult to dispute early this season. He is sporting a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 20 innings, with a 21:5 K/BB ratio in his three starts. He is looking reborn in 2016, and he could be a valuable trade chip if his success continues.

Graveman is the final entry in the top sub-tier, came to the A's as part of the Josh Donaldson trade, and has been providing a nice return for Oakland early this season. He picked up his first victory in his last start against the Yankees, and has a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP on the season with a fine 15:6 K/BB ratio as well. Plus, he is available in a ton of leagues and would make a fine addition to your roster especially if he can keep pitching effectively.

The middle sub-tier opens up with Graveman's teammate, Hill and ends just six pitchers later with Pomeranz. Hill did not look like a quality SP in the spring, but has turned on the gas during the regular season. He has struck out 29 in his 19 innings pitched, while allowing seven earned runs. His WHIP is inflated due to the nine walks he has allowed. His FIP (.288) and BABIP (.436) both indicate that he has suffered a some bad luck and he should pitch even better when those numbers stabilize. Iglesias pitches for Cincinnati, a rebuilding team but one that has played better than expected to open the season. While Iglesias is pitching effectively, he is going to be hampered by the Reds' bullpen, and victories will be hard to come by for the 26 year-old righty. His peripherals, however, should continue to be strong as will his strikeout numbers.

Stripling may last longer in the Dodger rotation with the news that Hyun-Jin Ryu suffered another setback in his rehabilitation process. He started the season strong, but struggled in his last outing in Atlanta, not making it through four innings. The young right-hander will have his ups and downs as the season goes on, but he does get a couple of home starts this scoring period. Ross is still questionable for his scheduled start on Tuesday, having been forced from his last start with a blister on his middle finger. Assuming he can pitch on Tuesday, he gets to take on the Phillies, which is a better match up than his second start at St. Louis. He is not much of a strikeout artist, but does keep the ball on the ground and in the park. He is a useful middle of the rotation fantasy SP. Nelson is the best starter the Brewers have on their roster, and that says a lot about the state of baseball in Milwaukee. He has mediocre control, and does not seem likely to replicate his strikeout totals from the minors. He does keep the ball on the ground, though, and has a decent 93-94 MPH fastball in his repertoire, making him a decent option in the right matchup, as in his second start at home against Miami.

It is always difficult to trust a Colorado starting pitcher, and thus Bettis is here towards the bottom of the middle sub-tier. The biggest concern is his propensity to yield the longball, as he has given up four homers already this season over just 24 1/3 innings. He has been able to overcome that issue by generating grounders in the past, but this season his GB/FB ratio sits at just 1.08. HIs matchups are not the most favorable this week, either, with Pittsburgh coming to visit for his first start and then heading to Arizona at the end of the week. His offense can bail him out of trouble, though, and that makes him slightly intriguing.  Pomeranz has been pitching effectively, but the concern with him is the ability to stay healthy. He is striking out a ton of hitters, with 25 in just 17 2/3 innings this season. The nine walks he has issued are a concern, and the 84 percent strand rate is surely due to regress. He does pitch well in Petco, but that will not help him this week with a pair of road contests. Use him if you need a two-start option, but be prepared for less than superb results with him on the road instead of enjoying home cooking.

The final sub-tier is the largest group of potential starters you may be considering just because they have two starts this week. It starts with Jimenez and wraps with Odorizzi. Jimenez and  Eovaldi are two pitchers I want to trust, but they just keep disappointing me. I figured that when Jiminez went to Baltimore, the Orioles saw something that many of us did not, but he has been nothing more than a serviceable spot starter for fantasy purposes. He does a fair job of generating swings and misses and the walks are not a dramatic issue, but a 4-plus ERA and an inflated WHIP make him a risky option most nights. Eovaldi should be a better source of Ks, but despite his hard-throwing ways, that has not been the case…until 2016, that is. He has an excellent 7.33 K/BB ratio over his three starts, but a 6.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP are not the stuff of fantasy goodness. Plus the Yankees have been struggling on offense this season, and thus he is winless in 2016. If and when he puts it all together, he could be an ace, but it seems that once he fixes one aspect of his skill set, another breaks down. 

Chen's signing with Miami was heralded this winter, but his season started slowly. His most recent start against the Nationals looked better, and lowered his season ERA to 4.91, which tells you how his year has gone so far. He is a solid pitcher, and will benefit from his pitcher-oriented home park, though, and with his early troubles, could be a buy-low opportunity, maybe for this week when he pitches in two favorable parks, although the ball has been flying out of Miller Park in Milwaukee early on this season. Finnegan is going to go through some inconsistencies as a 23-year-old pitcher, and his control is not a selling point right now, having walked 12 over his 21 2/3 innings. He generated half of his 18 Ks in his first start, which is worrisome, too. He has high upside, it just may take a while to show up, and probably not on the road this week when he faces the Mets and the seemingly ageless Bartolo Colon and then the Pirates and their ace, Gerrit Cole. Miller has not exactly pitched like a stud SP to open the season, with a bloated 8.59 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. A 10:11 K/BB ratio is not what makes for an effective pitcher, either, and there is talk about him skipping his next scheduled start to work on his mechanics. He is a better pitcher than he has shown so far in 2016, and if he is simply in need of a mechanical tweak to recover his skillset, then missing one start would seem to be a proper approach. He is healthy, so this has to do with something he is not doing right on the mound, although if it continues, then it may get into his head. Expect him to turn things around, and do not sell low.

Tillman struggled to pitch effectively in 2015, and the results in this season are going poorly to start also. He is striking out batters at a decent clip, and not walking a ton of opposing hitters, but he is giving out hits at inopportune times. Pitching on the road against the Rays and at home against the White Sox could turn his season around, but I am not willing to sacrifice my week 4 results on that possibility. Porcello was sharp in most recent start against the Rays, and now has won all three of his starts to open the season. He is also striking out more batters than his past efforts would suggest, and that 11.2 K/9 ratio is due to shrink as the season progresses. Plus, for a groundball inducer, he has yielded a surprising number of round trippers, with opponents having gone deep on him five times so far in 2016. The wins are nice, but temper your expectations, especially with his home ballpark and this new home run allowing propensity. Hendricks has been a consistent strikeout pitcher, having collected five in each of his three starts. He sits with a 1-2 record, however, despite showing good control. He has been generating a boatload of grounders, and has only given up one home run over his 18 innings. He has two home matchups against beatable teams this week, and his home/road splits indicate that Wrigley is a good place to start him. Wisler has a couple of tough starts this coming week, facing Boston at home and then heading on the road to take on the Cubs. He has been consistent this season, posting a 3.10 ERA and a 16:4 K/BB ratio. If not for the match ups, he would be placed higher in the middle tier, but he does have difficult opponents, and thus is a bit of a risky option.

Milone pitches to contact, trying to utilize his ability to generate groundouts, and while he does have a 12:4 K/BB ratio over his 15 1/3 innings pitched, that is just a league average strikeout rate. His 5.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP make him a desperation option at best, even with a two-start week ahead of him. Teheran has been far too inconsistent to be a cornerstone to your pitching rotation, although his last outing did give his owners some hope. His control was back in evidence, although his fastball, never much of blazer, is now sitting under 90 MPH for the season, and is likely a cause of his early struggles. Odorizzi wraps up this final sub-tier, and while you may like his 23 Ks over 22 2/3 innings, his ERA is flirting with 4 (it sits at 3.97 over four starts). If you simply need the strikeouts, he is useful, but those peripheral numbers will not help you win your league.

Table 3

Last week's article omitted any discussion about the final tier, and I apologize for that. Truth be told, there is generally not much to say about the residents of the bottom tier except avoid using them in your lineups. In fact, only Fister here holds any interest for me, and that has to do with his team, not his skillset these days. Three home runs in three starts and a 9:4 K/BB, plus a 5.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP all scream to avoid him. And that is the best this tier has to offer. So as the label says, none of these pitchers will be on my roster this week.

I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.