Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: Week 3

For those who play in Head-to-Head Leagues, having a handle on which starting pitchers are scheduled to pitch in two game in an upcoming week is invaluable. Of course, if you are an owner in a roto league, and your starting pitching is not looking as good as it did when you drafted your team, or if injuries, demotions to the minors or general poor performance are hurting your placement in the standings, you may want to consider the streaming technique to pep up the rotation. Or you just like to shuffle the deck. Whatever your impetus, if you want to get an idea of who could benefit your squad in the next scoring period, you have arrived at the correct and proper place. On a weekly basis, this series of article will set forth those starting pitchers that as of Saturday are on deck to take the hill twice.

The format is to put the group of two-start pitchers into three tiers. The first tier is entitled “Start ‘em If You Own ‘em” and consists of those pitchers that I suggest you wind up and let go, no matter where they are pitching or what opponent they face. Most, if not all, of these SPs will be owned in your league, but if you own one or two, smile and walk happy.

The second tier is called “Maybe Yes, Maybe No,” and is generally the largest tier. I tend to break it down into sub-tiers for convenience in both my ability to provide analysis of the individuals that make up the tier, and to assist my readers in deciding how much risk they are willing to tolerate on a weekly basis. Depending on how many two-start options there are in a given week, the sub-tiers number either two, or at most, three.

The final tier I call “Not On My Roster” which I believe is self-explanatory. If you are absolutely desperate for a two-start option, due to inning minimums in your league settings, or are just a glutton for punishment, then you can consider rostering one or more of these guys. I cannot in good faith recommend that you do so, but then again, it is your team and you are free to manage it as you see fit (a philosophy I would encourage more leagues to adopt instead of micromanaging every teams moves during the season ).

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:

As noted above in the introduction, I would suggest that you insert any of these pitchers in your starting lineups, and forget about them. All six of these guys give you a great chance to pick up a win or quality start, depending on how your league values starting pitchers. Of course, if you are not as big a believer as I am with regard to Stroman and Rodon, you may want to sit them for their tougher outings, against Baltimore and Texas, respectively. It is your team, and you should run it as you see fit, but these two young pitchers are decidedly on the rise. I do want to see better control from Rodon, but am hoping that comes with experience, since he is just starting his second season in the majors.

I will break this middle tier down into three sub-tiers, as is my usual practice. The top sub-tier leads off with Ventura and runs through Graveman. Ventura is the ace by default on the Royals, and though I do not trust him to keep his cool when he gets into trouble on the mound. Plus, his walk rate is through the roof, but you are starting him for the Ks. Eickhoff joins another couple of Phillie hurlers that are looking strong early on, joining Aaron Nola and Vincent Velasquez as the  beginnings of a fine young rotation. You have to love Eickhoff's strikeout potential, His strong start to the season, as well as his four game preview at the end of 2015 has pushed his ownership percentage up to levels where he is likely owned in your league, but if he has snuck by on the wire, go grab him now. Hammel has long been a favorite of mine, and it is good to see him get off to a good start.

Of course, he usually fades out as the season progresses, so now it the best time to employ his services. He is not yet striking out hitters at his usual rate, and the walks are a concern, but pitching for the offensively-loaded Cubs should lead to good results, especially if he can start missing some more bats. Iglesias is a source of strikeouts, but pitches for the rebuilding Reds, so the victories will be scarce this season. Not pitching deep into games also diminishes his value, but as I noted, the Ks are his selling point, this season at least.  Lackey just keeps plugging along, nothing exciting but like Hammel, his offense will bail him out so long as he can rack up the Ks and keep his team close. Smyly's main concern is health after missing part of 2015 following shoulder surgery, and this year he pitches for a team that is going to struggle to score runs for their starting pitchers. He has the ability to put up great strikeout numbers and excellent control, so he is useful even if he does not look to be in line for a ton of wins. Santana is the decided ace on the Minnesota staff, and has pitched well to open the season, with 16 Ks in 15 innings, and a nice 1.38 GB/FB ratio. Buy in for the strikeouts, and pray the Twins' bats wake up soon for their No. 1 SP.

Nelson is more of a groundball pitcher than a strikeout inducer, and that has shown to be the case to open the season. He has yielded 12 hits and nine walks in his first three starts, but as demonstrated by his 2.79 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, he has been lucky with his "bend/don't break" approach in 2016. He will need to limit the baserunners to keep up his winning ways, and the young hurler will get every opportunity to do so on the rebuilding Brewer team. Roark joins a strong staff in Washington, although his propensity early this season to issue free passes needs to change if he is going to be a valuable member of the rotation, as he is not a good source of Ks by any means. Happ pitches on a team with a powerful offense, and that helps overcome many deficiencies for a starting pitcher. He has never been a truly dominant mound presence, and does not have great control, but does generate enough strikeouts to be an effective streaming option, especially in a two-start week. Ray is a pitcher I have liked since he came up with the Tigers in 2014 (admittedly an awful 28.2 inning showing), but has really started to get things going in Arizona over the past season and is carrying that forward into 2016. He suffers from a lack of control, and that is why he sits toward the bottom of this sub-tier, but he also generates Ks, and that is a valuable skill, especially in his home park.

Griffin is most likely going to head back to the bullpen once Yu Darvish returns in May, and will probably get a handful of spot starts, so this is your best chance to get him for a pair of starts this season. As with other pitchers in this top sub-tier, he benefits from a strong offense backing him. He is a serviceable starter, but has been struggling with his control and not missing many bats. As I said, serviceable, not exciting. Feldman also pitches for a team that can put up runs for its pitchers. He consistently puts up a better ERA than his FIP would suggest possible, and since he has done it over several seasons, it looks as though he is just a lucky pitcher. Good to have lady luck on your side when you take to the mound. Graveman winds up this sub-tier, and while he has good control, he is not a swing and miss starting pitcher, which limits his value in most leagues. Heading on the road this week to face the Yankees and Blue Jays pushes him to the bottom of this sub-tier.

The middle sub-tier is much shorter, starting with Greene and ending just three pitchers later with Leake. Greene has been looking sharp to open the season, but we have seen this before with him, notably last season. He has been striking out opposing batters at a rate of one per inning, but also allowing too many walks. It is early, to be sure, but a 7:3 K/BB ratio does not make for a top-notch SP option. Of course, a 2.0 GB/FB ratio can overcome certain limitations for a starter, and he did show better K/BB ratios when he came up with the Yankees, so the skills are there. Perhaps it is just his continued recovery from last season's blood clot surgery.

Santiago provides good strikeout numbers, but he also gives up a ton of fly balls. The strange thing is that he manages to keep the ball in the park for the most part. He seemed poised for a breakout in 2015, at least until his control abandoned in the second part of season. His fly ball tendencies may hurt him in his first start against the White Sox, but I do like him at home against the Mariners, or at least, like him better in that matchup. Jimenez has been benefitting from the Orioles hot start to the season, although he looked shaky in his last start against Boston, yielding 4 runs on six hits and four walks. He did dominate the Twins in his first start to the season, but has this annoying tendency to run hot and cold. Facing Toronto and then Kansas City is not exactly the recipe for success, although his team's offense can help overcome shaky starts. Go ahead and use him if you feel lucky. Leake is the last in the middle sub-tier, and while he has been a useful starting pitcher for his career, you are not rostering him for great strikeout numbers. He tends to pitch to contact, and that can get him in trouble, but his control keeps him in games, too. I do like him at home against the Cubs and especially on the road in San Diego, but I also want strikeouts from my SPs, so except for a week when he gets to start twice, I am going to avoid his services.

The final sub-tier opens with Hughes and wraps with Wood. Hughes had a nice season when he first joined the Twins, primarily by limiting the long ball. He continues to show excellent control, and is also a good source of Ks. As I noted, however, those home runs are killers and he has already handed out two in his first 12.1 innings this season. For that reason, he sits low in the middle tier of two-start pitchers. Latos bounced around between the two LA teams and Miami in 2015, and his career looked to be in shambles. This season, after signing with Pale Hose, he seems like a rejuvenated SP, having won his first two games and only allowing one earned run over 12 innings. Can this excellence continue? You have to question that but if he can limit the fly balls in his new home, he could be a sneaky add to your roster.

Conley won a starting role based on a strong showing in the spring, and he should provide his owners with good strikeout numbers. He is a young arm, however, and expectations should be tempered, as he adjusts to being a major league pitcher. Pineda has allowed eight earned runs in his first two starts, resulting in a bloated 6.55 ERA on the season. Right now it is tough to trust the right hander, seeing as he has given up three homer already. Despite a decent 3.67 K/BB ratio, he is not fooling enough hitters to be effective and I would urge you to avoid using him even in a two start week. Wood is the final entry that carries any value this scoring period, and his lack of Ks is worrisome, especially since he was at one time essentially a strikeout per inning SP. He has a 6:5 K/BB ratio on the season, and while it is extremely early, that continues an inability to miss bats that reared its ugly mug last season when he first was sent to the Dodgers in July of 2015. He still has good control, and generates twice the groundballs to fly balls, so there is hope that he will turn things around. Right now, though, he is a back of the rotation guy for the Dodgers and should not be counted on for more than that on your fantasy team. Facing his former team in his first start does look promising, but I would avoid him in the second outing at Coors Field.

I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy ende