Two-Start Pitchers: Week 1

For those who play in Head-to-Head Leagues, having a handle on which starting pitchers are scheduled to pitch in two games in an upcoming week is invaluable. Of course, if you are an owner in a roto league, and your starting pitching is not looking as good as it did when you drafted your team, or if injuries, demotions to the minors or general poor performance are hurting your placement in the standings, you may want to consider the streaming technique to pep up the rotation. Or you just like to shuffle the deck. Whatever your impetus, if you want to get an idea of who could benefit your squad in the next scoring period, you have arrived at the correct and proper place. On a weekly basis, this series of articles will set forth those starting pitchers that as of Saturday are on deck to take the hill twice.

The format is to put the group of two-start pitchers into three tiers. The first tier is entitled “Start ‘em If You Own ‘em” and consists of those pitchers that I suggest you wind up and let go, no matter where they are pitching or what opponent they face. Most, if not all, of these SPs will be owned in your league, but if you own one or two, smile and walk happy.

The second tier is called “Maybe Yes, Maybe No,” and is generally the largest tier. I tend to break it down into sub-tiers for convenience in both my ability to provide analysis of the individuals that make up the tier, and to assist my readers in deciding how much risk they are willing to tolerate on a weekly basis. Depending on how many two-start options there are in a given week, the sub-tiers number either two or, at most, three.

The final tier I call “Not On My Roster” which I believe is self-explanatory. If you are absolutely desperate for a two-start option, due to inning minimums in your league settings, or are just a glutton for punishment, then you can consider rostering one or more of these guys. I cannot in good faith recommend that you do so, but then again, it is your team and you are free to manage it as you see fit (a philosophy I would encourage more leagues to adopt instead of micromanaging every teams moves during the season *steps down off soapbox*).

Please realize that I am working off the most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher I have listed as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, I apologize but I only provide analysis, I do not set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two-start pitchers:

As the title to this upper tier suggests, I would recommend that each of these starting pitchers be used whenever they take to the mound. Do not worry about the venue or the opponent, these are the cream of the crop in Week 2, and you would do well to let them go without concern. Can a top-notch SP stumble and hurt your stat line? Sure, but the odds are much more in your favor that you will collect strikeouts, build up your peripherals and maybe even walk away with a win or quality start, or if you are truly fortunate, two victories for the scoring period. Do not overthink this, as you do not want to rue the decision to play it "smart" and lose out on some early season fantasy goodness.

Because the season is just getting under way, the middle tier is not as populated as it will be once we get past the first couple of weeks with the days off and cold weather issues. Even so, I am dividing the middle tier into three sub-tiers, as is the usual format for this series of articles. The first sub-tier opens with Maeda and runs down through Moore. Maeda comes over from Japan, and at least for the first swing through the league, he should be able to fool hitters. Do not expect a ton of Ks, however, as he is much more of a groundball pitcher, but should provide good results early this season. This is a great time to employ his skills in building up your pitching stats. 

Gonzalez had a down season, at least for the first half of 2015, posting a 1.42 WHIP. He is a decent source of Ks, but needs to rely on his ground ball inducing tendencies to get back to his normal mid-tier status as a starting pitcher. He has a pair of good matchups this week, facing both Philadelphia and Atlanta. Nicasio won the starting role with a great spring. He has always flashed skills, but pitched in a poor park for pitchers, opening his career in Colorado. I like his chances to develop into a usable starter, as Pittsburgh has had success reclaiming SPs of late.

Sanchez won a slot in the Toronto rotation based on a strong spring, and he offers good strikeout potential, although he also keeps the ball on the ground to a large extent. Fine combination of skills for a No. 3 starter, and while he has a couple of tough division matchups this scoring period, his team should provide adequate offense to give him a good shot at a win or two. Shields is certainly not an exciting option anymore, but the veteran still has the skillset to dominate although his supporting cast has not exactly lit the baseball world on fire so far this season. He is still a source of strikeouts and is dependable, having started 30 or more games per season over the last nine years.

Iwakuma is another pitcher that does not make drafters drool with anticipation in the middle rounds, but can provide good production even if is somewhat pedestrian. The shoulder issue that kept the Dodgers from signing him this winter seems to be a non-issue, and while his strikeout ratio figures to drop back from the K/9 ratio he racked up in his first start, he should still be an overall solid starting pitcher to rely on this season if his health persists.  Nola is the best starting pitcher in Philly, but that also limits his value to an extent. He pitched an excellent opening game against the Reds, but ended up with no decision when the bullpen blew the save. Do not count on many wins in his stat line, as his offense is below average and the bullpen is shaky. You have to like the K potential, though, and the peripheral stats should be strong enough to make him a fine mid-rotation option this season.

Corbin struggled in his first start of the season, but he looked good in the spring, and he does seem to be recovered from his Tommy John surgery. Pitching in Arizona, he will rely on his ground ball tendencies as well as an above-average K rate to be effective. He is on the road for his two starts in Week 2, but in pitcher favorable parks, so he makes for a nice two-start option. Moore is another pitcher coming back from injury, and is coming off a tremendous spring. He was roughed up by the Pirates in his first start of the season, and showed a lack of control and command. Still, it is early, and his next two starts are at home, not that that has been a huge positive for him in the past.

The middle sub-tier starts with Pineda and ends with Chatwood. Pineda looked less than sharp against Houston in his first start, but was bailed out by his offense. He yielded three homers, including a grand slam to George Springer, and given his .278 BA and .355 BABIP last season, he is a shaky option as a full-time SP in mixed-leagues. He does offer excellent strikeout potential and has been known for his control over his career. If he can keep those ratios in effect, he is a decent option to use depending on the matchup. You might want to avoid his first start against Toronto on the road, but facing Seattle at home should be a nice play. Fiers is a great source for Ks, but he also tends to allow fly balls. Pitching in Houston, that may pose an issue as far as his peripherals this season, so watch his matchups before employing his services. He has a couple of tough outings in Week 2, facing the World Champ Royals and Tigers, and both games are at home (remember his fly ball tendencies discussed above?).

Chen was brought in to join the Miami rotation to great acclaim, which is somewhat puzzling despite his overall consistency with Baltimore. He will benefit from the spacious environs of his new home park in Miami, given his tendency to yield the long ball and fly balls in general. He does have a pair of nice games this week, heading to Citi Field and hosting the Braves at home. Greene was brought in last season to shore up the back end of the Detroit rotation, but that took a bad turn, resulting in him requiring surgery. He did win the final rotation spot after a nice spring, and the Tigers are hoping he can resume his strikeout/grounder inducing ways now that he is healthy. He is backed by a strong offense, although the two games in Week 2 against Pittsburgh and Houston are not ideal matchups.

Samardzija struggled with the move to the AL last season, but many believe a return to the National League and a better pitcher's park in San Francisco have many believing in a rebound for his 2016 season. He did yield a homer in his first start, and until he shows a return to his high strikeout ways, and an ability to keep the ball in the park, he is a slightly risky option. Plus, his first start is in Colorado, so you might want to hold off on starting him on Tuesday. Cashner throws hard and racks up the Ks, as well as keeping the ball on the ground, which should place him higher in this tier. I was not overly impressed by his spring efforts, but he does get to face the Phillies in his first start in Week 2, and then heads back to the friendly confines of Petco Park. Chatwood wraps up this sub-tier, and is coming off a second TJS. He has never been a superb K option, and his home park limits his value. He also faces two tough teams in San Francisco (at Coors) and on the road against the Cubs and Jon Lester. He is a so-so option in Week 2.

The final sub-tier begins with Sanchez and winds up with Young. Sanchez, the one that pitches for Detroit, is coming off a huge disappointing 2015 season. He was likely pitching through an injury, however, and looks to be healthy this season, at least at the start. It is unlikely he will give up as many home runs as he did in 2015 (29!), but you may want to wait and see if he is fully engaged before relying on him for two starts in a week, especially against two strong teams in Pittsburgh and Houston. Medlen will be the fifth starter in the Royal rotation, and does not provide a high ceiling. The idea with the Royals, however, is to rely on their starters to keep them in the game and then work out how to win during the end game. Medlen was much better on the road in 2015, albeit in a small sample size, but does get two road starts in Week 2, against Houston and then Oakland. No overwhelming positives jump out, but his team helps keep his floor high enough to make him useful in deeper leagues.

Jiminez and Gallardo both opened the season with victories, but they do not make for consistently powerful options for your fantasy rotation. I would trust Gallardo more, but both can give you decent strikeout numbers, although the win totals will not be stellar, based on the Oriole offense. Both are on the road in Boston and Detroit, and that makes them shaky options this week. Niese could be the latest reclamation project in Pittsburgh to step up his game once in the Pirate rotation, although I like Nicasio more. He is not a strikeout producer by any means, and if his command fails him, he could be victimized by homers even in PNC Park. He is a better option in his second start against Milwaukee at home than facing the Tigers on the road earlier in the week, if you were leaning to adding him to your roster. Young is the last denizen of the middle tier, and he is nothing if not uninspiring. He had success last season that will be difficult to repeat in 2016 if he continues to pitch without gathering many Ks, walking batters at rate above league average and letting hitters continually put the ball in the air against him (60% fly ball rate in 2015). A fly ball pitcher in Houston is not a good bet, but going against the A's at Oakland later in the week could provide some success if you want to take a chance on him. Just realize that last year's .221 BABIP is going to suffer serious negative regression.

The final tier consists of pitchers I want no part of in my rotation this week, if I can avoid it. Some of these guys will inevitably pitch well in one of their two scheduled starts, but the risk of implosion is too high for me to take a chance on them. Of all these guys, Finnegan is the most intriguing. He did strike out nine Phillies hitters (with just one walk) in a six inning no-decision for his first start of the year. I worry about his ability to collect wins, however, given the rebuilding state of his team, and I am not too certain his wildness will not pop up despite the great control he showed against Philadelphia. I am not overly impressed with the back end of the Ranger rotation this season, and thus both Lewis and Holland make this bottom tier. Morton looked awful in his Pirate debut, and no one is running out to add Gibson, Jungmann or Norris to their rosters as best I can see. Desperation may induce you to add one or more of these SPs, but beware the negative repercussions if you do so.

I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.