For years, the mantra in fantasy baseball drafts has been to wait to select your starting pitchers, as pitching is deep, pitchers suffer more injuries, and pitching is too inconsistent to waste high draft picks on in non-auction leagues. I subscribed to that viewpoint, I will confess, but my experience is that those premises are no longer valid. Hitters get injured just as often as pitchers, there is plenty of inconsistency to go around in baseball that pitchers no longer have a lock on up and down seasons, and while I agree that if you are savvy enough to study starting pitchers, you can find gems in the later rounds, there is still plenty to like among the top 20-25 starters in any given season to make them a part of your draft or auction strategy. In fact, my preferred strategy is to see if perhaps a Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, or Max Scherzer (those are my top three, but others could easily be included depending on your league setup) is available in the latter part of the first round or in the second round to provide my lock-down ace early on.

These articles that will be published prior to Opening Day, however, are not about the stud starting pitching options available in your drafts or auctions. What we are looking at are those very good options that for one reason or another are being ignored in early drafts and mock drafts. What sorts of hidden values are dropping below the 12th round in most drafts that you can snag for great value with an eye to dominating your league this season? Note: I am operating on the assumption you are drafting in a 12 team league, so all pitchers profiled here will be below the 144th pick.

I will be profiling one (or at most two) mid to late round options in the starting pitching realm on a bi-weekly basis (that is twice a week, not the alternate definition of every two weeks-why is English so difficult and confusing?). If you have questions about any pitchers and their viability as a “sleeper” pick, hit me up at ia@fantasyalarm.com and I will do my best to provide some insight. Also, I am always available to answer starting pitching (or other fantasy baseball) questions all season long.

Matt Moore – LHP – Tampa Bay Rays

2015 Stats: 3-4, 63.0 IP, 5.43 ERA, 46 K’s, 1.54 WHIP

Current ADP

Mock Draft Army ADP: 348.2 (based on current ADPs generated by Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army results)

National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC): 271.57

FSTA Draft on January 14th, 2016: Drafted 22nd round (282nd overall)

Availability

Moore is going late in drafts, due in part to his Tommy John surgery in April of 2014, and his lackluster return to the Rays rotation in July last season. If you are planning on taking him late in drafts, hope that your fellow owners did not pay attention to what he put up after being recalled from Triple-A in September (more on that below). The savvy owner will recall that Moore was a bright young arm before TJS derailed his career just two games into the 2014 season.

Upside

He looked lost on the mound when he first returned to action last season, with a selection of pitches that were extremely hittable and opposing batters were happy to feast on his mediocre offerings. That all turned around after a minor league stint, as he was back to his dominant self in September when he put up a 2.97 EA and 1.16 WHIP in six starts. He also showed both dominance and command, with a 29:10 K/BB ratio over his September and October appearances. Between Sept. 5 and Oct. 4, he lowered his ERA from a staggeringly bad 8.78 to 5.43 and also dropped his WHIP from 2.06 to 1.54. Now, those final numbers look bad, but considering what he had been putting forth, the improvement is remarkable. All is not rosy for young Mr. Moore, however, as noted below.

Downside

His injury, surgery and early struggles in coming back from rehab are all red flags. Despite his improvement after being sent to Triple-A, there are still concerns about his release point being altered as well as his ability to fool hitters consistently with his changeup. He showed a slight dip in his fastball velocity, which makes his changeup less effective. His homer ratio rose in 2015 to an unacceptable 1.29/9, which for a pitcher that relies on weak fly balls is alarming. The loss of two MPH difference between his heater and change is worrisome, and likely one of the main issues that led to his poor performance in 2015.

Summary

If September represents a recovery from his surgery, then he is well worth a late round draft pick. You need to monitor how he is generating outs in spring training, however, especially with regard to his ability to keep hitters off-balance with his changeup. Pitching in the AL East with the Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays and Red Sox on the slate for numerous contests, even at home, is not a recipe for success if he does not regain his control and command, however, and he should not be drafted earlier than a SP4.