For years, the mantra in fantasy baseball drafts has been to wait to select your starting pitchers, as pitching is deep, pitchers suffer more injuries, and pitching is too inconsistent to waste high draft picks on in non-auction leagues. I subscribed to that viewpoint, I will confess, but my experience is that those premises are no longer valid. Hitters get injured just as often as pitchers, there is plenty of inconsistency to go around in baseball that pitchers no longer have a lock on up and down seasons, and while I agree that if you are savvy enough to study starting pitchers, you can find gems in the later rounds, there is still plenty to like among the top 20-25 starters in any given season to make them a part of your draft or auction strategy. In fact, my preferred strategy is to see if perhaps a Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, or Max Scherzer (those are my top three, but others could easily be included depending on your league setup) is available in the latter part of the first round or in the second round to provide my lock-down ace early on.
These articles that will be published prior to Opening Day, however, are not about the stud starting pitching options available in your drafts or auctions. What we are looking at are those very good options that for one reason or another are being ignored in early drafts and mock drafts. What sorts of hidden values are dropping below the 12th round in most drafts that you can snag for great value with an eye to dominating your league this season? Note: I am operating on the assumption you are drafting in a 12 team league, so all pitchers profiled here will be below the 144th pick.
I will be profiling one (or at most two) mid to late round options in the starting pitching realm on a bi-weekly basis (that is twice a week, not the alternate definition of every two weeks-why is English so difficult and confusing?). If you have questions about any pitchers and their viability as a “sleeper” pick, hit me up at ia@fantasyalarm.com and I will do my best to provide some insight. Also, I am always available to answer starting pitching (or other fantasy baseball) questions all season long.
Collin McHugh– RHP – Houston Astros
2015 Stats: 19-7, 203.2 IP, 3.89 ERA, 171 K’s, 1.28 WHIP
Current ADP
Mock Draft Army ADP: 142.2 (based on current ADPs generated by Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army results)
National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC): 183.8
FSTA Draft on January 14th, 2016: Drafted 13th round (159th overall)
Availability
It is difficult to understand how a pitcher that racked up 19 victories last season is not getting any respect in drafts. Perhaps his 2015 success is considered the outlier but he did pitch well in 2014, albeit not with the same success at collecting wins. As the No. 3 option in the rotation, he is coming at a nice discount early in drafts this year.
Upside
He is a three-pitch starter, relying on his fastball, plus-curve and cutter. He throws his fastball in the 90 MPH range, but generates a lot of ground balls from batters, with a 1.46 GB/FB ratio last season. His 3.65 FIP was better than his ERA last year, and he demonstrates good control as shown by his 2.34 BB/9 in 2015. Being backed up by a strong offense helps him generate positive fantasy stats, as he pitches late into games on a regular basis. Surprisingly, his splits indicate that he handles left-handed hitters much more effectively than righties, holding left-handers to a .233/.292/.356 slash line as opposed to a .284/.336/.420 for right-handers.
Downside
He needs to work on his cutter to get back to being the effective pitcher he was in his breakout year in 2014. His BABIP jumped significantly in 2015, rising from .259 to .310,which while maybe a sign of some unluckiness, is also due at least in part to his inability to get the same movement he previously experienced with the cutter. His strikeout rate dropped considerably from 2014 to 2015 (9.14 down to 7.56).
Summary
The goal this season is to re-learn how to throw his cutter with effectiveness, and work on getting right-handed hitters out at a more significant clip. Continuing to generate groundballs will help him continue his success on the mound. It seems likely that his offense will provide him with substantial opportunities to generate wins, or at least quality starts. Bumping up his K-rate would make him more valuable as a fantasy starter in the middle of your team’s rotation, but so long as he can keep his control, he is a middle round steal in drafts at the moment.