Two Start Pitchers for Week 13: Gray, Cole, & More

Week 13 arrives with some interesting choices for two-start pitching options. As per usual, the bottom tier is populated with a some pitchers that I cannot in good conscience recommend, and that trend holds true somewhat with regard to the bottom sub-tier of the middle group, as well. Choose wisely and hope for the best.

I have written it before and plan to write it many more times: the top tier is comprised of starting pitchers you should insert in your starting rotation and forget about them for the balance of Week 13. No matter who they face or where they are taking the hill, these are the safe bets for the scoring period. The two Cleveland SPs are here for their strikeout potential, since I do not fully trust their offense to properly back up their mound efforts. Both Salazar and Carrasco have been better away from Progressive Field this year, so take advantage of their road starts.

To help you prepare your rotations, I present the Two Start Pitchers as scheduled for the next week in MLB action. One caveat is that these charts assume that your fantasy week begins on Monday. I made that decision because I have no leagues that do not provide for a Monday start, and it seems to be the standard scoring system. Of course, if you have questions about starting pitchers who are going on Sunday and thus will presumably have another start during the week being profiled, do not be hesitant to drop me an e-mail (see my address at the bottom of the article) and I will attempt to get back with you in a timely fashion. Of course, you could also look to my Streaming Pitcher articles for additional SP suggestions.

The pitchers below are tiered, the first being no-brainers (in my opinion), the second tier being those I would consider adding to my roster and the final tier comprised of pitchers I do not trust at all. Of course, opinions differ and you can let us know if you disagree in the comments.

Let us move on to see who can provide those helpful two starts in next week's fantasy contests.

I have written it before and plan to write it many more times: the top tier is comprised of starting pitchers you should insert in your starting rotation and forget about them for the balance of Week 13. No matter who they face or where they are taking the hill, these are the safe bets for the scoring period. The two Cleveland SPs are here for their strikeout potential, since I do not fully trust their offense to properly back up their mound efforts. Both Salazar and Carrasco have been better away from Progressive Field this year, so take advantage of their road starts.

The middle tier is comprised of three sub-tiers, as it usually is. The first sub-tier opens with Leake and winds up with our first De La Rosa. Leake gets a couple of good offenses to match up against at home this coming week. Neither Minnesota or Milwaukee are considered strong teams on the road. So long as his control is intact, Leake is an unexciting but good option for a couple of QS. Bolsinger has not been pitching very deep into games over his past three starts, but that is a recent trend that he will look to reverse. He is offering nearly a strikeout per innings (8.53 K/9 in 58) innings and a sub-3 ERA is a nice bonus (2.95 with a 1.24 WHIP on the season). Graveman has been showing why he was a draft-day darling in his second tour with Oakland. He has pitched seven innings or better in his last four starts, and has held opponents to two or one earned run in each of those four appearances. My major concern is his propensity to give up the long ball at home, where both his starts are this period. Both Colorado and Seattle are lower level offenses on the road, so I like him for two starts this week. Hendricks makes the top sub-tier despite some recent struggles. He gets to face a couple of beatable offenses, although the Mets are better hitters at Citi than on the road. He has good control and average strikeout potential, especially against Miami and the Mets, who are No. 9 and 10 among all MLB teams in Ks. De La Rosa, for a heavy ground ball inducing pitcher, has yielded a ton of home runs this season. The good news is that he has only allowed one homer in his past three games, and that was at Coors Field. Chase Field is not a bad place to pitch in terms of home run potential, and if he can get the Dodgers and Rockies to hit the ball into the turf, then his strikeout potential makes him worth two starts this week.

The second sub-tier begins with Kennedy and runs down through Haren. Kennedy has strung together three consecutive quality starts where he allowed just a single earned run in each start. Of course, he also allowed one home run in each of those appearances. He has been working to steadily drive down his super-inflated ERA and WHIP and he has always been a good source of strikeouts. Neither of the offenses he faces are in the top 50% of MLB teams, so while I might not like the second start at St. Louis all that much, it could be much worse, and the first start against Seattle is a definite start. Wilson is a better road pitcher in pretty even home/road splits. He faces two tough offenses, but has a good chance to give his owner decent strikeouts. His trend toward fly balls as opposed to grounders is concerning, but he has shown flashes of his skills all season, on and off. Buchholz is someone who I was certain would not return to the middle tier. He still has problems pitching at Fenway, but as he frequently does, he has risen from the ashes of early season disastrous outings to become a useful SP. Look for him to rack up some Ks in his second start against the Astros. Duffy was a guy I drafted with expectations that he would shine once he came back from his shoulder injury. Things did not go so well in his first start against Seattle, but I would expect him to pitch deeper as he gets acclimated to pitching in the majors again. He should also start to rack up more Ks as he settles in to the Royal rotation. Nelson gets to face the Phillies, a good match up. Cincy at Great American is not as enticing an option, but he should be a decent starting option assuming he can get the Reds to hit the ball on the ground. Hughes relies on his control to succeed, so do not expect much in terms of Ks if you use him. He faces a couple of mid level  offenses this week but do not be surprised if he yields a couple of round trippers, too. McCullers has been excellent since joining the Houston rotation, but the concern is that the bloom will come off the rose his second time through the league. That will not occur in Week 13, however, as he faces two teams that have yet to see his pitches in Kansas City and Boston. My suggestion is ride out his strong initial rookie season and take the benefits for now. Karns gets to face the Indians at home, a team he beat by holding them to one earned run over 5.1 innings a couple of starts ago. I would normally worry about his second start on the road in Yankee Stadium, but his road numbers are much better than his home splits. He has been striking out a batter per inning in his last three starts, too. Lewis has seven wins on the season, with three victories coming in his last five starts (two no decisions). He has thrown five consecutive QS, and while the strikeout numbers are not spectacular, so long as he exhibits his excellent control, he is a good starting option, especially at home in his second start against the Angels. Pelfrey, like his teammate Hughes, is not a good source for strikeouts. Unlike Hughes, though, he manages to keep the ball in the park for the most part, and generates a ton of ground balls from opposing hitters. He would be ranked higher in this middle tier if he was not pitching on the road for both his starts, as his home splits are fantastic this season (1.80 ERA and 1.16 WHIP as opposed to 4.46 ERA and 1.54 WHIP away from Target Field). Haren winds up the middle sub-tier, and has been a good surprise for the Marlins this season. I think he is going to suffer some regression soon, as his FIP is nearly one run higher than his ERA (4.36 FIP to 3.38 ERA) and his BABIP is an unsustainable .243. Ride him while he is hot, but be prepared for the inevitable correction.

Our final sub-tier starts with the second De La Rosa and finishes with the Rodriguez pitching for Boston. The Colorado De La Rosa may not make his starts, as he is dealing with a cut on his finger that surfaced in his last appearance against the Diamondbacks. Grab him for the Ks he offers, and enjoy the fact that he is pitching away from Coors Field, where he has struggled (like many other pitchers). Hale's innings pitched have gone down in each of his last four starts, culminating in a 4.2 innings stint against the Diamondbacks. He should give some average strikeout numbers with good control, and will generate grounders from the opposition. Both his opponents are top 10 offenses at their home parks, so keep that in mind if you get an urge to use Hale this week. Gonzalez did not look sharp in his first start after returning to active duty from the DL, but it was in Boston and Gonzalez is a better home pitcher. He gets to face Texas at home, which bodes well or at least better for him than facing the Rangers in Arlington. Getting to face the White Sox has made a lot of pitchers look good, so do not be overly concerned about the start in Chicago. The first Rodriguez in this sub-tier was rocked by the A's in his last outing, but had been dealing previous to that debacle. He has only given up more than three earned runs in three of his 12 starts in 2015, and has been superb on the road, where he takes on the Orioles in his first start of the upcoming week. The second start against the Angels does not look as promising. Verlander is not a pitcher I want to trust right now, but I am not yet ready to totally abandon him yet. He is coming off a back issue, so if you want to roll the dice on the former Detroit ace, make sure he is going to start against the Pirates and the Blue Jays. Our second Rodriguez, the one that pitches for Boston, has been looking exceptional. Still, he is a rookie, and while I ranked McCullers higher, another rookie, it is because I expect the beating he took in two of his last three starts to be a more common occurrence going forth, especially if he cannot command his slider or change up, which he reported as a problem following his last start against the Orioles.

The bottom tier is where pitchers I do not feel comfortable using in one start, let alone two, reside. Vogelsong hits the bottom tier based on his road struggles. Dickey is dependable, but the peripherals are not there. He is a much better real baseball player than a fantasy option these days. Just avoid these pitchers when setting your Week 13 lineups, and you will sleep better at night. Or during the day, depending on your circadian rhythms.

Should you have questions regarding fantasy baseball, especially starting pitching, you can reach me at ia@fantasyalarm.com to continue the discussion.