We have reached home stretch territory with this series of articles. Drafts will be wrapping up presumably by next Monday, when most clubs open the season, and I will therefore be turning my attention to in-season starting pitching management with weekly articles about two-start SPs and those pitchers you may want to target for streaming (or roster replacement) purposes. Before that fun stuff rolls around, however, what say we take a look at a few more late inning gems that can help you overpower your fellow competitors on draft day.
To spell out some guidelines, this series of articles is going to profile starting pitchers that have an ADP of 200 or better (meaning taken later than pick 200). In a 10 team league, those pitchers would be going in round 21 or later (it would be mid-way through round 16 in a 12 team league). By that point in your draft, you have more than likely filled out your starting offense and picked up an ace and closer, perhaps a couple more pitchers. Your mileage may vary depending on your actual league settings, but you get the general idea.
Please note that the projections for each of the pitchers below are my own, that I create after comparing various sources and adjusting for expected playing time, specifically, innings pitched for starting pitchers. As for the ADP numbers, I am looking at the ADP results our very own Howard Bender is compiling with his Mock Draft Army mocks.
Dan Haren MIA ADP: 345.9
Haren did not seem to be a happy camper when he was first traded to Miami this past winter, requesting a trade almost immediately or threatening to retire. That controversy has died down, and he has pitched pretty well this spring, despite putting up a 4.66 ERA in five games. His 1.03 WHIP and the 14:3 K/BB ratio could translate very well for a SP6 or so in fantasy circles. You need to hope that his back does not flare up, as it has the past three seasons. When he has back issues, his stat line becomes extremely ugly. In fact, he has not posted a sub-4.00 ERA in the past three seasons, so that part of his peripherals is worrisome. So long as his control does not fade on him, though, and he stays healthy for the better part of the season, he could be a useful back of the rotation guy. Just make sure not to start him in hitter-friendly parks, as he does yield more than a reasonable share of homers these days.
2015 Projections: 11 Wins/140 K/4.31 ERA/1.25 WHIP over 180 innings
Jarred Cosart MIA ADP: 353.1
Cosart is being investigated by the MLB for possible gambling ties, but these type of investigations can take weeks or months to conclude. Of more immediate concern is the blister on his throwing hand, although he is scheduled to make his final Grapefruit league start. He should throw about the same number of innings as he did while pitching for Houston and then Miami last season (180 IP in 2014), and while those innings will not bring forth a huge strikeout return, he does induce ground balls at an elite level: 2.31 GB/FB rate in 2014. He relies on a 93-94 MPH fastball with a change up and curve to keep hitters honest, and does not yield many long balls (0.5 HR/9 last year). He and his teammate (for the nonce) Haren are both useful pitchers for your fantasy roster, although you do not need to keep such a close eye on Cosart’s venue, due to his ground ball rate and lack of home runs allowed.
2015 Projections: 11 Wins/135 K/3.60 ERA/1.29 WHIP over 185 innings
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Jesse Hahn OAK ADP: 350.0
If in doubt, look to take a pitcher that Billy Beane has added to the Oakland staff. That has been my mantra for the past few seasons, and it holds true for Hahn as well. He
has not been nearly as sharp this spring in Arizona as he was in his first MLB season for San Diego, but still has posted a 3.06 ERA over 17.2 innings. It is his 11:5 K/BB ratio that concerns, as he put up a respectable 70:32 K/BB ratio over 73.1 innings in 2014. As with Cosart who was profiled just a few inches above, he is an extreme ground ball pitcher, which is not all that important in his new park (nor in his home park last season either, for that matter), and he also limits the ability of batters to take him deep (0.5 HR/9 in 2014). He should generate a respectable amount of Ks, with his 91 MPH fastball although his control will elevate his WHIP to something a bit higher than I like with my starting pitchers. Plus, his innings will most likely be limited this season, as he only tossed 115.2 innings over the course of 2014, and he may end up in the bullpen to conserve his arm and avoid injury at some point this season. Still, he pitches for Oakland and was a trade target of Billy Beane, both good indicators of future success.
2015 Projections: 9 Wins/127 K/3.68 ERA/1.31 WHIP over 145 innings
Jimmy Nelson MIL ADP: 355.5
Nelson was dealing with hamstring issues early in camp, but now appears to have healed sufficiently to claim the fifth starter role for the Brewers. He was a stud in Triple-A in 2014, posting a 1.46 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 111 innings, racking up 114 Ks to only 32 walks. Things did not go so smoothly once he was called up to the big club (4.93 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in just under 70 innings pitched), but a 66.3% strand rate and .354 BABIP hint that maybe he was a tad unlucky, although his 3.85 FIP may disagree a bit (his 2014 ERA with Milwaukee was an awful 4.93). He features a mid-90s fastball, and a quality slider, plus he tends to keep the ball inside the park (0.8 HR/9 in 2014). I personally like him to rebound this season, having dipped his toe in the MLB last season, but also would not be surprised for him to struggle and get sent down to work on his skill set in Triple-A at some point this season. Therefore, realize if you select him, he may not a long-term option for your fantasy rotation in 2015.
2015 Projections: 9 Wins/138 K/3.60 ERA/1.27 WHIP over 160 innings
Continue to peruse these articles as we try to uncover some late round gems for you to target in your drafts, and allow you to build a formidable starting rotation without sacrificing offense to do so. Also, if there is interest in later round middle relievers, I would be glad to include those pitchers in future articles as well. If you have any questions about starting pitching or fantasy baseball, feel free to contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com.