Saturday, and thus it must be time for another late round pitching suggestion article. Realize that one or possibly two of the players profiled below does not have a starting rotation position locked up for 2015. Does that mean they are not worthy of discussion? Of course not. So let us see what they have to offer for the upcoming season.

To spell out some guidelines, this series of articles is going to profile starting pitchers that have an ADP of 200 or better (meaning taken later than pick 200). In a 10 team league, those pitchers would be going in round 21 or later (it would be mid-way through round 16 in a 12 team league). By that point in your draft, you have more than likely filled out your starting offense and picked up an ace and closer, perhaps a couple more pitchers. Your mileage may vary depending on your actual league settings, but you get the general idea.

Please note that the projections for each of the pitchers below are my own, that I create after comparing various sources and adjusting for expected playing time, specifically, innings pitched for starting pitchers. As for the ADP numbers, I am looking at the ADP results our very own Howard Bender is compiling with his Mock Draft Army mocks.

R.A. Dickey Toronto Blue JaysR.A. Dickey TOR BAL ADP: 290.6

If you like a yo-yo type pitcher, then Dickey is just the guy for you. His knuckleball will always make him a questionable starter, and the rise in BB/9 from 2012 to 2014 is alarming (2.08, 2.84 and 3.09). He is not going to strike out tons of batters, but I will take his 7.22 K/9 rate from last season, so long as he can keep his ratio stats in line (3.71 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2014). He is not pitching in the best home park, but the offense backing him up should result in double digit victories. As a late late round pick, you could do a lot worse. Personally, I think if he starts throwing that hard knuckler again, you may end up with a late round steal if you grab him in the 24th round, which is where he is being drafted now.

2015 Projections: 12 Wins/156 K/3.68 ERA/1.26 WHIP over 190 innings

Aaron Sanchez TOR ADP: 292.8

No guarantee he will not inherit the closer role in Toronto this season, so drafting him as a starting pitcher may give you headaches or result in you looking like the smartest guy in your draft. He possesses an elite 97 MPH fastball, and his 3.18 GB/FB ratio is fantastic. The Jays seem to want him to be their fifth starting pitcher, but his true value would be as their closer, at least if we are talking fantasy baseball value. If you are looking at his 2014 ratios (1.09 ERA/0.70 WHIP and .164 BABIP), then you have to imagine he will suffer some regression, as his FIP was 2.87, which is still exceptional. He does not give up many home runs, as witnessed by his 0.3 HR/9 rate in 2014. His control was not reflective of his career numbers in 2014, when he walked three batters per nine innings, and I would expect that to adjust as he adjusts to major league umpiring. Just realize, if you draft him late as a starter, that could change dramatically, especially if Brett Cecil stumbles early on this season.

2015 Projections: 5 Wins/83 K/3.70 ERA/1.34 WHIP over 100 innings

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Yusmeiro Petit SF ADP: 296.5

Early reports are that the Giants are going with Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong to round out their rotation to start off the spring. Thus, Petit will become a “super reliever” to quote Giant manager BruceYusmeiro Petit San Francisco Giants Bochy. He was a very effective reliever in 2014, his numbers being inflated once he was moved to the rotation. Right now I would draft him as the 6th starter in San Francisco, as neither Lincecum nor Vogelsong have that secure a lock on their spot in the rotation. His great control and strikeout potential (1.69 BB/9 and 10.23 K/9 in 2014) are selling points in his favor, but if you are drafting him for counting stats instead of ratios, then you may end up disappointed.

2015 Projections: 7 Wins/138 K/3.50 ERA/1.16 WHIP over 135 innings

 

 

 

Kyle Lohse Milwaukee BrewersKyle Lohse MIL ADP: 296.6

Talk about dependable. An innings eater, with the ability to provide good ratios, he is going too late in drafts, except for the fact that pitching is deeper than ever this season. Do not expect many strikeouts from him but do look for a great WHIP and control (1.15 WHIP and 2.09 BB/9 in 2014). He has been able to post below league average BABIPs over the past several seasons, so look for that trend to continue, which should keep him in games. His strand rate of 72.8% in 2014 was a bit off his career rate of 70.7%, so there is that going for him this season, too. If you can get him as your final pick, take it and rub your fellow owners’ noses in it.

2015 Projections: 13 Wins/130 K/3.70 ERA/1.19 WHIP over 190 innings

Continue to peruse these articles as we try to uncover some late round gems for you to target in your drafts, and allow you to build a formidable starting rotation without sacrificing offense to do so. Also, if there is interest in later round middle relievers, I would be glad to include those pitchers in future articles as well. If you have any questions about starting pitching or fantasy baseball, feel free to contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com.