Spring training games have started and I am tempted to quote the late great Ernie Harwell (being a Detroit native), who was reciting from the Song of Solomon 2.11-12:
"For lo, the winter is past, the rain is over and gone; the flowers appear on the earth; the time of the singing of birds is come, and the voice of the turtle is heard in our land."
Yep, all is right with the world again, as baseball brings us all hope… and this series of articles is here to help you find some late round gems among the starting pitching options in your drafts. Listen for that turtle’s voice, he may be murmuring about some of the pitchers I have profiled these past weeks.
To spell out some guidelines, this series of articles is going to profile starting pitchers that have an ADP of 200 or better (meaning taken later than pick 200). In a 10 team league, those pitchers would be going in round 21 or later (it would be mid-way through round 16 in a 12 team league). By that point in your draft, you have more than likely filled out your starting offense and picked up an ace and closer, perhaps a couple more pitchers. Your mileage may vary depending on your actual league settings, but you get the general idea.
Please note that the projections for each of the pitchers below are my own, that I create after comparing various sources and adjusting for expected playing time, specifically, innings pitched for starting pitchers. As for the ADP numbers, I am looking at the ADP results our very own Howard Bender is compiling with his Mock Draft Army mocks.
Chris Tillman BAL ADP: 274.1
I will just come out and say it; I do not want to draft Tillman onto any of my teams this season. Sure, he had a nice second half in 2014 and is the ace of the Baltimore staff, but he has a problem with the long ball (1.09 HR/9 last season), and pitches in entirely the wrong home ballpark with that tendency. He also has a low strikeout potential, only garnering a 6.51 K/9 in 2014. His 4.08 FIP belies his tempting 3.34 ERA from 2014 and his .279 BABIP and 76.1% strand rate indicate that he was lucky last year. If he is there in the last round of your draft, go ahead and give him a shot. Otherwise, I would counsel you to let someone else absorb the risk in 2015.
2015 Projections: 12 Wins/157 K/3.68 ERA/1.26 WHIP over 200 innings
John Lackey StL ADP: 275.8
Lackey will keep the ball on the ground enough that, coupled with a good but not great strikeout rate (7.45 K/9 in 2014) and decent control( 2.14 BB/9 last season, and a 3.49
K/BB ratio), he is a very nice option late in drafts as your back of the rotation SP5/6. Pitching in the NL helps him improve his strikeout rate and reduce his ratio stats, and being on a winning team is always a chance to boost a pitcher’s fantasy stat line. He clocks in at just under 92 MPH with his fastball, and not overly generous with the long ball, although that could improve with the move to St. Louis from Boston over a full season. I do not fully understand the early reluctance to draft him this season, but then again, as you will hear over and over and over, pitching is deep in 2015. If you like to draft extra pitching at the end of your drafts, keep Lackey in your queue once round 20 rolls around. He is better than a round 23 pick, but if he falls that far, his value is too good to pass up.
2015 Projections: 13 Wins/160 K/3.95 ERA/1.35 WHIP over 195 innings
Carlos Martinez StL ADP: 289.8
The issue with our second Cardinal pitcher being profiled this week is where he will end up in the St. Louis pitching staff: starter or reliever? He has made it known that he will do what the team asks of him, but has also expressed a desire to start as opposed to relieve. He made seven spot starts in 2014, but also appeared in relief a whopping 50 times. He is slated to start the Cards’ first spring training game against the Marlins, so there is hope he will move into the rotation as the fifth starter. He features a 96.7 MPH fastball, and was able to post a 8.46 K/9 over 89.1 IP in 2014, although his control is a concern (3.63 BB/9, resulting in a less than stellar 2.33 K/BB ratio). His 3.24 FIP last season suggests his 4.03 ERA was inflated, and that he was a bit unlucky, as reflected by a .339 BABIP. Posting a 0.4 HR/9 and 2.03 GB/FB ratio suggest that he could be dominant on the mound. Should he lock up a starting rotation spot, his ADP is going to shoot up the charts, so drafting early may be a benefit if you want to target him. My projections are based on him having a fifth starter’s role; should he spend significant time in the bullpen, then depress the wins. strikeouts and innings, and figure a slightly lower WHIP of around 1.29, although I do not see his ERA moving much at all.
2015 Projections: 7 Wins/117 K/3.60 ERA/1.32 WHIP over 145 innings
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Henderson Alvarez MIA ADP: 292.9
Alvarez is a ground ball inducer, pure and simple. His 93.5 MPH sinking fastball led to a superb 2.53 GB/FB ratio in 2014, and he coupled that with an excellent 1.59 BB/9
ratio, exhibiting great control. He was also able to keep the ball in the park with a 0.67 HR/9 rate last season. The worries are that his BABIP and strand rate show that he was lucky in 2014 (.306 and 81.1% respectively), and that some regression is due this season. He pitches deep into games, which is valuable if you are in a minimum innings pitched league, having tossed three complete game shutouts last year. With Mat Latos moving into the rotation this season, he becomes the true No. 2 starter, at least until Jose Fernandez returns from his Tommy John surgery mid-season. Even with his limited strikeout potential, his other skills make him a steal late in drafts, as his stats play well as your SP6. Just do not snipe him if you are in a draft with me.
2015 Projections: 12 Wins/115 K/3.58 ERA/1.27 WHIP over 190 innings
Continue to peruse these articles as we try to uncover some late round gems for you to target in your drafts, and allow you to build a formidable starting rotation without sacrificing offense to do so. Also, if there is interest in later round middle relievers, I would be glad to include those pitchers in future articles as well. If you have any questions about starting pitching or fantasy baseball, feel free to contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com.