As we finish up with the AL East, I would note that the Blue Jays have been searching for answers in the way of starting pitchers for the past few years. I am not so sure that 2014 is going to provide their answers. In the AL East, it is important to get to the 6th inning, keeping your team in the game, and I am not sure that the Toronto staff can provide that buffer.

Starting Pitching Rotation Analysis

Toronto Blue Jays

AL East

Projected Rotation

Pitcher

IP

W

K

ERA

WHIP

ADP

R.A. Dickey

196

12

154

4.13

1.26

173

Brandon Morrow

154

9

144

4.21

1.33

356

Mark Buehrle

198

11

126

4.32

1.33

389

J.A. Happ

144

8

123

4.63

1.46

*

Drew Hutchison

81

5

67

4.22

1.34

*

 

Potential Rotation Alternatives

Pitcher

IP

W

K

ERA

WHIP

ADP

Esmil Rogers

129

6

103

4.61

1.44

*

Todd Redmond

130

7

107

4.57

1.36

*

ADP designated by * indicates no reported ADP as of date of publication. Projections are based on a compilation of several sources (ZiPS, Oliver, Steamer, RotoChamp), given equal weight.

When R. A. Dickey made his move to Toronto, I figured he would do well pitching in the Rogers Centre with the dome. It was a false assumption, based on his 2013 performance: 4.21 ERA and 13 losses. His WHIP was a positive at 1.24, and if he can get back to striking out batters at close to a strikeout per inning, then he becomes very valuable as a middle round draft choice. I have to believe the move from the NL East to the AL East was a bit of a shock to his system, as well, but with a year under his belt, a rebound is not out of question.

Injuries have derailed Brandon Morrow's success over the last two seasons, but he showed up in camp large and in charge this spring. It is the Jays' hope that the additional weight can help his endurance, but I worry when a pitcher makes dramatic changes to his physique, as that can alter his pitching motion, and repeatable action on the mound is more likely to result in a consistent pitcher. He was still throwing a 93-94 MPH fastball in 2013, but the failure to get the third strike or end up providing a free pass is concerning. I might consider him for a late flier pick, but not much more than that.

Mark Buehrle is a solid, if unspectacular starting pitcher. Draft him for his inning eating ability, but don't expect an ERA below 4 or a WHIP under 1.30, both being my limits when drafting pitchers.  He posted a career best K/9 of 6.14 in 2014, which is below average, and expect that ratio to decline in 2014. Unless you are in an AL-only league, don't succumb to temptation but rather avoid him in your draft.

J.A. Happ was not much a factor for the Jays in 2013, after taking a ball off the noggin, starting just 18 games for less than 100 innings. When he pitched, he wasn't lighting the sky on fire, either, with a 4.56 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.  He had some success in 2009 and 2010 with Philly and Houston, but that has been absent since those seasons.  Walks and fly balls have secured his place as a non-relevant fantasy pitcher and you would do well to avoid him this season.

Esmil Rogers by default appeaeds to have the inside track to the fifth starter position.  That alone should tell you how weak the Toronto starting rotation is in 2014. He does possess a decent fastball, but it does not translate into strikeouts, and his control, while better in 2013 than the prior seasons, is still shaky. If you are considering drafting him, you are either in a large league or an AL-only league. Otherwise, he is better left to pollute another owner's roster.

It now appears likely that Drew Hutchison is going to be the fifth starter in Toronto. Coming off Tommy John surgery, he is looking sharp this spring. He demonstrated an elite K/9 rate in Triple-A last season, and has racked up 9 strikeouts in five innings in his two spring starts. He would be a nice sleeper pick late in drafts, if you have the roster room.

Todd Redmond got the chance to start in 2013 due to the numerous injuries suffered by the Blue jays in 2013, and he did post a 1.21 WHIP. He also put up a 4.32 ERA and gave up homers at a rate of 1.5 per nine innings pitched. A low GB/FB ratio of 0.64 hurts his chances to be anything more than a back of the rotation filler, or a spot starter. Certainly, you want to avoid him in fantasy circles.

Kyle Drabek carries a nice pedigree, his dad being Doug of Pirate and Astro fame, but what he does on the mound is nothing his dad would applaud. The fact that Ervin Santana signed with the Braves today gives him some hope to make the rotation, but an average fastball and limited control are obstacles to overcome that I am not at all certain will be overcome by Drabek this season …or the next. Je s best left to others to draft.

As I indicated above, there is not much I have to praise as far as the Blue Jays in 2014. Aside from hoping for a Dickey rebound, I cannot recommend any of the other pitchers for your roster in 2014, although if one of these guys breaks out, then you have my permission to add him to your roster …just don't hold your breath.      

If you disagree with my assessments, or just want to discuss starting pitching,I can be reached at ia@fantasyalarm.com.  I enjoy comments and am more than willing to engage in discussion about fantasy baseball, so feel free to write.