Tampa Bay Rays Projected Starting Rotation Analysis

The Rays' young pitching corps is panning out very nicely, but we've seen the Tampa Bay front office and scouting staff find gems before. After their ace, the team can trot out a solid group of young pitchers that give them a great chance to compete in the tough AL East.

Starting Pitching Rotation Analysis

Tampa Bay Rays

AL East

Projected Rotation

Potential Rotation Alternatives

ADP designated by * indicates no reported ADP as of date of publication. Projections are based on a compilation of several sources (ZiPS, Oliver, Steamer, RotoChamp), given equal weight.

David Price is the unquestioned ace of the Rays' staff, and with good reason. He commands an elite fastball, and his control has improved over the past couple of seasons, coming in last year with 5.59 K/BB ratio. He can dominate a game, and put up 4 complete games last season, despite missing a month with a triceps issue. At 28 years of age, he is a starting pitcher to target as your SP1 in 2014.

Lefty Matt Moore saw a decrease in fastball velocity in 2013, and missed time in August with an elbow injury, but still posted impressive stats:  17 wins with only 4 losses, 3.29 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  His control needs to improve to reach elite level, as his 4.55 BB/9 ratio contributes to his elevated WHIP, and depressed his K/BB in 2013 to a mediocre 1.88. Improved fastball velocity due to a new workout regimen could elevate his game to SP2 status.

Alex Cobb was brilliant in 2013, despite sitting out two months after taking a line drive to the head. Many worried that he would be a different player after that incident, but he never missed a beat, and posted five wins over his last nine starts, with only one loss, and a dominant 2.41 ERA during those last two months of the season. He strikes out a good share of hitters, and posted a nearly 3:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks, which when coupled with his extreme groundball inducing tendencies, bodes well for his peripheral stat line. Cobb is going slightly earlier than Moore in early drafts, and if 2013 is any indication of his skills, he should continue to move up the ADP ranks.

An AL Rookie of the Year finalist in 2013, Chris Archer burst onto the scene after being called up from Triple-A last season, and has secured himself a rotation spot this season. Armed with a 95 MPH fastball and a hard slider, he has demonstrated good control (2.66 K/BB). Despite his fastball, he has to rely on his defense as his K/9 is only average, but his tendency to influence batters to hit the ball on the ground plays in his favor. Archer should be on your radar as you head into the phase of your draft where you round out your starting rotation.

He only appeared in seven games last season, but Jake Odorizzi is slotted in as the fifth starter in Tampa Bay this season, primarily due to the injury to Jeremy Hellickson (more on that below). He has been productive in the minors with both the Kansas City and Tampa Bay systems, and demonstrates good strikeout capabilities, although his fastball clocks in at just above 90 MPH. His control is good, but he will need to produce more missed bats to be an effective starting pitcher at the MLB level.

Jeremy Hellickson is not expected to return from his elbow surgery until the first six to eight weeks of the season have been played. That opened the door for Odorizzi to fight for the fifth spot in the rotation. Hellickson says his elbow feels "real good" and that there is good movement, but he is not ready to air it out yet. Last season saw a steep spike in ERA (5.17) and a reduction in his fastball speed, but that could be related to the loose bodies that were removed arthroscopically from his elbow. The jury is out on Hellickson until he returns from his rehab.

The Rays signed Erik Bedard for some competition at the fifth starter role. Bedard had a decent season with Houston in 2013, striking out batters at an 8.2 K/9 clip, but he also suffered control problems and posted a 4.47 BB/9, which didn't help his ERA or WHIP, 4.59 and 1.48 respectively. Bedard has had brief moments of fantasy relevance since his stellar 2007 season in Baltimore, but injuries and lack of control have destined him to waiver wire status for the most part. I cannot in good faith suggest he should be drafted in 2014, unless he makes the Rays' rotation, and then only in AL-only leagues.

The Tampa Bay club is poised to compete in the AL East once again, and their pitching staff is poised to keep them in games and let their offense do its thing. Any of the top four starters should find their places on fantasy rosters, and provide their owners with good to great stat lines when all is said and done in September.

If you disagree with my assessments, or just want to discuss starting pitching,I can be reached at ia@fantasyalarm.com.  I enjoy comments and am more than willing to engage in discussion about fantasy baseball, so feel free to write.