MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 118

UFC Fight Night 118 takes place Saturday morning in Poland. It’s a card that wouldn’t get great ratings on TV, not only because of the start time, but due to the overall talent on the card. The main event is great, pitting Donald Cerrone versus Darren Till, but the card top to bottom doesn’t stack up to a typical UFC card. These are the cards that can typically surprise us though, so let’s not sleep on it.

There aren’t many underdogs on this card that we can target with confidence, so constructing lineups hasn’t been the easiest exercise that I’ve ever undertaken handicapping. We will have to take some shots with a few fighters, hoping that they pull off the hailmary upset. DraftKings will usually give us a gift or two with underdog fighters that have some value in their salaries, but this card they have been pretty stingy, so we’ll have to get creative.

There are a good number of Polish fighters on the card fighting in front of their home fans, and I think there are a few fights that the UFC is setting up for the home fighter to take the win, and hopefully in dramatic fashion. You can read between the lines and figure out who these fighters are. The UFC knows that they need to start building some new stars in its stable of fighters, especially in Europe. You will see matchmaking at work in these situations, setting up a young up and comer to dominate his foreign opponent. I’m banking on a few of these to happen at Fight Night 118.

This is a very tough card to handicap from a DFS perspective, but that typically means folks like me have an even bigger advantage than the casual MMA DFS ‘capper, and I have a feeling that we’ll come out on top with the fight by fight analysis below, as well as my optimals. I also supplied everyone with a contrarian GPP lineup that may work well if things fall our way. Keep in mind, use the fight by fight handicapping to formulate your own rosters, but feel free to use our example rosters as a basis as well.

Be sure to follow along as I live Tweet during the fights - @TJ_Scott_MMA . Good luck to all, and lets make it rain!

Undercard

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night in Poland has 29 year old Felipe Arantes, who stands at 5-4 in the UFC, taking on 32 year old American, Josh Emmett. Emmett throws with a good amount of volume, averaging just over 4 Strike Landed per Minute (SLpM), but he has a pentiant of taking his fights the distance, as all 3 of his UFC fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards (2 wins and 1 loss), and 7 of his 12 professional fights have gone to a decision. Not exactly what we’re looking for in a rosterable fighter. I like the volume he throws with, but “Captain Decision” isn’t what I’m looking for.

Emmett lost a split decision to Des Green back in April of this year. Emmett ended up throwing a high volume of punches, but didn’t land at a very high rate. He ended up gassing in the 3rd due to his high output, and was picked apart by Green’s jab. Emmett had a real problem with the counter punching of Green, as he was not patient, and found himself throwing wildly without many connecting. Has Team Alpha Male worked on this problem, and has Emmett fixed this hole in his game? That is the real question.

If Emmett can throw his weight around, and get Arantes to the ground, then I could see him unleashing some GNP, and making it a long night for Arantes, but this is also the position where Arantes can sub Emmett, as he does have skills of his back. This is what makes this fight so interesting from a DraftKings perspective. There aren’t many “Live Dogs” on this card, and Arantes I would consider one of them, but do I think he’ll win this fight - no. But you are almost forced to play him in a good amount of your GPP lineups, as there aren’t many opportunities on the card to save salary cap space, and have a good chance of winning the fight where you took the dog.

On the flip side, I think Emmett has a very good chance of racking up some serious points here, as I think he is a better striker than Arantes, and his size will allow him to stuff the takedowns, keep the fight standing, and land blows at will. Will he stop Arantes, probably not, but I could see him landing a significant amount of strikes, and winning a convincing decision, and score close to 100 points. He’s tough to swallow due to his $9,100 salary, but I also think Emmett will be low owned, making him a nice contrarian play in our GPP lineups.

This is a dicey one, and I’ll probably have exposure to both of these fighters in my GPP LU’s, and I’ll probably have Emmett littered throughout most of my Cash lineups as well. His low ownership is great, his salary sucks, and his ceiling is pretty high, as is his floor. An interesting DFS matchup to say the least. You aren’t wrong on either side here, I just think you can use each one of these fighters in certain formats and LU’s, making them both appealing.

Here’s one thing I’ll say from a betting perspective; this line is completely messed up! Like Donald Trump messed up! Emmett should not be a -320 favorite in this fight! Maybe a -225, but no where near a 3 to 1! There is definitely value here in Arantes, so I’d put a small bet on him, and ride his +250 line, and roll the dice! I think this also can be said for his DK salary. His $7,100 salary should probably be closer to $7,800 or so. This is why I see the value in Arantes from a DK perspective, and he’s a solid contrarian GPP play if you are looking for 6 wins with a few dogs mixed in.

PICK: Emmett, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Emmett (8/10): I like his odds of victory, but he could lose this one via sub too. I think his ceiling and floor are both high enough for me to roster in my Cash LU’s.

GPP: Emmett (7.5/10): He’s appealing from a GPP perspective because his ownership will be low, and he has a high volume game that suits DK scoring well. His salary hurts though.

Arantes (7/10): I like Arantes too, as he saves you some serious salary cap, and his odds of victory are much greater than what his $7,100 price tag calls for.

Snapshot:

Fight #2 of the night is a 135 pound women’s battle between 22 year old Aspen Ladd, who comes in with a good amount of hype following her, as she takes on 35 year old Lina Lansberg. This is a tough one, as women’s fights have become increasingly unpredictable from a DraftKings scoring perspective. We get these women’s fights that are high output, aggressive offensive battles that rack up a boat load of points, and then we get these other women’s fights that are snoozers, and the dance around and “feel each other out” for 15 minutes.

On top of the unpredictability of women’s fights, this one has a lot of question marks surrounding it by itself. Ladd is 13 years younger than Lansberg, and you have to assume that this youth advantage will show through in the later rounds of a high output fight. You start leaning heavily towards Ladd, and it makes sense since she is a -270 favorite, but she does also own an $8,800 DK salary, and this makes sense with those odds, but Ladd also is making her UFC debut, and we all know how these can turn out…….who knows. Some fighters succum to the pressure, and lay an egg in the cage, while others rise to the occassion and make the most out of their big stage debut. Add in the fact that Ladd is only 23, and the dreaded debut jitters become more of a reality…...or do they? Is she too young to realize the magnatude of her situation? As you know by now, fights with a lot of question marks I tend to shy away from, and this one if no different. I may own Ladd in a few GPP LU’s, but she won’t be in my top 2 GPP LU’s due to the unknown that’s present in this fight. Roll the dice if you’d like, but don’t come complaining to me.

PICK: Ladd, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A - Maybe a small exposure to Ladd in a few LU’s.

Snapshot:

Touahri is a late replacement, taking on the 6 fight UFC vet, Warley Alves in a Welterweight battle. Alves is a big favorite coming in at -310 with a salary of $9,200, so you’ll have to pay for those big odds! Alves will most likely go out there and dominate within the 1st round, but you can’t 100% guarantee this, as Alves has had some piss poor performances in the Octagon.

I think that Alves will be a popular play for many, especially in GPP’s. Regardless of his ownership levels, I think you need to have some serious exposure to Alves, as he is one of the few almost “locks” (call him a half-lock) on the card for a 100+ point night. His $9,200 price tag isn’t too bad for the upside that he brings to the table, and I think that’s worth having a decent amount of exposure to in my GPP lineups.

PICK: Alves, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Alves (9/10): I like his upside and salary isn’t bad. He’s a confident play in Cash LU’s.

GPP: Alves (8.5/10): As mentioned, his upside and reasonable salary are attractive, but his high ownership levels will be a detractor.

Snapshot:

Fight #4 is a very interesting matchup, as Conor’s boy, Artem Lobov, takes on Andre “Touchy” Fili in this 145 pound bout. Fili is coming off a decision loss to Calvin Kattar where he was out-pointed on the feet. Fili has a solid striking game, while Lobov has almost no striking defense, and doesn’t poses much power in his hands or feet.

Lobov is a decision machine (65% of his fights go the distance), and Fili also has a game that caters to the fight going to the judges’ scorecards. These guys have some of the worst Inside the Distance props on the card (+560 for Lobov, and +370 for Fili), so I wouldn’t hold your breath for a finish. The thing I keep coming back to though is how bad Fili looked in his last fight when he was a big favorite. Will he come in guns blazing, looking to prove a point, and show the fans that he is a much better fighter than what he showed last time out. Even if he wants to end this one quickly and violently, I don’t think he’ll be able to, as Lobov is a tough SOB, and has grinded out many fights to a decision (wins and losses) over the course of his career.

From a DK perspective this is a tough one to have a strong position on. I’ll have some exposure to Lobov due to his low salary, and chance of racking up some points in a decision loss, and who knows, maybe a weird, controversial decision win! I’ll have more exposure to Fili in my GPP’s, as I do think he will up his volume in this fight, and we know Lobov has no striking defense at all, making for a good setting to land over 160 significant strikes for Fili. I like Fili in my Cash lineups, as I do think he wins, and I’m not overly worried about Lobov taking a scummy, backdoor decision, as Lobov has a game that is pretty unattractive for a judge to watch, and although he is tough as nails and can take a punch, he isn’t often moving forward when doing this.

From a betting perspective, I think this line is off. I really like Fili at -175, and I’d grab it now, as it will be more than -200 come fight time.

PICK: Fili, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Fili (7.5/10): I think he wins, but questions around his output make me somewhat hesitant.

GPP: Fili (7/10): High ceiling? Yes, but which Fili will we get? The last one out, or the hyped phenom?

Lobov (6/10): Looking to save some salary cap, and still have an outside chance at victory? Lobov may be a good play for you.

Snapshot:

Smilin’ Sam Alvey is taking this fight on short notice, and has to cut A LOT of weight, and this could prove to be a big factor in the fight. We’ll have to keep an eye on this leading up to weigh ins, and pay close attention at weigh-ins.

Emeev has a pretty good wrestling game, and has pretty heavy hands, but he is not a very technical boxer, and is prone to getting hit solidly. He has a tendency to throw wild outside punches while rushing in with his chin high. This is a perfect recipe to get KO’ed, especially when battling a fighter like Sam Alvey, who has very heavy hands, and is known for his KO abilities.

The downside of Alvey is that he is incredibly inconsistent, and has thrown up some serious tinkers with very little activity. Is crazy because Alvey has great hands, but there are some fights where he just doesn’t throw them, and he plays a very cautious game, overly concerned with getting KO’ed, or losing on the scorecards. Combine Alvey’s inconsistent past production with the fact that he has to cut like 30 pounds in a few days, and will most likely not have much of a gas tank, and this turns out to be a fighter that I really don’t like, and am very concerned to roster.

I do think that Alvey knows that he won’t be able to go the distance and be effective in the later rounds in this fight, so he’ll need to be aggressive out of the gate, and throw heavy hands in the 1st round, hoping for a KO. If this is going to be his approach, then I’d be much more interested in rostering him, but unfortunately we just don’t know what Sam Alvey we’ll get in this fight. I will have some exposure to Alvey (maybe 15-20%) in my GPP’s, but I won’t be overly optimistic about those lineups. I’ll also be playing Emeev in a good amount of my LU’s, as I think he’ll be able to avoid the KO, and will eventually wear down Alvey in the later rounds, as he has proven to have t a solid gas tank in his previous fights with M-1 in Russia. Also keep in mind that his travel is much less than what Alvey has to do on short notice.

I could see Alvey being aggressive and KO’ing a hard charging Emeev with his chin held high, but odds are that we’ll most likely see Emeev out point Alvey, and grind out a win in the later rounds. The former would result in a nice DK score, while the latter would most likely be a 70-80 point DK decision victory. My algorithm has both of these fighters in the 2nd half of the projection rankings (Alvey = 19th, Emeev = 16th), and I have a feeling that this are pretty accurate when it comes to these two fighters on Saturday night. A lot of question marks on many of the fights on this card.

PICK: Emeev, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: I don’t mind rostering either guy here. Both would be a 6/10, as there isn’t a huge level of confidence for a victory, and the floor is pretty low, as is the ceiling. I’d look elsewhere.

GPP: Emeev (7/10): I kind of like Emeev here, as I think he’ll be low owned, and this fight is lining up nicely, where he may be able to get multiple takedowns, and land punches at will if Alvey is gassed, and unprepared for the fight. He could be a shady contrarian play that racks up 100+ points. Mark my words!

Alvey (7/10): I am only ranking him so high because if he does win, it will be in the 1st round, and will be a fight ending KO. This would be 100+ points, and we like those scores, but the odds of this happening are a crapshoot.

Snapshot:

Fight number 6 has American, Brian Kelleher, taking on Poland’s own, Damian Stasiak. Kelleher is a vet of the sport who cut his teeth on the northeast regional scene before getting his shot in the UFC where he pulled out a huge upset over Irui Alcantara, shocking the DFS MMA community in the process. The next time out he completely shit his pants and let the entire DFS MMA community down by losing via submission to Marlon Vera! Such highs and lows in this sport, and Brian Kelleher can tell you about that.

I like Kelleher in this one, but I don’t think he stops Stasiak before the final bell, and I also think that he’ll look to keep the fight standing, eliminating our chances of collecting those ever-valuable grappling points (ground reversals, and advances have proven to be very valuable in the new DK scoring system). I have realized that many of the fighters who want to outbox their opponents, stay off the mat, and don’t have an excessive amount of power in their hands to end the fight, end up floundering in mediocrity and not scoring impressive numbers. This is exactly the game that I think Kelleher looks to implement; outstrike Stasiak on the feet, stuff any takedown attempts, and stay off the mat, as Stasiak has proven to be dangerous on his back, and Kelleher has 8 submission loses in his career. If I was his coach I’d be telling him to outstrike the Pole, and stay off the mat! If this happens, then I think Kelleher scores 70 - 80 points, and that’s not exactly what we’re looking for in rosterable fighters.

I do like Kelleher’s odds from a betting perspective though, as I think he is a much more technical fighter than Stasiak, and he has surrounded himself with much better training partners and opponents throughout his career than Stasiak has, and I think this shows through with a superior striking game, and a superior Fight IQ, and you know how much I like my high Fight IQ fighters!

PICK: Kelleher, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Kelleher (8/10): Good opportunity to save some cap space, and I like the odds of victory here!

GPP: Kelleher (6.5/10): I don’t necessarily like Kelleher in GPP’s, as I don’t think he’ll get himself into too much danger with Stasiak, and will most likely outpoint him on the feet, and win a decision. Ceiling is too low.

Snapshot:

Here we are. Another card with the warn down Anthony Hamilton. He lost back in September in a mere 24 seconds to Daniel Spitz. Hamilton has lost 3 fights in a row in the UFC, and has proven to have almost no chin at all, getting KO’ed with ease, especially in recent years. I would not put any faith in Hamilton, and I can realistically see him unconscious on the canvas within 2 minutes of the opening bell. I also could see him winning this fight, as he’s taking on a mediocre regional talent in Poland’s Adam Wieczorek.

The Pole is 8-1 in his professional career, and is making his debut, but arguably doesn’t deserve to be in the UFC if you just look at his talent. Wieczorek is currently a -150 favorite, and this line has bounced around quite a bit since it opened. Hamilton is taking this fight on two weeks notice, and with his history, I could see Wieczorek getting a 1st round KO, and racking up 90-100 points for your roster. But I could also see Hamilton win this fight if he doesn’t get caught early.

So how should you be looking at this fight from a DFS perspective? When analyzing fights from a DFS perspective, you don’t just look at the odds of victory, and how many points you think a certain fighter can get you. You also need to take into account the ownership levels of these fighters, especially when you are looking to win a big GPP contest. Game theory is an important factor to take into account when analyzing fights, and this is a big reason why many former professional poker players do well in DFS. This game theory angle actually holds weight! I think it’s a factor to consider when making your decisions, but I don’t think it is something to solely consider when constructing lineups.

With that being said, I think AW will be highly owned due to Hamilton’s track record in the UFC, and him possibly having the single worst chin in the UFC. I always like betting against guys who have awful chins, and have not given themselves appropriate time to recover (6+ months). This is exactly where Hamilton is falling right now, and add to it that he is taking this fight on two weeks notice, and bam! You have recipe for a 100+ point night! But, he will be highly owned, and that is a bad thing to have when rostering a fighter in GPP.

I will have exposure to Wieczorek in some of my GPP LU’s, just because of the high likelihood of a quite stoppage win, but I will also have a few rosters with Hamilton in it, as he is a good source to save salary cap space, and has a better chance at winning this fight than most people will give him credit for. This is a tough one to handicap, and I would tread lightly when rostering either fighter.  

PICK: Wieczorek, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Wieczorek (6.5/10): He has a high ceiling, but Vegas odds are much closer than you’d like to see for a guy with his salary in your cash lineup. Tread lightly.

GPP: Wieczorek (7.5/10): I like his chances of putting up 100+ pts, but I’d rather not pay $8,600 for him. He also will be highly owned in GPP’s.

Hamilton (6/10): I will have a small exposure to Hamilton due to game theory being in our favor here. He will be low owned, and if he can pull off a 1st round stoppage, then you’ve set your lineup up to succeed!

Main Card

Snapshot:

Marcin Held entered the UFC as a much-hyped Bellator prospect, but the Polish fighter has not lived up to the hype, holding an 0-3 record so far in the Octagon. It is worth noting that his 2nd fight versus Joe Lauzon was a complete robbery by the judges, as Lauzon won one of the worst split decision victories that I have ever seen in MMA. In his 3rd fight he was dominating Damir Hadzovic for 2 rounds before making one mistake, and catching a knee to the head as he shot for a leglock, KOing him instantly, and sending his UFC record plunging to 0-3. Bottomline, Held’s talent level is much better than what his record shows, and this is why he is a -400 favorite with a $9,400 salary.

Haqparast is making his UFC debut, and has won his last 8 fights on the regional circuit, 7 of them by 1st round KO. He has a big overhand left that is effective, but he doesn’t have much else besides that. He does not throw his strikes in combination, and hopes to land his heavy left to end the fight. This is not good when fight top level competition in the UFC. He has been training with stud trainer Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA in Southern California, but has he had enough time with him to shape his striking game into something that can compete at the UFC level? I doubt it.

From a DK perspective, Held will be a very popular fighter in all formats, but you’ll have to pay for his services. He has a great Inside the Distance prop of -130, which is 2nd best on the card, so he definitely should be considered for all formats of your roster. Like I said though, everyone and their brother will also be on Held, as he is very likely to get the Afghan fighter to the mat, and submit him within the 1st 5 minutes.

I will definitely be considering Haqparast as a punt play in my lineups though! He is likely to lose, especially with Held fighting on his home soil, but he does have a puncher’s chance to pull off an upset here. I think he is one of the best punt play options on the card, and I’ll be using him as that in a good amount of my LU’s.

PICK: Held, Sub, 1st

Cash Game: Held (9/10): Odds of victory are high, and I think he has a very high ceiling as well. You’ll have to pay for him though.

GPP: Held (8/10): High ceiling, but a high price and high ownership bring his GPP value down slightly.

Snapshot:

Native son, Oskar Piechota, makes his UFC debut against 30 year old America, Jonathan Wilson, who is 1-2 in the UFC, and hasn’t shown much that impresses me in his UFC matches. Piechota is a stud grappler, and has made a name for himself on the mat. Wilson on the other hand has very heavy hands, but he doesn’t string his strikes together in combinations, preferring to land big, single punches from the outside.

This is an interesting matchup, as we don’t really know what we are going to get with Piechota. His striking is improving every time out, but his grappling is really where he can show his advantage over Wilson, and I suspect that he’ll try to close the distance quickly in order to take Wilson down and sub him out within the 1st frame. Without seeing Piechota in the UFC, it makes it difficult to bank on this result, so don’t jump into deep ownership of Piechota without knowing the unknown. Who knows what we’ll get, but I think he’ll be able to get this one to the ground.

I also think Piechota has a big advantage if this fight gets past the 1st round, as Wilson has proven to have a very shaky gas tank. This also feels like the UFC is trying to setup the hometown boy for his 1st big UFC win, and hopefully build some hype around him for future European events. From a practical promotional perspective, this approach makes complete sense, and you should be taking this into account when rostering Piechota. The UFC wants him to win, which often means the matchup is drastically in his favor.

PICK: Piechota, Sub, 1st

Cash Game: Piechota (8.5/10): I really like Piechota for my Cash LU’s, as I think he has a high ceiling, a high floor, and will get you 100+ pts.

GPP: Piechota (7.5/10): I think he’ll be highly owned, which limits his value in GPP’s, but his ceiling is high enough that you’ll want to have a good amount of exposure to the Polish fighter.

Snapshot:

Not too much to dive into on this one. Clark is a solid wrestler who likes to pull his opponents into deep waters, and grind them out. His chin is suspect, but he seems be becoming a smarter defensive fighter, and this should help his overall MMA game, and will not get caught as much as he has in the past.

Blachowicz is a Polish fighter who is 2-4 in the UFC. He has an ok striking game, but he is atrocious at stopping takedowns, and has a limited gas tank. These two negatives are big positives for Clark, and I think that this is how this fight will turn out.

Clark will throw some punches, close the distance, get Blachowicz against the cage, eventually get a takedown, and will land heavy GNP as he continues to advance position on the Polish fighter. He will win a lopsided decision, but the way this style of fighting shakes out, I think he has a chance to rack up a good amount of points in his decision victory. I also like his $8,400 salary, as I think his upside, and potential for scoring is much greater than what his salary represents.

PICK: Clark, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Clark (9/10): He is one of my favorite Cash game plays on the card.

GPP: Clark (8/10): I like his odds of winning, but he will be highly owned, and it will be a challenge to score 100+ points in a decision victory, but I think he can do it.

Snapshot:  

The co-main event of the evening is a women’s 115 pound contest that pits Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-500, $9,500) vs. Jackson-Wink fighter Jodie Esquibel (+400, $6,700). This isn’t a fight that interests me very much in DFS. These fighters go to the cards 67% and 75% of the time respectively, and that is awful! Great odds that this fight goes the distance, and I don’t foresee the winner scoring more than 90 points. This is not a fight I’d target for my GPP rosters, but I may have KK on a few of my Cash lineups.

This is a fight that has decision written all over it, and those aren’t the type of fights we are looking to target for our GPP lineups, especially when the big favorite costs $9,500 to roster, and is unlikely to pay off her large salary. Save your money!

PICK: Kowalkiewicz, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: KK (6.5/10): Expensive, and low ceiling, but she’ll win.

GPP: N/A

 

In the main event of the evening the iconic veteran, Donald Cerrone, takes on the undefeated, Darren Till. This is a great matchup, and should be a very entertaining fight for the fans! Cerrone has some top level striking, and has proven to be a top 5 fighter in both the Welterweight and Lightweight divisions over the last 5+ years. His Muay Thai striking is elite, and he has fought the best of the best at the highest levels for the majority of his career, and we have seen Cerrone both incredibly effective on the feet, and even on the ground. I really love Donald Cerrone! Not only in this fight, but as a fighter in general! The guy has balls, he has skills, and he competes every time he steps into the cage!

Darren Till is a solid striker, and hasn’t seen defeat yet in his professional career. He has never fought someone of Cerrone’s caliber during his career though, and I think this will be a rude awakening for the Brit! Till has proven to be an inconsistent fighter who does not consistently perform under the big lights. His aggressiveness seems to vary drastically, and I’m not sure why, but I do know that is not a quality that I like to see in the fighters that I like to back.

With that being said, I think there is only one way to lean from a DFS perspective. Cerrone….all day! I like him in GPP’s, and I also like him in Cash. His $8,500 price tag is very reasonable, and I can see Cerrone stopping Till in the 3rd or 4th round after delivering serious punishment with leg kicks, body kicks, and vicious clinch work. Cerrone will be one of my biggest plays on the card, and quite possibly might be my biggest play. Take it for what it’s worth, but regardless, lets make it rain!

PICK:  

Cash Game: Cerrone (9.5/10): I love his odds of winning, his ceiling is high, he’s getting 5 rounds, and the guys a stud.

GPP: Cerrone (9.5/10): See above.

Cash Rankings

GPP Rankings

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1

GPP 2 - Contrarian