UFC Singapore is taking place at 4:30 AM EST on Saturday morning, so make sure you set your alarm clocks to get those last lineups in. This Fight Night card is very interesting from a DraftKings perspective, and reminds me a lot of 3 cards ago when we had to go with the “Stars & Scrubs” model. We have some seriously big favorites on this card, with 7 fighters at $9,000 or more, it’s pretty obvious that it will be difficult to roster more than 2 of these 7 fighters, so you’ll have to get creative when putting together your lineups. I encourage you to use a mix of the high-end fighters that I like, and have a different combination of these 4-5 fighters that I like that are over $9k.

I will be taking a “Stars & Scrubs” approach, but I’ll also be playing some mid-tier fighters as well, and creating lineups with a focus on the mid-tier. Moral of the story, if you can afford it, go with a few LU’s that are “Stars & Scrubs”, and a few that are focused more on the mid-tier. This will give you some diversity, and a better overall chance to take down a big GPP.

With that being said, let’s jump into the fights, and get an idea of who I like on this card. Please follow me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA, as I’ll be live Tweeting during the event, and giving some last minute lineup advice as I watch and follow fighters closer to fight time. You can also join us in the MMA forum, and ask any MMA related questions that you may have! Let’s make it rain!

Undercard

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Ji Yeon Kim

Vs.

Lucie Pudilova

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

6

0

Record

6

2

0

0

UFC Record

0

1

5

0

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,000

DK Salary

$8,200

125

Vegas Odds

-145

33%

% Fights to Dec

50%

0

# of UFC Fights

1

Snapshot:

The first fight of the prelims has Ji Yeon Kim making her UFC debut against 23 year old Lucie Pudilova who is only making her 2nd appearance in the Octagon, so big-stage jitters could definitely be a factor here. There is very little footage of either fighter, so there isn’t much to go off of here, but what I can see is a big improvement in Pudilova’s boxing from her 1st loss to Lina Lansberg in late 2015 to her 2nd loss to Lansberg back in March of this year. Pudilova landed 99 krisp strikes against Lansberg, and her output was very attractive from a DFS perspective, and this is something we definitely want to keep in the backs of our minds as we start making some funky lineups to compete in those big GPP’s.

This is a tough one to call, and really is a coin flip when you look at the odds. Pudilova currently stands at a -140 favorite, while Kim is a +110 dog. This card is pretty tight from an odds perspective, and I think one of the few “Live Dogs” on the card is Kim. With GPP’s we are aiming to roster 6 fighters who win, regardless of salary, so that means that you’ll have to roster a few dogs that need to come through with a “W”. You want these dogs to be “Live Dogs”, and not dead dogs, so be sure to do a solid amount of research on these “Live Dogs”, and pick the few to roster that fit well within DK’s scoring system, and will give you a chance to take down that ever-elusive big GPP. I wouldn’t be wagering on this one due to the coin flip nature of this one, but I di see some value won

PICK: Pudilova, Decision, Unanimous                                             

Cash Game: N/A: Not loving either one here in Cash formats. Flip a coin = not a great situation for Cash formats.

GPP: Pudilova (7/10): I like her output, and this is a great weight for output, and output equals points in DFS! Kim (6.5/10: A coin flip makes Kim a Live Dog, and you’ll have to roster a few dogs in order to get those 6 GPP wins. Kim will also be fairly low owned as well, and this is always a nice attribute when your attribute to.

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

Carls John de Tomas

Vs.

Naoki Inoue

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

6

0

Record

10

0

0

0

UFC Record

0

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,300

DK Salary

$8,900

245

Vegas Odds

-290

50%

% Fights to Dec

30%

0

# of UFC Fights

0

Snapshot:

At only 19 years old, Naoki Inoue is one of the UFC’s most promising young stars in the Flyweight division. Standing 5’8” tall, he’ll be the 3rd tallest fighter in the Flyweight division, and he brings a solid muay Thai game into this battle against  against 20 year old Carls John de Tomas. De Tomas has never fought outside of his homeland of the Philippines, and this could prove to be a big deal, and the UFC debut Jitters could be an even bigger factor than what we typically see with debuting fighters. 

This is another tough fight to call, as these are two young up and comers who don’t have much film out there, and who have an unproven MMA game that has not been tested against upper-level competition. Inoue seems to be the superior striker with a much more technically sound approach to his punches and kicks, and this translates nicely in the -270 line that has him as a pretty significant favorite in this battle of diaper dandies. There may be a lot of question marks surrounding both these fighters, but there is one thing we know for sure; neither of these fighters will be hosting an after party at the local club, as they still have a little aging to do before alcohol can be part of their post-fight in-take.

This will be a fight that I’ll have some exposure to, as both these guys are pretty active, and these lighter weight classes are always good fights to target due to the fast-paced nature, and the innate ability for these guys to rack up 100+ DK points with ease. Don’t take this one to the bank, but have some exposure to this fight, as I could see this one being a highly scored affair with both corners contributing.          

 PICK: Inoue, Decision, Unanimous   

Cash Game: N/A: Not enough certainty with either of their games, but may have some exposure to Inoue if I take anyone in this fight.

GPP: Inoue (6.5/10): I think he won’t be owned that high due to people’s lack of knowledge of either of these guys, but you’ll have to be able to

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Russell Doane

Vs.

Kwan Ho Kwak

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

7

Record

9

1

2

4

UFC Record

0

1

1

4

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,600

DK Salary

$8,600

105

Vegas Odds

-125

29%

% Fights to Dec

40%

6

# of UFC Fights

1

Snapshot:

Here’s another fight that the casual fan will have no idea about, and in turn, both their ownership percentages should be pretty low, creating some value for us in GPP’s, but I don’t think that will be the exact situation with Doane. We talked about “Live Dogs” a few fights back, and that’s exactly what we have here with Russell Doane.

9-1 South Korean, Kwan Ho Kwak, will take on 14-7 Russell Doane who hails from America’s Paradise, Hawaii. This will be Doane’s 7th fight in the UFC, and his Octagon record currently stands at 2-4, with his 4 losses coming in his last 4 UFC fights. He was a big underdog in 3 out 4 of those fights (+210 or greater), and was a huge favorite of -470 when he lost to Jerrod Sanders by decision.

Doane will be higher owned than you’d expect a fighter who’s coming off 4 consecutive loses in the UFC, and this is due to his current Vegas odds for victory (+105), and where DK priced him out of the gate ($7,600). There’s some serious value here, as I do feel that Doane is a Live Dog, and you’ll want him in your LU’s when it comes to GPP’s, as he’ll save you some salary, and he has a legit chance at winning.

 

PICK: Doane, Decision, Unanimous             

Cash Game: Doane (7.5/10): Salary saver is always nice, but a victory isn’t a lock.

GPP: Doane (8/10): You got to save salary in GPP’s when you can, and if you can steal a win, take it and be happy!

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Jingliang Li

Vs.

Frank Camacho

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

12

4

Record

20

4

4

2

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,400

DK Salary

$6,800

-470

Vegas Odds

375

38%

% Fights to Dec

8%

6

# of UFC Fights

0

Snapshot:

Li Jingliang has made a name for himself on the Chinese MMA scene, as he has 3 brutal knockouts in his last 4 fights. Li comes in as a -470 favorite as he takes on Frank Camacho who is filling in for Jonathan Meunier on less than 2 weeks notice. This could be a factor, especially with the fact that Camacho had a very questionable gas tank while having a full fight camp, so it’s scary to think about what a 2 week camp has in store for his gas tank. The interesting fact is that Camacho just fought on May 26th and won by submission in the 2nd. I don’t think this one goes into the 2nd round, so the gas tank conversation won’t hold much water when it’s all said and done.

Both of these fighters are very capable of handling themselves on the ground, but when it comes to striking, Li has a distinct advantage, and I think this is where the fight will end - with Camacho sleeping before hitting the canvas. The difficult part with Li is his massive salary of $9,400. He’ll be tough to roster at this level, but I think his upside makes him worth it. I could easily see him rack up 120+ points with a win in the 1st 2 rounds, as this will be a fast paced slugfest that may see some knockdowns before the actual KO takes place. Find a way to roster him in some of your lineups. My projections has Li ranked as #1 on the card from a DFS perspective, so I’ll be getting creative and finding ways to roster him in all formats.

PICK: Li, KO, 1st                              

Cash Game: Li (9/10): Like his odds of winning, but don’t completely count Camacho out.

GPP: Li (8.5/10): Love the high potential for points being scored here, but he’ll be highly owned, and he is not cheap! Camacho (7.5/10): I don’t love his chances of winning, but I don’t think he’ll be highly owned, and stranger things have happened in MMA.

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

Justin Scoggins

Vs.

Yuta Sasaki

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

3

Record

19

4

4

3

UFC Record

2

3

2

3

Record Last 5

2

3

$9,300

DK Salary

$6,900

-500

Vegas Odds

400

36%

% Fights to Dec

39%

7

# of UFC Fights

5

Snapshot:

Oh boy! I love Scoggins’ style for DK points accumulation. He has a very high output, likes to scrap, and isn’t afraid of getting his hands dirty while finding his way towards a stoppage victory. Scoggins has all of the attributes to be a champion some day, but he continues to find himself in difficult positions in fights that he should win easily due to his poor fight IQ. Hopefully this improves as he ages, and the stupid mistakes that cost him victories eventually become a thing of the past, but until then I’m afraid his fight IQ will continue to weigh him down and prevent him from making a trek to the top of the heap.

Scoggins is a -500 favorite, and has a DK salary of $9,300 salary, but I think he’s worth it! $9,300 isn’t the most expensive on the card, but him and Li ($9,400) both have similar upsides and ceilings with their matchups. You most likely can’t afford both Scoggins and Li, but if you can figure out a way to pull it off without completely murdering your team, then by all means, do it. These two are make for DK points accumulation, and as long as they can keep their fight IQ’s intact, and dictate where the fight takes place, then I don’t think they’ll have any issues scoring 120+ points in their respective matches. Not only will these be really fun fights to watch, but they have the potential to be a blueprint to how a fighter should go about being an awesome DraftKings MMA fighter.

PICK: Scoggins, TKO, 2nd   

Cash Game: Scoggins (9/10:) Yup, he isn’t cheap at $9,300, but his ceiling is stupidly high, and he should have no problem winning this one in style.

GPP: Scoggins (8.5/10): He will be highly owned, and he isn’t cheap, and those are the only things stopping him from being a 10/10. Own him if you can afford him.

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Alex Caceres

Vs.

Rolando Dy

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

12

10

Record

8

4

7

8

UFC Record

0

0

2

3

Record Last 5

3

3

$9,100

DK Salary

$7,100

-300

Vegas Odds

250

36%

% Fights to Dec

58%

15

# of UFC Fights

0

Snapshot:

Here’s another fight that I think should be targeted, and is similar to the previous two fights I reviewed. I would place Caceras in the same neighborhood as Scoggins and Li in terms of potential value on this card. He’s also in the same world when it comes to his salary, as he comes in at a cool $9,100, as he takes on Rolando Dy who is taking this fight on about 3 weeks notice. This short notice assignment may prove to be a very difficult one for Dy, as Caceras’ has a high output game that continues to bring the fight to his foe, and pressures them until they break. This short notice fight in combination with Caceras’ style make for a really tough day at the office for Dy.

Caceres is active enough on the feet, and if he gets the fight to the ground, then you’ll be very impressed with his top game that will see him advance positions and rack up a lot of DK points while on the ground. I really like Caceres’ game in this spot, and I think he has the potential to be the highest point scorer on the card, and he’s just a smidge cheaper than Li and Scoggins. If you can roster 2 out of the 3 of these studs, then do it, but you’ll have to get creative and punt a fighter or two in order to fit them in your lineups.

PICK: Caceres, Submission, 2nd                             

Cash Game: Caceres (9.5/10): Love his style here, and his salary isn’t outrageous for his potential upside.

GPP: Caceres (9/10): Tough to roster him with another one of the high-priced studs, but I love his game and scoring potential, oh, and he’s fun to watch too.

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

247

Cyril Asker

Vs.

Walt Harris

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

8

2

Record

9

5

1

1

UFC Record

2

4

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,000

DK Salary

$9,200

240

Vegas Odds

-280

20%

% Fights to Dec

21%

2

# of UFC Fights

6

Snapshot:

This is weird. This is the 4th fight in a row that I really feel the same way about. Walt Harris I would put in the same category as Li, Scoggins, and Caceres - not only scoring potential, but a very similar salary as well ($9,200). Harris’ ceiling is a little lower than the others, as I see him winning with a quick KO in the 1st, and not necessarily racking up the points before ending this one viciously. The 3 others have the chance of getting the fight to the ground, and accumulating points through takedowns, transitions, and eventually a stoppage, and as you know with the new DK scoring system, takedowns and advances can surely rack up the points!

Harris doesn’t have the fast-paced output that the 3 others do, and this will also limit his potential as well, but don’t get me wrong, he is still a 100+ point stud, and I don’t think there is any way that he’ll be denied a vicious KO of Cyril Asker. Get him if you can, but I think I rank him 4th out of these top 4 fighters, but we’re really splitting hairs here because these guys should all be in the 100 - 140 point range when it’s all said and done, and these are great scores, regardless of format!

PICK: Harris, KO, 1st                                   

Cash Game: Harris (9/10): I like the odds of Harris winning, but he isn’t cheap.

GPP: Harris (8.5/10): I basically could copy and paste the 3 previous fighter picks and write-ups, as all 4 of these guys are interchangeable. Get at least 2 in your LU’s if possible.                           

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Takanori Gomi

Vs.

Jon Tuck

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

35

12

Record

10

4

4

7

UFC Record

3

4

1

4

Record Last 5

2

3

$7,400

DK Salary

$8,800

210

Vegas Odds

-250

40%

% Fights to Dec

36%

11

# of UFC Fights

7

Snapshot:

John Tuck takes on the 76 year old Takanori Gomi. Gomi will be allowed to use his walker in the Octagon, and this could pose a problem for Tuck, as those walkers can be hard to get around, especially if Gomi has the tennis balls on the bottom of the legs, allowing him to more easily move around the cage.

In all seriousness, Gomi should not be fighting any more. He’s been KO’ed too many times, and has been in a number of wars that have most likely shortened his lifespan. This seems like a fight where Gomi has a very late “illness”, or “irregular heartbeat” or something, and leaving your LU’s hung out to dry if you rostered either one of these fighters. Proceed with caution.

I do really like Tuck here though, as he is almost bound to win by stoppage within the 1st two rounds, as Gomi is way over the hill when it comes to effective, high-level, MMA fighters. He has lost by KO in the 1st round during his last 3 UFC fights to Jim Miller, Joe Lauzon, and Myles Jury. None of these three fighters are known for their heavy hands and KO power, so this goes to show you where Gomi’s chin currently stands. I don’t see any change to this trend, do lock up Tuck if you can fit him on your rosters.

PICK: Tuck, KO, 1st                         

Cash Game: Tuck (9.5/10): I think that Gomi goes down quickly, and Tuck racks up the points with his manageable $8,800 salary.

GPP: Tuck (9/10): High ceiling, crappy opponent, manageable salary - yup, I like it!

Main Card

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Tarec Saffiedine

Vs.

Rafael dos Anjos

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

16

6

Record

25

9

2

3

UFC Record

14

7

2

3

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,200

DK Salary

$9,000

250

Vegas Odds

-300

68%

% Fights to Dec

53%

5

# of UFC Fights

21

Snapshot:

The first fight of the main card pits Rafael dos Anjos vs Tarec Saffiedine. This is an interesting fight that has two veterans of the UFC going to battle as Welterweights. I think Dos Anjos will likely win this one, but Saffiedine is a crafty veteran who will most likely have good enough defense to make it difficult for Dos Anjos to score a lot of DK points, and this is the main reason I think I’ll be avoiding Dos Anjos for the most part due to this one probably going the distance, and Saffiedine doing a good enough job defensively to not allow Dos Anjos to score the type of points needed to pay off his $9,000 price tag. I’ll have Dos Anjos in some Cash LU’s, but I’ll be avoiding him in GPP’s.

PICK: Dos Anjos, Decision, Unanimous                   

Cash Game: Dos Anjos (7/10): I think he wins, but points will be lower than you want, and he’s pricey.  Saffiedine (6/10): Punt play. Nice opportunity to save some salary here, with an outside chance of winning. If he loses, he may go 3 rounds, which is nice for a punt play.

GPP: N/A

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Dong Hyun Kim

Vs.

Colby Covington

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

22

3

Record

11

1

13

3

UFC Record

6

1

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,700

DK Salary

$8,500

175

Vegas Odds

-210

44%

% Fights to Dec

33%

16

# of UFC Fights

7

Snapshot:

Alright, Covington is probably my favorite play on the card. He is a very good wrestler, has been in the cage with some stiff competition, and has some serious upside when you look at his game. Takedowns and transitions are what score you ridiculous amounts of points in today’s DK world, and I think Covington has almost the perfect game for this.

Kim’s wrestling is nowhere near as good enough to keep Covington from taking him to the ground and controlling where this fight takes place. I also love Covington’s salary at $8,500! He isn’t overpriced, and he has a very high ceiling. It won’t take much for Covington to payoff his salary, so you should be targeting him in all formats. Get him while you can!

PICK: Covington, Decision, Unanimous                                

Cash Game: Covington (10/10): Loving his manageable salary, serious upside, and wrestling based game!

GPP: Covington (9/10): He will be very highly owned (probably highest on the card, or Tuck), and this reduces his GPP value to some degree.

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

240

Andrei Arlovski

Vs.

Marcin Tybura

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

25

14

Record

15

2

14

8

UFC Record

2

1

1

4

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,500

DK Salary

$8,700

210

Vegas Odds

-250

21%

% Fights to Dec

18%

22

# of UFC Fights

3

Snapshot: 

Marcin Tybura brings his 17 pro MMA fights into the cage as he takes on UFC legend, Andre Arlovski and his 39 pro MMA fights. Why do I bring up the number of pro MMA fights? Because Arlovski has been beaten up, and has a highly questionable chin, and actually has been KO’ed 3 times in his last 4 fights, and I foresee that this fight will end in a similar manner.

The tough part is that we are talking about the heavyweight division here, and with these 4 ounce gloves, anything can happen. Arlovski could land a miracle haymaker, and KO Tybura, and if he does, wow, he’ll rack up some points. Arlovski is a nice punt play here, and I may be targeting him as a punt in many of my lineups. I like Tybura’s chance of winning, but I just don’t think he’s worth the risk with his $8,700 price tag. I’d rather roster Arlovski, and fit in some of the other guys I like on the card.

PICK: Tybura, KO, 2nd         

Cash Game: Arlovski (6.5/10): Nice punt play here, and if he lands his one punch, then great!

GPP: Arlovski (7/10): Again, punt play here.

Fight #:

12

5 Rounds

Weight:

135

Holly Holm

Vs.

Bethe Correia

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

10

3

Record

10

2

3

3

UFC Record

4

2

2

3

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,600

DK Salary

$6,600

-620

Vegas Odds

460

38%

% Fights to Dec

75%

6

# of UFC Fights

6

Snapshot: 

With all the other options on the card, it is tough for me to be on board with Holly Holm. She is getting 5 rounds compared to everyone else’s 3 rounds, but there are just so many great options earlier on in the card, so I don’t think you necessarily need to be on Holm here. I think I’ll be avoiding this one in all formats, although I may have Bethe in a lineup or two as a punt, but I’m not loving Holm, and don’t have much confidence in her.

PICK: Holm, Decision, Unanimous                            

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

 

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Colby Covington

$8,500

2

John Tuck

$8,800

3

Walt Harris

$9,200

4

Justin Scoggins

$9,300

5

Russell Doane

$7,600

6

Bethe Correia

$6,600

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Colby Covington

$8,500

2

John Tuck

$8,800

3

Walt Harris

$9,200

4

Li Jingliang

$9,400

5

Tarec Saffiedine

$7,200

6

Bethe Correia

$6,600

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Colby Covington

$8,500

2

John Tuck

$8,800

3

Walt Harris

$9,200

4

Andre Arlovski

$7,500

5

Alex Caceres

$9,100

6

Frank Camacho

$6,800

GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Colby Covington

$8,500

2

John Tuck

$8,800

3

Walt Harris

$9,200

4

Tarec Saffiedine

$7,200

5

Russell Doane

$7,600

6

Marcin Tybura

$8,700