Ford EcoBoost 400

Homestead-Miami Speedway

The final race in the Round of 8 proved to be just as exciting and pulse-pounding as the rest of the playoffs as a whole. When all was said and done, Matt Kenseth pulled off what could be one final win when he passed Chase Elliott with 10 laps to go, using a patented dogleg dive bomb to get the job done. Elliott needed the win to make the championship but couldn’t manage better than another second-place finish. Denny Hamlin, with his finishes in the first two stages of the race, closed the 19-point gap to draw even with Brad Keselowski for a tie for the fourth and final championship spot. However another run-in with Elliott caused him to cut a tie and end his day and chances for making it to Homestead.

The season finale is this weekend down at Homestead-Miami Speedway takes place on a 1.5-mile standard oval. It’s not a tri- or quad-oval but a standard oval with two straightaways and no turn in the middle of the front stretch. The banking on the turns is progressive from 18-20 degrees depending on the groove you’re running. The track opened in 1995 and hosted the top series in 1999 before hosting the championship starting in 2002. Since then, it has been one of the favorite tracks of the drivers for its drivability and multiple grooves.

There are some confusing stats related to Homestead as several drivers have posted +6 or better positional differentials in the last few races and there are multiple grooves that explain those moves. However 89% of eventual winners have started in the top-five starting spots in the grid, which shows a lack of ability to get passed the top-five but an ability to move up to that point. The other interesting part of this is that the typical 1.5-mile track is more of a 1.5-groove ride but this track has a higher eventual winner percentage than almost any other 1.5-mile track on the schedule.

Stages will be present in the race, just like every race previously, however the stage points don’t hold value for the Championship Four. All you have to do to win the title is to finish ahead of the other three competitors, whether you win the race or not. The last two years the winner of the championship has had to win the race because the competition was so close, but it’s not necessary. Martin Truex Jr. is the only one of the four without a MENCS title, but all four have at least one Xfinity title to their credit.

It’s been a fun year with some nice winning streaks and I hope you all have enjoyed the racing. Good luck Sunday and until Daytona, have a great offseason with continued winning from the talented staff at FantasyAlarm.

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Martin Truex Jr.$11,100$28.50Truex has been dominant at this distance all season and how has a fast car once more. He's the chalk pick for sure but with good reason, and not starting P1 puts him in both
Kyle Busch$10,500$27.75Busch is the second driver in the championship four with a fast car this week. He has a win and two top-10s in the last two races here with 42 laps led. Works for both formats
Brad Keselowski$9,900$26.75Keselowski has been trailing behind the other championship drivers in speed thus far but starts P5. He doesn't have a win here yet overall but could sneak in still. GPP works here
Kevin Harvick$9,700$28.00Harvick has a great history here with the best average finish (2.5) without a win. He has eight top-fives in 16 races career-wise and is a chalk pick for both lineups starting P9.
Jimmie Johnson$9,600$23.75JJ won here last year but doesn't have anything on the line this week. His speed has been average at best this week. He has 11 top-10s in 16 career races which makes him a GPP
Kyle Larson$9,500$27.00Larson has the PD in the field over the last two races at +20 to go with two top-five finishes. He also leads the field in laps led with 134. However his speed hasn't been great. GPP
Chase Elliott$9,400$27.25Elliott has been consistently in the top-10 all playoffs long, save for Martinsville, but hasn't shown that speed this week. His so-so history here makes him a better GPP play Sunday
Matt Kenseth$9,100$26.50Kenseth has two top-10s and a healthy +6 PD in the last two races. He also has a win and nine top-10s in 17 races here. His final race sees him start P4 and fits a GPP lineup
Denny Hamlin$8,900$27.25Denny has the pole and ran P5, P1, & P3 in the practices. That kind of speed is promising, but he has been on the pole before and hasn't led a lap. That record has him a GPP play
Kurt Busch$8,300$21.00A healthy +5 PD and a top-10 in the last two is solid and so is his one win and six top-10s in 16 races. He's run in the top-10 all week at practice and works as a GPP or low-tier cash
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$7,800$14.50Jr. is in his final race this Sunday and has shown top-10 speed most of practice. He qualified P24 but starts P40 due to an engine swap. His speed and PD upside makes a cash play
Jamie McMurray$7,700$25.75McMurray has a nice +9 PD and a top-five, top-10, and two top-20s in the last two races. His speed has been decent this week and with the history here, he's worth a GPP or cash
Danica Patrick$6,500$12.50Patrick has finsihed between P19 and P24 the last two races with a +11 PD. Her announcment Friday means she has just one race left in the MENCS. A GPP play is where she fits
Michael McDowell$5,800$9.00McDowell has shown top-10 speed in practice and starts P23 which provides a high-upside to his selection. He also has a top-10 in the last two races, nice at this price point too
Cole Whitt$4,900$5.00Whitt ran from P40 to P28 in last year's race and is capable of doing that again this year. He's run top-30 in practice but qualified P33. Cash or GPP plays work for him here well

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Martin Truex Jr.$11,100
Kyle Busch$10,500
Kevin Harvick$9,700
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$7,800
Michael McDowell$5,800
Cole Whitt$4,900
  
Total$49,800

Pivot: Jamie McMurray ($7,700) in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($7,800)

Draft Kings GPP 
Brad Keselowski$9,900
Kyle Larson$9,500
Denny Hamlin$8,900
Kurt Busch$8,300
A.J. Allmendinger$6,300
Michael McDowell$5,800
  
Total$48,700

 

Draft Kings GPP #2 
Martin Truex Jr.$11,100
Kevin Harvick$9,700
Chase Elliott$9,400
Matt Kenseth$9,100
Michael McDowell$5,800
Cole Whitt$4,900
  
Total$50,000

 

NASCAR Live 
Martin Truex Jr.$28.75
Kyle Busch$27.75
Jimmie Johnson$23.75
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$14.50
Cole Whitt$5.00
Bonus WinnerMartin Truex Jr.
Bonus ManufacturerToyota
  
Total$99.75

 

Streak To The FinishKevin Harvick