Ford EcoBoost 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway
The final race in the Round of 8 proved to be just as exciting and pulse-pounding as the rest of the playoffs as a whole. When all was said and done, Matt Kenseth pulled off what could be one final win when he passed Chase Elliott with 10 laps to go, using a patented dogleg dive bomb to get the job done. Elliott needed the win to make the championship but couldn’t manage better than another second-place finish. Denny Hamlin, with his finishes in the first two stages of the race, closed the 19-point gap to draw even with Brad Keselowski for a tie for the fourth and final championship spot. However another run-in with Elliott caused him to cut a tie and end his day and chances for making it to Homestead.
The season finale is this weekend down at Homestead-Miami Speedway takes place on a 1.5-mile standard oval. It’s not a tri- or quad-oval but a standard oval with two straightaways and no turn in the middle of the front stretch. The banking on the turns is progressive from 18-20 degrees depending on the groove you’re running. The track opened in 1995 and hosted the top series in 1999 before hosting the championship starting in 2002. Since then, it has been one of the favorite tracks of the drivers for its drivability and multiple grooves.
There are some confusing stats related to Homestead as several drivers have posted +6 or better positional differentials in the last few races and there are multiple grooves that explain those moves. However 89% of eventual winners have started in the top-five starting spots in the grid, which shows a lack of ability to get passed the top-five but an ability to move up to that point. The other interesting part of this is that the typical 1.5-mile track is more of a 1.5-groove ride but this track has a higher eventual winner percentage than almost any other 1.5-mile track on the schedule.
Stages will be present in the race, just like every race previously, however the stage points don’t hold value for the Championship Four. All you have to do to win the title is to finish ahead of the other three competitors, whether you win the race or not. The last two years the winner of the championship has had to win the race because the competition was so close, but it’s not necessary. Martin Truex Jr. is the only one of the four without a MENCS title, but all four have at least one Xfinity title to their credit.
It’s been a fun year with some nice winning streaks and I hope you all have enjoyed the racing. Good luck Sunday and until Daytona, have a great offseason with continued winning from the talented staff at FantasyAlarm.
DFS Playbook
Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
Martin Truex Jr. | $11,100 | $28.50 | Truex has been dominant at this distance all season and how has a fast car once more. He's the chalk pick for sure but with good reason, and not starting P1 puts him in both |
Kyle Busch | $10,500 | $27.75 | Busch is the second driver in the championship four with a fast car this week. He has a win and two top-10s in the last two races here with 42 laps led. Works for both formats |
Brad Keselowski | $9,900 | $26.75 | Keselowski has been trailing behind the other championship drivers in speed thus far but starts P5. He doesn't have a win here yet overall but could sneak in still. GPP works here |
Kevin Harvick | $9,700 | $28.00 | Harvick has a great history here with the best average finish (2.5) without a win. He has eight top-fives in 16 races career-wise and is a chalk pick for both lineups starting P9. |
Jimmie Johnson | $9,600 | $23.75 | JJ won here last year but doesn't have anything on the line this week. His speed has been average at best this week. He has 11 top-10s in 16 career races which makes him a GPP |
Kyle Larson | $9,500 | $27.00 | Larson has the PD in the field over the last two races at +20 to go with two top-five finishes. He also leads the field in laps led with 134. However his speed hasn't been great. GPP |
Chase Elliott | $9,400 | $27.25 | Elliott has been consistently in the top-10 all playoffs long, save for Martinsville, but hasn't shown that speed this week. His so-so history here makes him a better GPP play Sunday |
Matt Kenseth | $9,100 | $26.50 | Kenseth has two top-10s and a healthy +6 PD in the last two races. He also has a win and nine top-10s in 17 races here. His final race sees him start P4 and fits a GPP lineup |
Denny Hamlin | $8,900 | $27.25 | Denny has the pole and ran P5, P1, & P3 in the practices. That kind of speed is promising, but he has been on the pole before and hasn't led a lap. That record has him a GPP play |
Kurt Busch | $8,300 | $21.00 | A healthy +5 PD and a top-10 in the last two is solid and so is his one win and six top-10s in 16 races. He's run in the top-10 all week at practice and works as a GPP or low-tier cash |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $7,800 | $14.50 | Jr. is in his final race this Sunday and has shown top-10 speed most of practice. He qualified P24 but starts P40 due to an engine swap. His speed and PD upside makes a cash play |
Jamie McMurray | $7,700 | $25.75 | McMurray has a nice +9 PD and a top-five, top-10, and two top-20s in the last two races. His speed has been decent this week and with the history here, he's worth a GPP or cash |
Danica Patrick | $6,500 | $12.50 | Patrick has finsihed between P19 and P24 the last two races with a +11 PD. Her announcment Friday means she has just one race left in the MENCS. A GPP play is where she fits |
Michael McDowell | $5,800 | $9.00 | McDowell has shown top-10 speed in practice and starts P23 which provides a high-upside to his selection. He also has a top-10 in the last two races, nice at this price point too |
Cole Whitt | $4,900 | $5.00 | Whitt ran from P40 to P28 in last year's race and is capable of doing that again this year. He's run top-30 in practice but qualified P33. Cash or GPP plays work for him here well |
Optimal Lineups
Draft Kings Cash | |
Martin Truex Jr. | $11,100 |
Kyle Busch | $10,500 |
Kevin Harvick | $9,700 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $7,800 |
Michael McDowell | $5,800 |
Cole Whitt | $4,900 |
Total | $49,800 |
Pivot: Jamie McMurray ($7,700) in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($7,800)
Draft Kings GPP | |
Brad Keselowski | $9,900 |
Kyle Larson | $9,500 |
Denny Hamlin | $8,900 |
Kurt Busch | $8,300 |
A.J. Allmendinger | $6,300 |
Michael McDowell | $5,800 |
Total | $48,700 |
Draft Kings GPP #2 | |
Martin Truex Jr. | $11,100 |
Kevin Harvick | $9,700 |
Chase Elliott | $9,400 |
Matt Kenseth | $9,100 |
Michael McDowell | $5,800 |
Cole Whitt | $4,900 |
Total | $50,000 |
NASCAR Live | |
Martin Truex Jr. | $28.75 |
Kyle Busch | $27.75 |
Jimmie Johnson | $23.75 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $14.50 |
Cole Whitt | $5.00 |
Bonus Winner | Martin Truex Jr. |
Bonus Manufacturer | Toyota |
Total | $99.75 |
Streak To The Finish | Kevin Harvick |