The Chase starts this week. After 26 races in 28 weeks, it’s time for the NASCAR playoffs. 16 drivers will attempt to out last their competitors and be named Champion for the 2017. The 10-race run starts with Chicagoland this Sunday in the Tales of the Turtles 400. Chicago is a 1.5-mile track with standard 18-degree banking in the turns and 11 through the Tri-Oval. It is only raced on once a year, and typically as the first race in the Chase, though that will change next year. Though it’s one of the newest tracks on the schedule, having opened in 2001, the history here says the same thing: one driver leads 100+ laps and then the rest are split. Clearly the Chase is about the 16 drivers trying to move on in the pursuit of a championship, but that doesn’t mean other drivers should be ignored in DFS prepeartion.
Track Data
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Denny Hamlin | 16 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 110.3 | 12.5 | 2.75 | 1.38 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 71 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 118.6 | -2 | 17.75 | 8.88 |
Brad Keselowski | 2.5 | 6.5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 103.2 | -4 | 1.75 | 0.88 |
Joey Logano | 5.5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 111 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.25 |
Matt Kenseth | 9.5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 90.3 | 2.5 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
Kurt Busch | 10.5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 102.5 | 2.5 | 9.25 | 4.63 |
Ryan Newman | 12 | 11.5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 85.7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Chase Elliott | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 129.1 | 11 | 18.75 | 18.75 |
Ryan Blaney | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 91.9 | 18 | 2 | 2.00 |
Kyle Busch | 4 | 8.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 142 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 118 | -4.5 | 35.5 | 17.75 |
Kyle Larson | 14 | 12.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 87.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.25 |
Kasey Kahne | 13.5 | 15.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 82 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Aric Almirola | 23.5 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 65.2 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Jimmie Johnson | 9.5 | 11.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 118 | 0 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 110.5 | -2 | 29.5 | 14.75 |
Jamie McMurray | 14.5 | 13.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 81.2 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
Kevin Harvick | 2.5 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 42 | 0 | 83.5 | -28.5 | 2.5 | 1.25 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 19 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 92.7 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Paul Menard | 21 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 21 | 0 | 66.9 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Clint Bowyer | 27 | 20.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 22 | 0 | 62.2 | 6.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 25 | 21.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 25 | 0 | 60.7 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
David Ragan | 30 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 0 | 56.5 | 5 | 0 | 0.00 |
A.J. Allmendinger | 18 | 26.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 36 | 0 | 56.2 | -8.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Austin Dillon | 10 | 28.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 0 | 79.6 | -18.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Danica Patrick | 25 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 26 | 0 | 60.7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Trevor Bayne | 25 | 25.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 28 | 0 | 57.4 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ty Dillon | 33 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 47.3 | 6 | 0 | 0.00 |
Landon Cassill | 33.5 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 29 | 0 | 47.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Chris Buescher | 13 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 56.3 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 |
Brett Moffitt | 38 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 39.2 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 |
David Gilliland | 35 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 |
Cole Whitt | 34.5 | 32.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 36 | 0 | 38.3 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 37 | 34.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 39 | 0 | 35.8 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Michael McDowell | 30 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 31.6 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Reed Sorenson | 40.5 | 39.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 40 | 0 | 26.3 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
Timmy Hill | 43 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 24.2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Daniel Suarez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Erik Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ray Black Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Corey LaJoie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Gray Gaulding | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top-15 Drivers at Chicagoland Speedway Historically
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Kevin Harvick | 16.3 | 12.25 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 373 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 4.05 | 93.25 | 5.83 |
Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 9.63 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 151 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 4.17 | 37.75 | 4.72 |
Ryan Newman | 10.5 | 14.13 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1 | -3.63 | 45.5 | 3.03 |
Matt Kenseth | 14.9 | 11.13 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 438 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3.77 | 109.5 | 6.84 |
Kyle Busch | 12 | 11.08 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 429 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 0.92 | 107.25 | 8.94 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 16.9 | 15.27 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 123 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 1.63 | 30.75 | 2.05 |
Denny Hamlin | 14.6 | 16.09 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 1 | -1.49 | 3 | 0.27 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 15.3 | 14.91 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 99 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 0.39 | 24.75 | 2.25 |
Jimmie Johnson | 7.9 | 9.47 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 695 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 | -1.57 | 173.75 | 11.58 |
Kurt Busch | 19.1 | 15.44 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 104 | 0 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 3.66 | 26 | 1.63 |
Kasey Kahne | 12.5 | 17.46 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 2 | -4.96 | 3 | 0.23 |
Joey Logano | 12.8 | 13.63 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1 | -0.83 | 8.5 | 1.06 |
Clint Bowyer | 17.2 | 14.55 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 2.65 | 2 | 0.18 |
Jamie McMurray | 20.3 | 20.14 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 108 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 1 | 0.16 | 27 | 1.93 |
Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 9.33 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 3.37 | 5.5 | 1.83 |
Top-15 Drivers at 1.5-mile Tracks (Since February 2015)
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Jimmie Johnson | 14.5 | 13.58 | 31 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 24 | 771 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 100.4 | 0.92 | 192.75 | 6.22 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 7.4 | 8.13 | 31 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 30 | 1,947 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 116.1 | -0.73 | 486.75 | 15.70 |
Kyle Busch | 9.7 | 8.15 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 25 | 742 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 108.1 | 1.55 | 185.5 | 6.87 |
Brad Keselowski | 6.4 | 10.74 | 31 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27 | 1,042 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 4 | 102.6 | -4.34 | 260.5 | 8.40 |
Joey Logano | 6.5 | 11.16 | 31 | 2 | 17 | 22 | 25 | 908 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 103.6 | -4.66 | 227 | 7.32 |
Kevin Harvick | 6.9 | 9.03 | 31 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 28 | 1,651 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 115.1 | -2.13 | 412.75 | 13.31 |
Denny Hamlin | 9.1 | 14.26 | 31 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 23 | 359 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 4 | 92.8 | -5.16 | 89.75 | 2.90 |
Austin Dillon | 16.3 | 19.1 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 77.9 | -2.8 | 3.5 | 0.11 |
Matt Kenseth | 10.8 | 11.13 | 30 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 477 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 2 | 98.1 | -0.33 | 119.25 | 3.98 |
Kyle Larson | 16.5 | 16.71 | 31 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 321 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 3 | 90.2 | -0.21 | 80.25 | 2.59 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 17.5 | 12.84 | 25 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 88.8 | 4.66 | 2.5 | 0.10 |
Kurt Busch | 9.9 | 10.97 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 342 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 2 | 94.6 | -1.07 | 85.5 | 2.95 |
Chase Elliott | 13.4 | 16.57 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 186 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 4 | 90.1 | -3.17 | 46.5 | 2.21 |
Ryan Newman | 13.9 | 14.52 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 2 | 81.5 | -0.62 | 7.25 | 0.23 |
Kasey Kahne | 18.8 | 17.68 | 31 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 4 | 77.7 | 1.12 | 2 | 0.06 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Denny Hamlin: Denny made the Chase despite his latest win, Darlington, was encumbered, thanks to a win at New Hampshire. He has the best average finish in the field over the last two races, 3.5, with a win coming in 2015 after starting in 29th place. His 11 laps led aren’t a great total but his positional differential of +12.5 is the best among drivers with two races here recently. At around the same price he’s been for the last several races, he represents a solid play in either format.
Martin Truex Jr.: Truex is the defending champ here and has been dominant at 1.5-mile tracks the last few seasons. He has the second-best driver rating here in the last two races at 118.6 but has only secured one top-10 finish. Truex has led 99 total laps at Chicagoland in 11 races, 71 of those in the last two races. He is the most-expensive driver again this week, though with good reason, and should have another car to beat come Sunday afternoon.
Kyle Busch: Chicago is another track at which Kyle is the laps led leader with 142 in the last races. Unfortunately for Rowdy, he, like at other tracks, doesn’t have a win (recently) despite driving up front so often. In the 12 career races here, Busch has a win, four top-fives, and seven top-10s and 429 laps led. He is the second-most expensive driver making it fairly hard to get both he and Truex into one lineup, but it will all come down to practice and qualifying to see if it’s worth it.
Ryan Blaney: Blaney has flown under the radar a bit since winning at Pocono earlier in the year, except for the news that he will be headed to Penske next season. The still Wood Brothers driver has raced here once in the last two years and managed to drive up to a P4 finish from a P22 starting spot in that race, and has a runner-up finish in two Xfinity series races at Chicago. Blaney is just outside the top-tier price range but still fits in a GPP more than cash given his up and down performances.
Chase Elliott: Chase still managed to sneak into the Chase despite not having a win on the season, or in his career to this point. Last year’s race at Chicagoland saw the 24-car out front for 75 laps before ultimately finishing third. His Xfinity series experience at the track is only so-so with two 14th-place finishes and one lap led in two races here. Overall this distance has been good to Elliott in the last few years with 11 top-10s in 21 races and 186 laps led.