Federated Auto Parts 400

Richmond Raceway

Last week’s Bonjangles’ Southern 500 saw some intense racing down the stretch and some inopportune incidents happen. Just 18 laps into the race, Clint Bowyer suffered a blown engine and his night came to an end after a promising showing in practice. On lap 313, Denny Hamlin missed the entry to pit lane after going too fast to make it in time, and gave up 20 seconds to then-leader Martin Truex Jr. He stalked him over the last 50+ laps of the race and with two laps to go, he caught him for the lead. Overall it was Hamlin’s second win in the event, though it turned out to be ruled an encumbered finish and thus won’t count towards his playoff standing. He and Dale Earnhardt Jr. will both be with interim Crew Chiefs for the Richmond race due to post-race inspection penalties.

Travel up I-95 about 4.5 hours and you have made the trip from “The Lady in Black” to “America’s Premier Short Track.” Just north of downtown Richmond is where the .75-mile Tri-Oval layout of Richmond Raceway sits as it plays host to it’s second race of the year and the regular season finale. It is qualified as a short track, thanks to it being under a mile per trip around, but it is more in the shape of standard tracks than the other short tracks, in Bristol and Martinsville. The banking at Richmond is more similar to what you would see at a bigger track, 14 degrees in all four turns and eight on the front stretch, two on the back.

The spring and fall races here have different characteristics during the races that become evident when looking at the past data. First off, the average start of the winner for each race is 8.5 in the last six spring races and 6.83 in the fall. Two of the last six fall races have seen one driver lead 300+ laps and in two others, two drivers led 150+ laps. The spring races have the laps leaders more spread out than that. If you listen to driver interviews during practice, they all say they expect the evening start time to lead to more of a single groove track than they have at Richmond in the spring race. Overall, the eventual winner at the track has come from the top-five starting spots 85% of the time and six drivers have at +6.0 positional differential in the last five races, including three Spring races.

Last but not least is this: expect the track to change in terms of speed and character from what you saw at practice. The practice and qualifying sessions were all run during the day, and thus the track temps will be different, as will the air temps. Those two changes can have drastic effects on the cars, just harken back to the previous races that have started during daylight and finished under the lights, cars were different in each half of the race.

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Kyle Busch$10,700$28.25Kyle is the winningest driver at the track, has the most top-fives (15), and third most laps led (1,091). He has been so-so this week speed-wise but his history warrants a play in GPP lineups
Kevin Harvick$10,500$27.75Harvick has been consistent In the last five races with four top-fives including a runner-up. He's run P9 and P31 in practice but three wins and 21 top-10s in 33 races say play him in GPP.
Martin Truex Jr.$10,400$28.00Truex clinched the regular season title last week but has shown up with speed again this week. He has four top-10s and 193 laps led in the last five races. A P1 and P4 in practice say cash play
Kyle Larson$10,200$27.25Larson hasn't had the greatest run at Richmond in the last five races, but does have a runner-up finish here. He ran in the top-five at practice and starts P5 on Saturday, offering laps led upside
Denny Hamlin$10,000$27.50Hamlin has three wins and nine top-fives in 22 career races with 1,691. He won last week before the inspecition and has something to prove. Hamlin has shown speed and works in both
Brad Keselowski$9,800$26.00Keselowski has two top-fives and three top-10s in the last five races here with 125 laps led and ran P5 and P7 in practice. He will start P15 and offers top-five upside and a chance to win
Joey Logano$9,200$23.25Logano won the spring race after finishing top-six or better in every race before it. The win didn't count but he's got top-three speed again. He has the best average finish in the last five races
Matt Kenseth$9,000$27.25Kenseth is on the pole for Saturday's race and ran the fastest in practice one. He has had a history of moving backwards in the last five but has a win, from the pole. Laps led is what he brings
Erik Jones$8,300$23.50Jones has raced here just once in MENCS but has three top-fives in four races in the Xfinity series here. He has shown good speed at practice and hopes to keeps his streak of top-fives going
Kurt Busch$8,000$20.00Busch has a win here in the last five races and four top-10s in that span. He has been quitely doing well the last several races and has shown top-five speed at practice. Good value in both
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$7,800$13.75Jr. has three career wins here, though none in the fall race and has three top-20s in the last four races. Ran P6 in the first practice but has been slower since. He represents a GPP-only option
Daniel Suarez$7,600$23.00Suarez finished 12th here in the spring race and has three top-10s in five Xfinity races. He starts P16 but has run inside the top-10 in practice. Can be used in either, though better in GPP
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$7,000$19.25Stenhouse has been one of the most consistent drivers this week in practice running P6 and P10, starting P8. He has a top-five here in the last five and three at the last 16 short track races
David Ragan$5,500$7.50Ragan is a budget-play, like usual, but with unusual speed. He ran P21 and P14 but will start 29th, offering big time upside in positional differential this week. He has two top-20s at Richmond
Landon Cassill$5,200$5.00Cassill is cheaper than he usually is, but offers better upside. He ran 18th and 20th in practice and will start 30th in the race. It's hard to pass up that kind of PD upside for this price tag in both

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Martin Truex Jr.$10,400
Kyle Larson$10,200
Brad Keselowski$9,800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$7,000
David Ragan$5,500
Landon Cassill$5,200
  
Total$48,100

 

Draft Kings GPP 
Kyle Busch$10,700
Denny Hamlin$10,000
Joey Logano$9,200
Matt Kenseth$9,000
David Ragan$5,500
Landon Cassill$5,200
  
Total$49,600

 

Draft Kings GPP #2 
Kevin Harvick$10,500
Kyle Larson$10,200
Matt Kenseth$9,000
Daniel Suarez$7,600
David Ragan$5,500
Landon Cassill$5,200
  
Total$48,000

 

NASCAR Live 
Kevin Harvick$27.75
Kyle Larson$27.25
Matt Kenseth$27.25
David Ragan$7.50
Landon Cassill$5.00
Bonus WinnerKyle Busch
Bonus ManufacturerToyota
  
Total$94.75

 

Streak To The FinishKevin Harvick