We are back after the week hiatus, the last one of the season, and it’s not an easy task this week. Darlington looms. It’s also known as “The Lady in Black” and “The Track Too Tough to Tame.” What makes it so tough? It’s a combination of the track distance, 1.366 miles, and the overall shape of the oval. One end is much narrower than the other due to the proximity of a pond and thus there are two different banking angles involved as well.

I have included the recent track data for 1.5-mile tracks, though those should be looked at last since this track is far more unique than any other one that would be included in that data set.

Track Data

 Avg.Avg.     Laps  HighLow Avg.DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Martin Truex Jr.7.5521122280190116.32.573.50
Kevin Harvick23.5202222580250132.3-1.564.532.25
Denny Hamlin6.53.520222700340111.5317.58.75
Joey Logano4.54.520222290450112.807.253.63
Brad Keselowski1.55.5201222431290127.9-460.7530.38
Kyle Larson166.5201224803100104.19.5126.00
Ryan Newman18.510.5200129081308382.251.13
Kyle Busch892001240711094.6-110.50
Kasey Kahne16.59.5200122071208370.50.25
Matt Kenseth1213.520011100621091.3-1.52.51.25
Kurt Busch3202001170634193.1-171.750.88
Dale Earnhardt Jr.268100110088091.61800.00
Chase Elliott16.525.520011001041171.7-900.00
Jamie McMurray16.514.520002001415082.8200.00
Austin Dillon20.51720001001222071.23.500.00
Chris Buescher311710001001717064.71400.00
Clint Bowyer27.519.520001001722060.6800.00
Paul Menard182120001001626064.5-300.00
Aric Almirola18.521.520001001132169.1-300.00
Ryan Blaney14.521.520001001330071.7-700.00
Landon Cassill302520001002030050.5500.00
Jimmie Johnson142620001001933078.6-1200.00
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.152820001001838063.4-1300.00
A.J. Allmendinger27.52320000002323055.44.500.00
Matt DiBenedetto3025.520000002526047.74.500.00
Michael McDowell302710000002727042.1300.00
David Ragan26.530.520000002140158.2-400.00
Reed Sorenson393110000003131030.7800.00
Danica Patrick27.53320000002442146-5.500.00
Trevor Bayne18.537.520000003540145.7-1900.00
Jeffrey Earnhardt383810000003838124.7000.00
Cole Whitt36.54020000003743226.3-3.500.00
Daniel Suarez0000000000000000.00
Ty Dillion0000000000000000.00
Erik Jones0000000000000000.00
Corey LaJoie0000000000000000.00
Derrike Cope0000000000000000.00
B.J. McLeod0000000000000000.00
Gray Gaulding0000000000000000.00
Carl Long0000000000000000.00

Top-15 Drivers at Darlington Raceway Historically

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFPts.Pts.Pts./race
Jimmie Johnson12.810.3918391215551013612.41137.757.65
Kevin Harvick14.915.65201691555911401-0.75139.756.99
Denny Hamlin9.56.271116911427011903.23106.759.70
Matt Kenseth20.315.8323131115193113714.4748.252.10
Kyle Busch14.712.83121279592013701.8714812.33
Martin Truex Jr.18.411.641112510126012706.7631.52.86
Ryan Newman9.811.941807121433412371-2.1483.54.64
Dale Earnhardt Jr.17.51421041017176024013.5442.10
Jamie McMurray14.515.88160351116312421-1.3840.752.55
Kasey Kahne10.215.14140351035343371-4.9488.256.30
Kurt Busch11.518.15200261225922392-6.6564.753.24
Brad Keselowski12.412.1380247247123200.2761.757.72
Joey Logano12.118.38802448504351-6.2821.252.66
Derrike Cope21.824.2425023110044310-2.4400.00
Kyle Larson16.373013348031009.3124.00

Top-15 Drivers on 1.5-mile Tracks (since Feb. 2015)

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow  DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Jimmie Johnson14.313.63308131523771014131010.67192.756.43
Martin Truex Jr.7.68.133061121291,87121361115.8-0.53467.7515.59
Kyle Busch108.3826413182473611331107.81.621847.08
Brad Keselowski6.410.63031124261,03941394102.8-4.2259.758.66
Joey Logano6.410.9330217222490821403104.3-4.532277.57
Kevin Harvick7.19.033021525271,62951422115.3-1.93407.2513.58
Denny Hamlin9.114.73011016222351141491.3-5.658.751.96
Austin Dillon16.419.63012519141143377.3-3.23.50.12
Matt Kenseth10.811.31290819254773242298-0.51119.254.11
Dale Earnhardt Jr.17.312.4624081219100240089.54.842.50.10
Kyle Larson1716.8300812181970237389.50.249.251.64
Chase Elliott13.116.85200611131860341490.4-3.7546.52.33
Kurt Busch1011.25280519253353334294.1-1.2583.752.99
Ryan Newman13.814.7730041223290340281.4-0.977.250.24
Kasey Kahne18.717.473003102180343478.11.2320.07

Drivers to watch this week:

Jimmie Johnson: J.J. comes into the Southern 500 needing to find his footing before the Chase gets underway in two weeks’ time. He has three career wins here in 18 races with nine top-fives, and 12 top-10s, which are all at the top of the list. He is third in laps led with 551 over that span. The last two years here, however, haven’t been great for him with a 26th-place average finish and only one top-20. His $9,100 price tag this week opens makes him intriguing, but he will have to buck the recent trend to make it pay off.

Denny Hamlin: Denny is tied for the best average finish here over the last two races with a P3 and P4 respectively, to go with 70 laps led. He is, however, not just on a two-year hot streak. Hamlin has the best average finish here for anyone with more than 10 career races at 6.27 in 11 runs. He also has a win, six top-fives, and nine top-10s in those 11 races. He has led a total of 427 laps here, which places him fourth in that tally. Denny is the fourth-most expensive driver this week, but there is good reason behind it given his record at the track.

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex won the Southern 500 last season while leading 28 laps. He comes in as the most expensive driver this week at $10,700 due to that, and the run he’s been on once again this season. In 11 career races here, he is third in average finish at 11.64 (again for drivers with double-digit races run) and has five top-10s to go along with the one win. He should once again find his way to the front of the pack, as you would hope at that price point.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick has arguably been the most dominant driver at Darlington the last two years, despite not having a win. He finished runner-up to Truex last year but has the best average finish, at 3.5, and the most laps led, 258, and the highest driver rating at 132.3 in that span. Over his 20-race career here, he has a win, six top-fives, nine top-10s, and the second-most laps led at 559. Harvick follows Denny in salary but has a slightly better past here to make it worth saving the $200 between the two, if so inclined.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Jr. is quickly running out of time to make the Chase in his final season, but luckily for him two of his good tracks are coming up. He has only run one race here in the last two years, since he missed last year’s with the concussion, but that race was a great one. He went from P26 at the start to a P8 finish, giving him artificially the best positional differential in the field. While he is winless in his 21-race career here, he does have four top-fives, and 10 top-10s with 176 laps led. He is a long shot, given the way the season has gone for him, but if he shows what he did two years ago, it could be a very good night.

Daniel Suarez: Usually there are just five drivers in this section, but this week I’ve made a special exemption. Typically rookies, or young drivers, don’t do well here due to the trickiness of the layout, but Suarez could be different. He has raced twice here before in the Xfinity series and done well both times. Suarez has finished third both times and led 14 laps between the two races. He and the 19-car team have been putting it together recently and are coming back to a track that his predecessor did well at. He is more of a GPP play with his lack of experience in a MENCS car, but a good history certainly puts him in the conversation.