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Bristol Motor Speedway

The Pure Michigan 400 was a pretty clean race all the way through, with only two incidents happening all race. Kasey Kahne and Daniel Suarez were involved in a mid-race accident before Paul Menard and Michael McDowell got together to send the race into overtime. It was in the overtime laps that sealed the deal for the third time in a row for the number-42 Chevy of Kyle Larson. He was able to shot the gap and make it three-wide into turn one where he simply outran Martin Truex Jr. and Erik Jones to the lead and held on for the final two laps. Now that Michigan has come and gone, there are just three races left before the Chase begins at Chicagoland Speedway.

The Last Great Coloseum is the home to this Saturday’s race for the penultimate short track race before the Chase starts. Bristol Motor Speedway is the shortest track on the schedule at just .533 miles per lap.  That however doesn’t mean the speed is terribly slow, qualifying speeds were near 130 mph, since the entire track is banked between 22 and 24 degrees. Short tracks provide some very good excitement as drivers try to navigate the tight spaces and quarters while outrunning the competition to the line, however that can also lead to numerous crashes as Bristol averages nine, non-stage, cautions a race historically.

Speaking of historical stats, 90% of winners here have started from the top-five starting spaces in the grid, which is a bit lower than you might think. With the speeds and banking increased here, it allows for multiple grooves to race on and pass your fellow drivers. So paying attention to those who can move through the field here is that much more important, because those who have issues moving up should be devalued here. Bristol has also produced five different winners from four different teams and involving all three manufacturers in the last five races, meaning it truly is up in the air this week, especially with just three spots left open in the Chase currently.  One last thing to keep in mind is this: In all but one of the last six August races here, two drivers have led more than 110 laps, in the other one only one driver led in the triple-digits.

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Kyle Busch$10,800$28.00Busch is the most expensive driver this week, but hasn't raced like it recently. He has three DNFs in his last four races here but has still led the most laps. He ran P2 in practice at starts P18.
Martin Truex Jr.$10,700$28.00Truex jr. has just one top-10 in his last five races here and two top-20s despite leading 116 laps. He has a near top-10 car this week at practice but should be considered a GPP play Saturday
Kyle Larson$10,500$27.75Larson is fresh off win at Michigan but is another top-driver with just two top-10s in the last five races. He will start P2 and ran that in the second practice as well. Laps led leads to a cash play
Matt Kenseth$9,400$27.00Kenseth is a the most consistent driver in the field career-wise but has faltered of late. He needs a win to make the Chase in a few weeks at starts P3. He is a GPP play on Saturday still
Jimmie Johnson$9,300$24.75JJ has a win, three top-fives, and four top-10s in the last five races here with 81 laps led. He will start P21 Saturday but ran a P10 in the first practice. He is a GPP due to a P22 also in practice
Joey Logano$9,000$23.75Logano is one of only three drivers with four top-10s in the last five races and is third in laps led with 290 over that span. He is down to the wire for a win, but will need to find speed. GPP only
Ryan Blaney$8,900$17.25Blaney has the fastest average practice finishes this week with a P4 and P1 respectively. He starts 10th but has a sketchy history here of late. The speed is good the history isn't. GPP only
Clint Bowyer$8,800$25.00Bowyer is on the bubble for the Chase but has done well here with three top-10s and two top-fives to go with the best PD in the field. He has shown top-10 speed and starts P9. Both work
Erik Jones$8,700$22.50Jones is the pole sitter which is a great spot to be in on a short track. However he has run here just once in MENCS but has two wins and three top-fives in four Xfinity races. I love a cash play
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$7,700$18.75Stenhouse owns the second best PD mark in the field this week along with three top-10s in five races. He has shown good speed this week and should fit in a cash game lineup nicely Saturday
Austin Dillon$7,500$22.00Dillon has a top-five and two top-10s at Bristol in the last five races. He ran P20 and P16 respectively in practice and qualified 16th, right around is average starting spot. He is a GPP play here
Ryan Newman$7,200$22.25Newman has a top-five and three top-10s in the last five races. He ran 15th and third in practice and will start 13th in the race. He also has 16 top-10s in 31 career races. Cash or GPP work
Ty Dillon$6,800$17.00Ty has finished 15th and 25th in the two MENCS races he's run here with a +9 PD in the process. In Xfinity he has four top-10s in five races at Bristol and should be the budget play for either
Matt DiBenedetto$5,800$5.00DiBenedetto is a guy I haven't talked about at all this season but he has a top-10 and three top-20s in the last five races here, including a P6. His +9.6 PD is amongst the best in the field too
Corey Lajoie$4,600$5.00LaJoie is a bottom-feeder salary-wise but in his only here at the MENCS level he moved from 35th to 24th and went from 20th to 10th in his lone Xfinity race too. That PD from him is big value

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Kyle Larson$10,500
Clint Bowyer$8,800
Erik Jones$8,700
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$7,700
Ryan Newman$7,200
Ty Dillon$6,800
  
Total$49,700

The cash game lineup this week is made from some of the most consistent drivers in the field over the past few years, and a driver looking to change his fortunes. Kyle Larson hasn’t exactly comported himself well here lately but is showing top-end speed in practice and always seems to be in the discussion for laps led leader. Clint Bowyer, Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Ryan Newman follow Larson and provide depth in consistency to the lineup. Bowyer and Stenhouse have the two best positional differentials in the field at 12.8 and 11.4 respectively. Jones is the pole sitter and has two wins and three top-fives in four Xfinity races here. Newman hasn’t always been great here, but does have a top-five and three top-10s in the last five trips to the track. Ty Dillon finishes off the lineup as a guy who has two MENCS races under his fire suit here, finishing 15th and 25th, but has four top-10s in his Xfinity races at BMS.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kyle Busch$10,800
Matt Kenseth$9,400
Jimmie Johnson$9,300
Joey Logano$9,000
Matt DiBenedetto$5,800
Corey LaJoie$4,600
  
Total$48,900

The first GPP roster starts off with the most-expensive driver this week in Kyle Busch. He has three DNFs here in the last five races, but most were not of his making as parts failed and tires blew. He has top-end speed again this week and if he avoids trouble, his P18 starting spot provides big upside. Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, and Joey Logano all follow Busch in the $9,000-range. Kenseth and Logano have had their share of struggles this season and need wins to lock up a spot in the Chase, but both have the history here to do just that. Johnson bring another win to the lineup as well as four top-10 finishes, with him starting P21, it’s too hard to turn down his value. Matt DiBenedetto and Corey LaJoie finish off the six-driver roster with two budget-friendly plays that have proven they can move through the field with ease here, including a sixth-place finish from DiBenedetto.

Draft Kings GPP #2 
Kyle Larson$10,500
Ryan Blaney$8,900
Erik Jones$8,700
Austin Dillon$7,500
Ryan Newman$7,200
Chris Buescher$6,000
  
Total$48,800

The second GPP for Saturday’s race starts with the same driver as the cash lineup does, Kyle Larson. Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones are next up in the lineup as Blaney had the best speed across both practices running P4 and P1 while Jones is the pole sitter. Blaney does have a history of moving in reverse but if he can show his speed from the 10th spot in the starting grid, he’s well worth the play. Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman are the final two drivers above the $7,000 range. Dillon has a top-five and two top-10s in the last five and has flashed solid speed this week. Meanwhile Newman has three top-10s in the last five races and has 16 such finishes in his 31-race career at the track. The final spot in the roster goes to Chris Buescher who has a top-five and a top-10 at Bristol in the last four races he’s run here.

NASCAR Live 
Kyle Larson$27.75
Matt Kenseth$27.00
Erik Jones$22.50
Ryan Blaney$17.25
Matt DiBenedetto$5.00
Bonus WinnerMatt Kenseth
Bonus ManufacturerToyota
  
Total$99.50

The NASCAR Live lineup combines drivers used in previous ones to give a nice cross-over feel. Kyle Larson leads it off, followed by Matt Kenseth, Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney, and Matt DiBenedetto. The five of them give two laps led dominators, Larson and Jones, with three positional differential drivers in Kenseth, Blaney, and DiBenedetto.

Streak To The FinishJimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson is one of only three drivers in the field with four top-10s in the last five races and I expect him to do that once more. He ran P10 in practice before qualifying P21.