This Saturday night brings the final race of the season at Bristol Motor Speedway, or The Last Great Colosseum as it’s known, in the form of the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. It will be a 500-lap race around the shortest track on the Cup circuit starting at 7:30 ET Saturday. Despite the shortness of the track, the speeds remain decently high given the 22-24 degree banking in the corners. Unplanned green flag pit stops can be race-changing at Bristol since it takes just 14-15 seconds take make a lap here. Results have been mixed for numerous drivers here in the last couple of years. There have been five different winners here in the last five races from four different teams, with all three manufacturers notching victories. In all but one of the last six August races here, two drivers have led more than 110 laps, in the other one only one driver led in the triple-digits.

Track Data

 Avg.Avg.     Laps  HighLow Avg.DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Kevin Harvick10.410.25134433901380115.20.284.7516.95
Jimmie Johnson14.27.451344810123097.36.820.254.05
Joey Logano5.813.2512442900140098.2-7.472.514.50
Matt Kenseth8.624512221891142287.8-15.447.259.45
Denny Hamlin5.612.450234831326091.8-6.820.754.15
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.21.810.45023400221077.811.400.00
Clint Bowyer24.411.65023400231076.612.800.00
Ryan Newman16.213.25013490528082.732.250.45
Austin Dillon15.413.25012400426076.72.200.00
Chase Elliott98.6730123140415097.30.333.51.17
Dale Earnhardt Jr.18.316.254012300238175.82.0500.00
Trevor Bayne19.414.25011400528070.15.200.00
Kurt Busch14.619501131390338191-4.434.756.95
Chris Buescher24.522.54011100539152.8200.00
Kyle Larson1522.6500222920641193.3-7.67314.60
Jamie McMurray1611.65001500814089.84.400.00
Matt DiBenedetto28.819.25001300633055.49.600.00
Martin Truex Jr.11.420.4500121160829096.3-9295.80
Brad Keselowski6.625.25001240635071.7-18.610.20
A.J. Allmendinger17.423.65001200934171.6-6.200.00
Kyle Busch4.330400114480839396-25.711228.00
Danica Patrick29.824.25001100936151.25.600.00
Kasey Kahne14.820.650004001337179-5.800.00
Paul Menard19.619.650003401132068.6010.20
Aric Almirola23.62050003001334064.53.600.00
Landon Cassill29.231500012502043148.6-1.86.251.25
Erik Jones141710001001717093.4-300.00
Daniel Suarez231810001001818064.2500.00
Ty Dillon292020001001525061.7900.00
Ryan Blaney10.825.2540001001135073.3-14.4500.00
Michael McDowell26.825.450001001931046.41.400.00
Corey LaJoie352410000002424043.81100.00
Cole Whitt3627.850000002134039.58.200.00
Gray Gaulding362910000002929032.9700.00
Jeffrey Earnhardt37.329.3330000002732033.67.9700.00
Reed Sorenson3631.67300000027401314.3300.00
David Ragan21.832.850000002141249.6-1100.00
J.J. Yeley33.53320000003234034.60.500.00
Timmy Hill39.53820000003739126.41.500.00
B.J. McLeod0000000000000000.00
Joey Gase0000000000000000.00

Top-15 Drivers at Bristol Motor Speedway Historically

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFPts.Pts.Pts./race
Kurt Busch17.415.15335916231,062114232.25265.58.05
Kyle Busch15.915.13245813161,959013940.77489.7520.41
Matt Kenseth14.913.893541421261,572214261.0139311.23
Kevin Harvick16.413.61332121624876113932.792196.64
Jimmie Johnson14.913.74312111822914113611.16228.57.37
Joey Logano7.616.82172471252211401-9.22130.57.68
Brad Keselowski10.117.13152451049901350-7.03124.758.32
Dale Earnhardt Jr.20.913.2634181628790013937.64197.55.81
Denny Hamlin14.615.912316111660731432-1.31151.756.60
Kasey Kahne12.918.32715101851211424-5.41284.74
Clint Bowyer20.815.0923071116137024025.7134.251.49
Jamie McMurray16.516.3829031120179034310.1244.751.54
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.22.910.449035800221012.4600.00
Ryan Newman11.316.293102162112132392-4.9930.250.98
Martin Truex Jr.16.320.3230231323002382-457.52.50

Top-15 Drivers at Short Tracks (Since Feb. 2015)

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow  DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Joey Logano410.471527121379251400103-6.4719813.20
Denny Hamlin8.711.73152710115122139198.1-3.031288.53
Jimmie Johnson14.49.7315269132170135096.24.6754.253.62
Matt Kenseth9.817.7315258994221424101.9-7.93235.515.70
Kevin Harvick11.110.331517101467901380108.60.77169.7511.32
Brad Keselowski9.21415168114060135098.1-4.8101.56.77
Kyle Busch6.513.51216891,16501393110.9-7291.2524.27
Kurt Busch13.717.1315125105310138290.8-3.43132.758.85
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.21.220.3315035800240164.60.8700.00
Austin Dillon19.917.2150341160441173.82.71.50.10
Dale Earnhardt Jr.19.517.9212034800238279.61.5800.00
Jamie McMurray14.612.33150271340238189.32.2710.07
Clint Bowyer23.917.5315026900243171.36.3700.00
Kyle Larson12.215.7914024113410241191.9-3.5985.256.09
Chase Elliott14.415.45110239340338081.6-1.058.50.77

Drivers to Watch This Week

Kevin Harvick: Harvick comes in as the top driver in the field this week, over the last five races, with a win, three top-fives, four top-10s, and 339 laps led in that span. He is also the only driver in the field with a driver rating of over 100, clocking in a 115.2 to be precise. Over his 33-race career here, he has two total wins and 12 top-fives and the fifth-most laps led at 876. Him being at a slightly discounted price, despite his clear skill at the track makes him a top play option on Saturday.

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is the only driver in the field with an average finish better than 10.0 in the last five races here, finishing at 7.4. That mark includes a win, being the only other driver with three top-fives, four top-10s, and 81 laps led. Over his career, 31 races, he is about the same as Harvick with the same win total, and similar top-fives, top-10s, and top-20 tallies, as well as laps led. He is even cheaper than Harvick this week, making him a potentially better value play depending on the car he has in Tennessee this weekend.

Kurt and Kyle Busch: This is unusual to talk about two drivers at the same time here, but their numbers a close enough, career-wise, to make it work. Both are the only drivers in the field with five career wins here, granted Kyle’s happened in nine fewer races, and they have very similar top-five, and top-10 finishes counts. The major difference comes in the laps led department where Kyle has a nearly 900-lap advantage, though they are still number-one and number-three in the category. Of late however, Kurt has been the more consistent driver with a top-five, top-10, and three top-20s compared to Kyle’s three DNF’s, though not all his fault. Both Busch’s are in their normal spots in salary terms, so it really depends on the cars they have on which one to play.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse may sound like an interesting choice to watch this week, given his dominance at the longer and restrictor plate tracks this season, but the choice makes sense. In the last five races, Stenhouse has the second-best positional differential in the field, which is important this week with how hard it is to pass, at 11.4. He has two top-fives, and three top-10s, including a second place finish at this race last year. There are no laps led for him in that span, but that’s not a big deal. Just to add more reasoning behind it, he has eight top-20s in nine career races here, and his worst finish is 21st.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has been talked about a lot over the last several weeks since he continues to be precariously sitting on the proverbially bubble for The Chase. Bowyer has the best positional differential in the field this week, at 12.8 over the last five races, despite having a 31st-place finish in that span. His two top-fives and three top-10s bolster that average finish up to 11.6. Bowyer may not have a win at Bristol in his career, but he does have seven top-fives, 11 top-10s, and 16 top-20s in 23 races, including a runner-up finish in the April race this year. With just three races left until The Chase, including Saturday’s, he will need strong finishes to lock in his spot.