Pure Michigan 400
Michigan International Speedway
Last week provided the last road course action of the season as Watkins Glen played host for the I Love New York 355 and saw Martin Truex Jr. get his fourth win of 2017. Fuel mileage played a critical role at the end of the race as several teams tried to make it and failed. Overall it was an uneventful race, with just one non-stage related caution in all 90 laps. With the road courses over with, it is varying sized oval tracks from here on in.
Michigan International Speedway plays host to this week’s Pure Michigan 400 as it will close out its’ two-race schedule in the 2017 season. Michigan is one of two 2-mile long tracks on the NASCAR schedule with Auto Club Speedway being the other one, and a near identical layout. Despite the high-speeds that are always present at MIS, practice speeds topped 203 mph, this is not a restrictor-plate track as the shallower banking and long, wide, sweeping turns help to mitigate the issues that Daytona and Talladega present.
In the past six August races at the track, five have had relatively split laps led totals across several drivers, whereas one race saw Matt Kenseth lead 148 of the 200 laps run. Like what is typical at a track of this distance or longer, it is hard for one driver to continually hold the lead since there is a lot of distance to close gaps per lap. In previous races at Michigan, 84% of winners have come from cars starting inside the top-five, though in the last six August races three have come from P12, P13, and P17 while the others have one from the pole.
One quick word of note, Jimmie Johnson crashed in the final practice and had to go to a backup car which will force him to the back of the field. However for DraftKings he will still be counted as starting P22 for points and position differential.
DFS PLAYBOOK
| Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,600 | $28.25 | Truex has two top-fives and three top-10s in the last five races here. He has run inside the top-10 at practice all week and start P13. He can be played in both cash or GPP lineups this week. |
| Kyle Larson | $10,300 | $27.25 | Larson is the heavy favorite this week having won the last two races here and showing solid speed again this week. His two wins this year are at Michigan and Auto Club (both 2-mile tracks) |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,900 | $27.75 | Harvick has three top-fives in the last five races here and is fourth in laps led at 111. Harvick is second only to Kenseth in terms of career top-five and top-10 finishes at MIS. Either works |
| Chase Elliott | $9,800 | $26.25 | Elliott has three races here in his career and his finished second in all three. He has a bit of a shaky car this weekend but still qualified P5. A cash game play makes sense for him this Sunday |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,600 | $27.50 | Hamlin has two top-fives and three top-10s in the last five races at MIS and has led 79 laps. He starts P10 and has run P3, P15, and P8 in the three practices. He remains on baby watch too |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,400 | $26.50 | Keselowski is the pole sitter this week and has had a fast car in two of the three practices. He has four top-10s and two top-fives in the last five races as Ford usually does very well at MIS |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,300 | $27.00 | Kenseth is the best driver in the field in terms of career numbers at the track as can be seen in the track breakdown. He has run P13, P16, P11 in practice and qualified P4. A GPP play here |
| Joey Logano | $9,000 | $24.00 | Logano will start P2 after running P10, P18, and P3 in practice. He has a win here in the last five and the best average finish at 5.2. He is the only driver with five top-10s. Either format works |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | $17.50 | Blaney has shown the speed once again this week running P1, P4, and P4 in practie before qualifying P12. He has just one top-five in the last five races and a negative PD. Either still works |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,500 | $25.50 | McMurray has a top-five and four top-10s here in the last five races and has consistent speed again this week. He needs a win to make the Chase and is a dark horse choice this week. |
| Erik Jones | $8,400 | $22.00 | Jones will try and mirror his MENCS debut at the track back in June when he finished 13th. He finished fourth here in his lone Xfinity race as well. He ran P12, P7, and P12 in practice. GPP |
| Kurt Busch | $8,000 | $19.25 | Kurt is the better of the two Busch brothers here at Michigan. He has a win and two top-10s in the last five here but three wins overall in his career, tying Kenseth. He starts P15 giving upside |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $7,900 | $15.25 | Jr. has three top-10s in the last four he's raced at MIS and he has two career wins. He has top-five speed this week but starts P19 after qualifying. That's a lot of upside for either format |
| Ty Dillon | $6,600 | $16.75 | Dillon has a very good +7.37 PD here in the last three races with a high finish of P14. The rookie has been shaky at times but that’s to be expected. He starts P33 but should finish mid-20s |
| Cole Whitt | $5,100 | $4.75 | Whitt is the budget-friendly play this week given his nice history of moving through the field at Michigan. You could certainly do worse than his +6 postional differential this far down in price |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kyle Larson | $10,300 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,800 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,000 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $7,900 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,100 |
| Total | $49,800 |
This week’s cash lineup is made up of consistent performers here in the past and some risk based on this season. Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott lead the way as the top-two finishers two of the last three races here with Elliott finishing second all three times. Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are the middle of the roster drivers who bring both consistency and risk combined. Blaney has shown speed again, but that hasn’t always translated to the race. Busch is the second best career driver here but has been shaky since winning the first race of the year. Jr. has a top-five car this week but bad luck and bad driving has been hard to avoid for the 88-team this year. Cole Whitt finishes it off as a high PD budget-friendly play at the bottom of the roster.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,600 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,300 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,400 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $7,900 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,600 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,100 |
| Total | $49,900 |
The first GPP roster this week starts with two of the three most expensive guys in Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson. Truex has been solid here in the last five races but hasn’t been his dominating self yet, while Larson is going for three in a row here but still is iffy on the speed this week. Brad Keselowski and Dale Earnhardt Jr. make up the next two drivers on the list with Brad sitting on the pole and having shown top-end speed much of the week and Jr. being picked for the same reason as the cash lineup choice was made. Ty Dillon and Cole Whitt round out the lineup with two less expensive plays who can help the positional differential figure at the bottom of the roster. Both guys possess better than +6 PD figured over the last few races here.
| Draft Kings GPP #2 | |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,900 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,300 |
| Joey Logano | $9,000 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,500 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $7,900 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,100 |
| Total | $49,700 |
The second GPP roster has some different names in the mix but ends again with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Cole Whitt. Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth lead things off for this grouping as two drivers who have the capacity to do very well here, Kenseth especially, but have been slightly up and down years by their standards. Joey Logano and Jamie McMurray make up the third and fourth spots in the lineup because of their respective histories at the track. Logano has a win here and the best average finish over the last five races at 5.2 but hasn’t been the same since early in the season for the most part. McMurray has four top-10s in the last five races here and will start P7 on Sunday while still looking for a win to make the Chase with his teammate Kyle Larson.
| NASCAR Live | |
| Kyle Larson | $27.25 |
| Jamie McMurray | $25.50 |
| Joey Logano | $24.00 |
| Ryan Blaney | $17.50 |
| Cole Whitt | $4.75 |
| Bonus Winner | Kyle Larson |
| Bonus Manufacturer | Chevy |
| Total | $99.00 |
The NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup is made up of five drivers we have talked about in other lineups but combined, make a more GPP style grouping. Kyle Larson, Jamie McMurray, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Cole Whitt all possess the speed and positioning to lead laps and move through field effectively to gain the most points.
| Streak To The Finish | Joey Logano |
Logano is the only driver in the field to finish in the top-10 in each of the last five races and makes the perfect choice for Streak To The Finish.