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***Updated post-qualifying lineups are out now. Including analysis for roster construction.***
Overton’s 400
Pocono Raceway
Last week wasn’t so much a race as it was a demolition derby on a track. After a nearly two hour red flag, after running just 12 laps, due to rain, the race got underway for good and ended hours later with Kasey Kahne breaking a 102-race winless streak. The two best cars on the track, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch, took each other out midway through the race and then their pit crews scuffled as tempers flared. All in all low-owned plays kept the cash lineup afloat in most contests.
As we have talked about before, the last time they raced here in June, the track is known as “The Tricky Triangle” for its distinctive shape. The three turns aren’t the only distinguishing feature of the 2.5-mile track, the turns are all differently banked, none more than 14 degrees, and Pocono has the longest straightaway on the schedule at nearly three-quarters of a mile in length. The turns are only one or two grooves-wide, however the straightaways between them can run as many as six wide down the front stretch.
For the June race I mentioned that it is unlikely to have a true laps led dominator at Pocono since history shows us that about half the time one driver leads more than even 50 laps let alone 70+. In fact only once out of the last six August races here has a driver, Joey Logano, led 70+. That wasn’t the case in June, when Kyle Busch led 100 of the 160 run before eventually finishing ninth that day. While it is still an unusual happening, the fact there are just six races left to clinch a spot in the chase and some big names still haven’t, could change the dynamic of that stat. The stat 87% of winners coming for the top-five starting positions, belies the fact that there have been five different winners in the last five races here, including two of them getting their first ever Monster Energy Cup Series win overall.
Some things to watch out for this week are brake and shifting issues. The June race saw it’s fair share of drivers crash with brake failures including Jimmy Johnson and Jamie McMurray at practically the same time at the same spot on the track. In practices there have already been a few teams working on their brakes to sure them up for the race on Sunday. Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick both had shifting issues and Earnhardt wound up blowing up two engines that weekend because of it, while Harvick somehow saved his and nearly won the race.
DFS PLAYBOOK
| Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
| Kyle Busch | $10,700 | $27.00 | Kyle was dominant here in June, leading 100 laps before finishing ninth. He hasn't won here but has three top-10s in the last five races. Fastest car in final practice by .2 seconds |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,500 | $28.00 | Truex has a win here and is second in laps led in the last five races. He has run seventh in both pracitces this week but is down some key pit crew members. He can work in both |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,200 | $27.50 | Harvick has three top-fives and four top-10s in the last five races at Pocono including a P2 in June. His speed is just inside the top-10 at practice but works for both cash and GPP |
| Kyle Larson | $10,100 | $27.75 | Larson started and finished seventh in June but has the second fastest car on the track so far this week. He has three top-10s and finished no worse than 12th. His +7.4 PD is fourth |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,700 | $27.25 | Hamlin has the most wins on the track with four in his career, though none recently. He has 14 career top-10s in 23 races including two in the last five races. GPP play would be best |
| Chase Elliott | $9,500 | $26.75 | Chase has a top-five and two top-10s in his three races here. He ran sixth in final practice and still needs a win to cement his Chase spot. He also sits fifth with 51 laps led in those 3 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,200 | $26.25 | Kenseth has a win here and four top-10s in the last five races as well as the second best average finish at 8.2. He led the first practice this week and needs a win for a Chase spot |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | $18.00 | Blaney notched his first career win here in June after holding off Harvick. He has a fast car once more and confidence. Aside from the win he has two top-10s in his three races here |
| Erik Jones | $8,300 | $21.50 | Jones finished third in his first MENCS race here in June after starting P15. He ran third in the first practice on Saturday as well. He still remains a GPP play given his history of crashing |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,000 | $23.75 | Bowyer has been very solid in the last few races, until Indy. He finished 17th in June but has shown better speed than that at practice. He is pushing for a win to make the Chase |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $7,800 | $16.25 | This is Jr.'s best track for top-five finishes percentage wise with 11 in 34 races. He blew two engines in June but had a fast car when it ran. Two top-fives in the last four make him a cash play |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,000 | $18.25 | Stenhouse finished 11th here in June for his third top-20 finish in five races here. He has top-10 speed in both practices and has looked good at long tracks this year. He is a GPP only play |
| Ty Dillon | $6,600 | $16.25 | Dillon has the best PD over multiple races at a +9 mark here. Dillon has finished between 18-21 in his three races run at Pocono. At this price point he brings an upside with positional points |
| Danica Patrick | $5,900 | $10.00 | Danica has two top-20s here in the last five races including a 16th place finish in June. In the last eight races overall she has four top-15s including a 16th and 17th as well. She is a GPP play |
| Cole Whitt | $4,900 | $4.75 | Whitt is a bottom of the barrell budget play this week after his nice showing in the demolition derby at Indy last week. The last time he was this price he posted 31 points at Sonoma |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kyle Busch | $10,700 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,100 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,500 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $7,800 |
| Ty Dillion | $6,600 |
| Cole Whitt | $4,900 |
| Total | $49,600 |
The cash lineup this week hasn't changed following qualifying as I love all the values each selection gives. Kyle Busch ran away with the pole on Sunday morning finishing .2 seconds better than Martin Truex Jr. for the top spot and should lead a vast bulk of the laps during the race. Kyle Larson will start P16 after having run second-fastest in both practice sessions and offers major upside for position differential. Chase Elliott ran in the top-five in practice but will start P13 giving him nice upside too and a shot at a top-five finish here again. Dale Earnhardt Jr. will start 23rd but is used to starting around there at Pocono the last few years. He still has two top-five finishes from those starts and this track is his best track (percentage-wise) for top-five finishes in his career. Ty Dillon and Cole Whitt each offer budget-friendly options with position differential upside as Dillon has the best mark in the field at +9 (for a driver with more than one race here).
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,500 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,200 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 |
| Erik Jones | $8,300 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,000 |
| Danica Patrick | $5,900 |
| Total | $49,600 |
Like the cash lineup, the first GPP will not change either as the starting spots of each of the drivers offer enough upside that a pivot won't give. Martin Truex Jr. will start second once again and is clearly the second-fastest car on the track after qualifying, however he should be able to lead a fair share of laps in addition to Kyle Busch. Matt Kenseth is starting P15 Sunday afternoon but led the first practice on Saturday and has the second-best average finish here over the last five races at 8.2 including a win. Ryan Blaney ran consistently at practice and qualified P5 for the race, after coming off a win here in June. He has a fast enough car and the confidence to race up front all day and could sneak out the season sweep at The Tricky Triangle. Erik Jones has another fast car this week and ran up through the field well in June to finish third after fading a bit late. He has been in the discussion for wins this season, and his ninth place starting spot keeps him in that discussion this week. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Danica Patrick have both run well at practice this week, with Ricky running in the top-10 in both but starting 21. Danica starts right next to him at 22 but has three straight top-15s and finished 16th here in June.
| Draft Kings GPP #2 | |
| Kyle Busch | $10,700 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,500 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,100 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,600 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,200 |
| Danica Patrick | $5,900 |
| Total | $50,000 |
The second GPP lineup will also remain mostly unchanged as it is filled with a great combination of value plays. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. offer the two fastest cars on the track at qualifying and two of the fastest all season, including this week at practice. Kyle Larson ran second in both practices and starts 16th with an itch to get to the front. He has been spectactular in all three of his races at Pocono in his career. Ty Dillon, Chris Buescher, and Danica Patrick offer three budget-friendly drivers with very good upside given their respective histories. Dillon has the best PD in the field and has looked solid again this week. Buescher is a former winner here, though in a fog-shortened race, and this week he has shown top-five speed in practice. He starts P24 but has moved up well through the field starting in that realm each of the last few weeks, and should have a shot to do it again Sunday. Danica is in the middle of one of the best stretches of her career and ran very well here seven weeks ago.
| NASCAR Live | |
| Kyle Larson | $27.75 |
| Kyle Busch | $27.00 |
| Ryan Blaney | $18.00 |
| Dale Earnhhardt Jr. | $16.25 |
| Danica Patrick | $10.00 |
| Bonus Winner | Kyle Busch |
| Bonus Manufacturer | Toyota |
| Total | $99.00 |
The NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup consists of drivers we have seen in the DK lineups and combine to give us a potential laps led dominator and three of the fastest cars on the track. The other two Dale Jr. and Danica give upside plays at their respective price points and have solid enough histories here to be seen as solid plays.
| Streak To The Finish | Kyle Larson |
Kyle Larson has three top-10 finishes at Pocono in his last five races here and an average finish of 8.8 with the worst finish being 12th.