Overton’s 301
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Last week was another coronation of sorts for Martin Truex Jr. as he locked down his third win of the season with a dominant showing at Kentucky. Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson also showed very well despite coming up short, and before a failed race inspection cost Larson his crew chief for three races. A couple of wrecks cost Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth a chance for the win despite having fast cars all race long.
Loudon maybe the perfect name of a town hosting a NASCAR race. Nestled in the middle of the New Hampshire countryside is the flat, one-mile oval that is New Hampshire Motor Speedway, or “the Magic Mile” as it’s also known. In fact, the track is so flat that it actually has the slightest banking of any track on the schedule. Loudon opened for racing in 1990 and has been a favorite of the drivers ever since. This year however marks the last time it will host two races a year, as the second date, in the Fall, is being transferred to Las Vegas.
The data associated with the track is certainly points you into two different directions. Based on the last four races, there are only three drivers in the field with a +6 or better positional differential, which indicated that not a lot of passing has happened, due to it being mostly a one-groove track in past years. However the fact that only 73% of eventual winners have come from the top-five leads us to believe that there has been passing opportunities in the past. So the question becomes which one do we give more credit to? The answer is somewhere in between. NASCAR has been spraying the track all weekend with VHT in 10-foot swaths in the bottom and top groove while leaving the middle untouched. The results in practice have been mixed, with some drivers liking the change and others saying they still didn’t have grip. There is also weather currently affecting the running of the Xfinity race, as of the writing of this article, that will make officials re-spray the track. Either way the results of practice and qualifying should be looked at just like every week, though the results from the third practice should be weighted more since the air and track temps were a lot closer to Sunday’s forecast than the first two sessions were.
DFS Playbook
| Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
| Kyle Busch | $10,500 | $27.25 | Busch has a win and two top-fives and three top-10s in the last four races. He has also run very fast here this week and starts P7 on Sunday. He should be in either lineup this week |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,300 | $28.00 | Truex Jr. has a very fast car once again and showed what he can do with that a week ago. He has two top-10s and 264 laps led in the last four races. With him on the pole it's GPP |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,000 | $27.50 | Harvick has been sneaky this season and that's the case again this week. He has a win, three top-fives, and 283 laps led in the last four races here. He starts P12 and works for either |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,900 | $26.50 | Keselowski is coming off a disappointing day at Kentucky but has a good record at Loudon. He has two top-fives in the last four and no worse than a P15 finish. He is better for GPP |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,800 | $27.00 | Hamlin hasn't shown much this year but has two wins, and 13 top-10s in 22 career races here. The last four have seen him finish between 2nd and 15th. Starts P8 and works in GPP |
| Kyle Larson | $9,700 | $27.75 | Larson had some qualifying trouble again this week and starts P39. He has run three top-fives in practice. It will be tougher for him to make it up front, but he's still a must play again |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,600 | $26.00 | Johnson has an equal record to Matt Kenseth at the track but that hasn't show lately. He did qualify P2 but hasn't run that fast in any practice. He is a good GPP play but that's it |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,300 | $25.75 | Kenseth has two wins, and seven top-10s in the last eight races here. He is in need of a win to make the Chase and this could very well be his best chance. GPP or cash works here |
| Joey Logano | $8,800 | $25.50 | Logano has three top-fives in the last four and an average finish of 5.25 (2nd best) but only 12 laps led. He needs a win to make the Chase and will push hard for it. Either works |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,700 | $22.75 | Bowyer has been a very good driver at NHMS in his career, but the last two years haven't been great. He has shown top-10 speed in practice and is a darkhorse to nab the win Sunday |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $8,000 | $17.25 | Jr. has said this is an all or nothing weekend for him, but it hasn't looked great so far. He has 15 top-10s in 33 career races here but doesn't have a win. He remains a GPP-only play |
| Ryan Newman | $7,300 | $21.00 | Newman has two top-10s in the last four races at NHMS but has three wins, nine top-fives, and 18 top-10s in 30 career races. He will start P24 but very well could finish top-10 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,000 | $21.50 | Dillon is one of only three drivers to have a +6 PD or better in the field this week. He has a top-10 here and has run in the low-20s so far. The race however will be a different story |
| Aric Almirola | $6,600 | $13.50 | This is the first week back in the Richard Petty 43-car for Almirola since breaking his back at Kansas. The rust hasn't shown given his practice runs. He has three top-20s in the last 4 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,300 | $12.25 | Buescher is simply my favorite budget-friendly play this week. He qualified P22 and has shown speed around there in practice. If the right strategy is played, a top-15 is in the cards |
Optimal Lineups
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kyle Busch | $10,500 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,700 |
| Joey Logano | $8,800 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,300 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,000 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,300 |
| Total | $49,600 |
Two guys I have utilized often in, Kyle Bush and Kyle Larson anchor the cash lineup for Draft Kings. Both drivers have been spectacularly fast in recent weeks and are showing that speed once again. Busch has a better track record here, but Larson offers a ton of upside with starting in the back of the pack. Joey Logano, Ryan Newman, and Austin Dillon form the middle of the roster with three guys that each offer very good history at the track. Logano is at his home track still looking for a win towards the Chase and has the second-best average finish in the last four races. Newman has two top-10s in the last four and is a three-time winner overall. Dillon has shown he can move through the field well here. The final driver in the lineup is Chris Buescher who has shown decent speed and has top-15 potential.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,300 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,800 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,700 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,300 |
| David Ragan | $5,500 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,400 |
| Total | $50,000 |
The first GPP lineup starts with the other fastest driver in the field in Martin Truex Jr. and is filled out by three other $9,000-level drivers. Truex is on the pole once more and has run very fast all weekend. Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Matt Kenseth finish off the group. Hamlin and Kenseth each have great records at NHMS and Larson technically qualified on the pole before his time was disallowed and he was moved to the back of the pack. David Ragan and Landon Cassill fill out the last two spots on the roster with two upside budget plays.
| Draft Kings GPP #2 | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,000 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,700 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,700 |
| Erik Jones | $7,900 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,000 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,300 |
| Total | $49,600 |
The second GPP offers up a new group of six drivers that starts with Kevin Harvick as a driver who has three top-fives including a win in the last four races, with the most laps led. Kyle Larson and Clint Bowyer are the next two drivers up with both increasing the upside tremendously. Bowyer has a very good history here and has gotten faster every practice. Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, and Chris Buescher cap off the roster with young guys offering upside. Jones has continued to show great speed here and has a second-place finish to his credit in the only Xfinity race he ran at Loudon.
| NASCAR Live | |
| Kyle Larson | $27.75 |
| Kyle Busch | $27.25 |
| Clint Bowyer | $22.75 |
| Aric Almirola | $13.50 |
| David Ragan | $7.75 |
| Bonus Winner | Matt Kenseth |
| Bonus Manufacturer | Toyota |
| Total | $99.00 |
The NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup has four drivers who were previously discussed and one new one into the mix. Aric Almirola is back for the first time since breaking his back at Kansas two months ago. Despite not racing at all for that time, there appears to be no rust given his showing in practice and qualifying. He is a bit of a risk but he does have three top-20 finishes in the last four races including a 15th place finish.
| Streak To The Finish | Matt Kenseth |
Kenseth has seven top-10s in the last eight races here and there is no reason to think that run should end on Sunday.