Quaker State 400
Kentucky Speedway
Chaos. That’s what we saw last week at Daytona when it took the form of a normal restrictor plate race and had the guys in the back of the pack scoring the most points. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. came away the winner after a serious run to the inside of David Ragan gave him a lead too large to overcome with just three laps to go. It was his second win of the season and the second at a restrictor plate track. Several big names failed to finish the race after being involved in serious accidents, namely Kyle Larson who left the track and went airborne.
Now that the final race at Daytona is done for the season, the attention turns to western Kentucky and the challenge that Kentucky Speedway poses. It is a 1.5-mile track, and that’s about all that it shares in common with other 1.5-mile tracks. It is a shallow-banked track with just 14-degree banking in Turns 3 & 4 and a wide racing surface that causes problems for even the best drivers. Kentucky is also the newest track on the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule, having been raced at just six times previously. There is yet one more reason that it is also tough, it has been repaved twice in the last two years.
Since the July 2011, the first one at the track for then Sprint Cup Series, all six races have had a dominator in laps led and all six races have had no more than four drivers lead significant laps, more than 20. Several times, the laps led leader has amassed more than 150 laps led. A couple more things to keep in mind are that Chevy has never won at Kentucky and 83% of winners have come from inside the top-five starting spots, meaning five in six years. Passing is challenging at Kentucky given the two different ends of the track and the inability to carry speed through the corners due to their shallowness.
DFS Playbook
| Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,400 | $28.00 | Truex is starting second for the fifth time this season and he has shown top-end speed this weekend. He has a history of backing up a bit but he does have three top-10s in six races |
| Kyle Busch | $10,200 | $27.25 | Busch has two career wins here four top-fives and five top-10s in six races here. He is also second in career laps led and has a top-two car in speed at practice. GPP for Pole Sitter |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,100 | $27.00 | Keselowski is the only driver more accomplished at Kentucky than Busch. He has three wins, three top-fives, and five top-10s. He ran 15th in practice, but the 3rd best 10-lap average |
| Kyle Larson | $10,000 | $27.75 | Larson ran third and first in practice, and first by .3 seconds over Kyle Busch. He starts 40th thanks to not passing pre-qualifying inspection in time. He should be a must play at P40 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,700 | $26.25 | Johnson is third on the list of laps led with 203 in his career, just six races, and has a top-five and five top-10s at Kentucky. The last two seasons have been a mixed bag for him |
| Chase Elliott | $9,500 | $26.75 | Chase has only run once at Kentucky in the highest series, and he finished 31st. He has shown consistent speed this week and is worth a GPP play in his second go around here |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,200 | $27.00 | Hamlin has finished third and 15th in the last two years he has two top-fives in six races. He starts P5 and ran sixth and 14th in pracitces. Toyota starts four of the top-five places |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,100 | $25.75 | Kenseth is the only other driver in the field with a win at Kentucky and he starts P3 on Saturday. However he ran 17th and 7th in practice and has been up and down this season. GPP |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | $19.00 | Blaney ran fourth in both practices and then qualfied sixth. Blaney started 15th and finished 35th last year but has a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s in three Xfinity Series races |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,400 | $22.25 | Bowyer has just one top-five in six Kentucky races but has a +6.5 PD in the last years, despite being on rough teams. Bowyer has had two good practices but remains a GPP play |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,400 | $17.50 | Stenhouse Jr. is fresh off another win last week and that speed has carried itself over to Kentucky. He doesn't have a great track record here, but he has the speed to change that. |
| Ryan Newman | $7,300 | $20.75 | Newman has three top-fives in six races here including a P3 in the last two years. This week his speed appears to be lacking a bit as he starts P29. A strong GPP play if he figures it out |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,100 | $20.00 | Suarez hasn't races at Kentucky in the Monster Energy Cup but he did have three top-five finishes in four races in the Xfinity series. He has flashed top-10 speed and has great upside |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,900 | $20.00 | Bayne has the best positional differential in the field at +10.5 in the last two years. He starts P19 but has run better than that in practice. He is a low-end cash game play this week |
| David Ragan | $5,400 | $8.00 | Ragan is my favorite cheap play this week. He has a +6 average positional differential in six races here and has a top-10. He ran 20th in the second practice and starts P26. Nice upside |
Optimal Lineups
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,400 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,100 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,000 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,100 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,900 |
| David Ragan | $5,400 |
| Total | $49,900 |
The cash lineup this week is anchored by three of the priciest drivers in the field, though there’s a reason they’re that highly-priced. Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Larson are all in the lineup for slightly different reasons. Truex has shown dominance at this distance and has a very fast car, in fact the only faster car on the track is Larson, who is also sitting at the back of the pack to start. Brad is the driver with the most wins and has a great positional differential. Daniel Suarez, Trevor Bayne, and David Ragan finish off the six-driver squad by offering upside from the mid-tier and lower price range. Suarez has three top-fives in four races here at the Xfinity level and Bayne has finished 11th and 13th the last two years after starting 22nd. David Ragan has a top-10 here and could sneak that high again.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Kyle Busch | $10,200 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,000 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,400 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,300 |
| David Ragan | $5,400 |
| Total | $50,000 |
The first GPP roster this week pairs my most two-commonly played drivers together in Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson. Busch maybe the only driver more consistent than Brad at Kentucky and Larson is hard to pass up for the reasons stated above. Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, and Ryan Newman are next up in the lineup due to Blaney’s 4th place finishes in practice and a win and two top-fives in Xfinity Series, Bowyer has shown speed in practice and has maintained solid performance despite bad teams, and Newman has three top-five showings in six races here, but will have to work this year to get that high. David Ragan finishes off the roster.
| Draft Kings GPP #2 | |
| Kyle Busch | $10,200 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,100 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,400 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,100 |
| David Ragan | $5,400 |
| Total | $49,700 |
My second GPP offering leads off with the two best drivers at this track in the field in Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. Chase Elliott, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Daniel Suarez bring the total to five. Chase wasn’t great here last year but has a car showing top-10 speed this week, Stenhouse is fresh off his second restrictor plate win of the season but is now starting to show the ability to transfer that speed to the 1.5-mile distance, and Suarez given his experience at the track previously. Again, David Ragan finishes off the roster.
| NASCAR Live | |
| Kyle Larson | $27.75 |
| Brad Keselowski | $27.00 |
| Ryan Blaney | $19.00 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $17.50 |
| David Ragan | $8.00 |
| Bonus Winner | Martin Truex Jr. |
| Bonus Manufacturer | Toyota |
| Total | $99.25 |
NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup is made from five drivers I have discussed already in Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and David Ragan.
| Streak To The Finish | Kyle Busch |
Busch has finished in the top-10 all but one year and this should be another instance of a top-10 finish for the pole sitter.