DFS NASCAR: Quaker State 400 Track Breakdown

The wilds of western Kentucky is home to the Kentucky Speedway and this week’s Quaker State 400. Kentucky Speedway is the newest addition to the Monster Energy Cup Series as they didn’t start racing here until 2011. Along with the short history at the track, there have been a couple of repaves in its history too, including one this year that has never been raced on. The track is however the most-common distance on the schedule at 1.5-miles and a Tri-Oval, but it’s wide shallow turns make Turns 3 and 4 especially hard to navigate. There are only seven drivers in the field to have led a meaningful amount, 10 or more, laps at the speedway as well, making it either incredibly closed off for driver selection or a wide-open race could emerge. In the field for Saturday’s race are only seven drivers with a +6 positional differential or better, as well.

To make matters worse, they are calling for rain weekend at the track, in fact Xfinity Series practices have been delayed all day Thursday and Friday’s Monster Energy Cup on-track schedule could be delayed as well. The rain along with a new surface will make this a tough race to project even with good historical data.

Track Data

Top-15 Drivers at Kentucky Historically

Top-15 Drivers at 1.5-mile Tracks Since 2015

Drivers to watch this week:

Brad Keselowski: Brad comes in as the winningest driver in the field this week with three wins in six tries at Kentucky. Aside from the most wins, he also has three top-fives, five top-10s and 483 laps led (most in the field). Not only does he clearly like the track layout but, his mom’s family is from the area and who doesn’t like showing off for the mom? The shocker here is that he is only the third-most expensive driver this week on DK. He is a must play.

Kyle Busch: If Brad is the best driver on the track here, Kyle isn’t far behind with two wins himself and four top-fives. He also hasn’t finished worse than 12^th in all six races he’s run at Kentucky while amassing the second-most laps led with 437 combined. Busch is also tied with the driver right below him on this list with an average finish of 5.17. JGR hasn’t gotten a win yet this year, but that doesn’t mean that Busch hasn’t been close. This could absolutely be the weekend he notches his spot in the Chase.

Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is the only other driver in the field with a win at Kentucky. He, however, has been slightly more consistent than Busch and Keselowski with six top-10 finishes. Kenseth has only led 40 laps in six races though, which puts him eighth in the field historically. Like I mentioned before, he is tied with Busch for the best average finish in the last six races at 5.17, the difference is that he starts on average in 15^th compared to Busch’s 6.7 average start. His price at $9,100 in DK makes him an easy driver to work into a cash lineup.

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson hasn’t been great here in the last two years, finishing ninth and 32^nd. However he has a great track record, no pun intended, at this length of track and also specifically at Kentucky. He may only have one top-five, but he has five top-10s and the third-most laps led with 203. Overall since the start of 2015, 29 total races, J.J. has eight wins and 13 top-fives at 1.5-mile tracks. No Chevy has ever won at Kentucky but if he has the right car this week, he could break that streak.

David Ragan: Now for the surprise on the list. Ragan has been a top-15 driver here since the highest level of NASCAR starting racing here. He has a top-10 and two top-20s in six races along with the second-best positional differential in the field at +6.17. In the last two races he has finished 18^th and 22^nd. Ragan certainly goes under the “sleeper” category but at $5,400 it is hard to find a driver with a top-10 in that same range.