Pack racing…high banking…long straightaways? It must be time for restrictor plate racing once again. Daytona, the birth place of NASCAR, comes beckoning again this week and that means big crashes can’t be that far away. Daytona has the second steepest banks in NASCAR behind only Talladega and is one of the longest tracks at 2.5 miles per lap as well. The car setups should be nearly, if not totally, identical to what they ran at the Daytona 500 earlier this year, the only difference being that this race is 400 miles, not 500. As you look through the track data, there will be several drivers with outstanding positional differential marks, however keep in mind that often those are drivers who are riding in the back of the pack and benefit from the big crash that tends to happen at these kinds of tracks.
Saturday night is when the race is this week so my lineups will be out Friday evening after qualifying concludes.
Track Breakdown
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Denny Hamlin | 20.2 | 8.4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 116 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 98.3 | 11.8 | 29 | 5.80 |
Joey Logano | 13.8 | 7.8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 94.7 | 6 | 13.25 | 2.65 |
Kurt Busch | 13.5 | 9.75 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 90.6 | 3.75 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 5 | 19.6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 151 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 98.4 | -14.6 | 37.75 | 7.55 |
Brad Keselowski | 21.6 | 23.6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 118 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 88.2 | -2 | 29.5 | 5.90 |
Kevin Harvick | 16 | 14.2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 90.1 | 1.8 | 12.75 | 2.55 |
Jimmie Johnson | 14.4 | 18.4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 99 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 2 | 88.8 | -4 | 24.75 | 4.95 |
Kyle Busch | 10.3 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 86.2 | -4.7 | 13.25 | 3.31 |
Trevor Bayne | 17.8 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 69.7 | 1.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 21.4 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 89.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.30 |
A.J. Allmendinger | 28.2 | 15.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 64 | 12.6 | 0.75 | 0.15 |
Ryan Blaney | 16.8 | 18.5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 84 | -1.7 | 0.5 | 0.13 |
Paul Menard | 24.4 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 79.6 | 4.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21.6 | 21.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 72 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Austin Dillon | 13.8 | 11.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 80.4 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.80 |
Clint Bowyer | 16 | 18.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 63.8 | -2.2 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
Kyle Larson | 18.4 | 19.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 2 | 85.9 | -1.2 | 4 | 0.80 |
Kasey Kahne | 16 | 18.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 80.2 | -2.2 | 3 | 0.60 |
Ryan Newman | 22.8 | 19.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 54.9 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
Michael McDowell | 30.3 | 17.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 66.8 | 12.55 | 0 | 0.00 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 30.5 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 52.2 | 3.5 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
David Ragan | 24.6 | 19.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 58.7 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
Jamie McMurray | 12.4 | 24.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 2 | 82.7 | -11.8 | 3.25 | 0.65 |
Cole Whitt | 25 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 51.3 | 6 | 0.75 | 0.19 |
Landon Cassill | 24.8 | 25.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 43 | 1 | 49.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Chase Elliott | 8.7 | 27.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 0 | 61.8 | -18.97 | 10.5 | 3.50 |
Matt Kenseth | 14.6 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 14 | 40 | 1 | 67 | -13.4 | 10.25 | 2.05 |
Elliott Sadler | 40 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 54.7 | 20 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
Brendan Gaughan | 41 | 19.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 28 | 0 | 53 | 21.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Corey LaJoie | 31 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 36.1 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Jeffrey Earnhardt | 32 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 0.00 |
Reed Sorenson | 26.5 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 32 | 0 | 37.1 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ty Dillon | 20.3 | 27.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 30 | 1 | 62.8 | -7.37 | 0 | 0.00 |
Daniel Suarez | 19 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 | 1 | 37.5 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 |
Danica Patrick | 19.4 | 30.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 35 | 3 | 56.2 | -10.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
D.J. Kennington | 28 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 36 | 1 | 32.5 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 |
Chris Buescher | 26.3 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 40 | 3 | 56.8 | -11.7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Erik Jones | 34 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 1 | 50.6 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ryan Seig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Darrell Wallace Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top-15 Drivers at Daytona Historically
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 10.2 | 14.29 | 35 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 24 | 601 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 5 | -4.09 | 150.25 | 4.29 |
Jimmie Johnson | 10.9 | 18.03 | 31 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 285 | 2 | 1 | 42 | 8 | -7.13 | 71.25 | 2.30 |
Kevin Harvick | 16.3 | 16.31 | 32 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 229 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 4 | -0.01 | 57.25 | 1.79 |
Matt Kenseth | 17.5 | 18.77 | 35 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 362 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 6 | -1.27 | 90.5 | 2.59 |
Jamie McMurray | 20.2 | 23.66 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 10 | -3.46 | 13 | 0.45 |
Kurt Busch | 20.1 | 16.53 | 32 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 291 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 3.57 | 72.75 | 2.27 |
Kyle Busch | 14.5 | 18.38 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 382 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 6 | -3.88 | 95.5 | 3.98 |
Denny Hamlin | 17.7 | 17.13 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 369 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 0.57 | 92.25 | 4.01 |
Ryan Newman | 20.5 | 20.1 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 103 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 5 | 0.4 | 25.75 | 0.83 |
Joey Logano | 19.9 | 16.24 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 60 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 3.66 | 15 | 0.88 |
David Ragan | 24.4 | 20.62 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 6 | 3.78 | 8.75 | 0.42 |
Brad Keselowski | 22.4 | 21.13 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 155 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 5 | 1.27 | 38.75 | 2.42 |
Trevor Bayne | 20.8 | 23.23 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | -2.43 | 2 | 0.15 |
Elliott Sadler | 25.5 | 17.96 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 63 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 7.54 | 15.75 | 0.61 |
Clint Bowyer | 18.3 | 16.43 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 153 | 0 | 4 | 42 | 4 | 1.87 | 38.25 | 1.66 |
Top-15 Drivers at Restrictor Plate Tracks (since Feb. 2015)
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Joey Logano | 15 | 13.1 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 134 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 92.5 | 1.9 | 33.5 | 3.35 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 4.3 | 18.11 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 279 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 95.7 | -13.81 | 69.75 | 7.75 |
Brad Keselowski | 14.6 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 285 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 95.4 | -4.4 | 71.25 | 7.13 |
Denny Hamlin | 15.3 | 13.3 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 186 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 95.1 | 2 | 46.5 | 4.65 |
Kurt Busch | 14.1 | 8.78 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 89.6 | 5.32 | 0.75 | 0.08 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 16.7 | 16.3 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 75.5 | 0.4 | 5.75 | 0.58 |
Kyle Busch | 12.3 | 13.25 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 126 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 89.4 | -0.95 | 31.5 | 3.94 |
Kevin Harvick | 16.8 | 13.9 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 91.2 | 2.9 | 20 | 2.00 |
Jimmie Johnson | 13.2 | 16.5 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 186 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 2 | 89.5 | -3.3 | 46.5 | 4.65 |
Paul Menard | 17.1 | 15.7 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 2 | 81.2 | 1.4 | 0.75 | 0.08 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 21.2 | 19 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 83.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 0.20 |
Ryan Blaney | 14.3 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 3 | 85.3 | -5.7 | 1.25 | 0.14 |
Jamie McMurray | 18.9 | 19.6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 3 | 83.7 | -0.7 | 3.25 | 0.33 |
Austin Dillon | 13.8 | 15.3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 2 | 75.7 | -1.5 | 4.25 | 0.43 |
Trevor Bayne | 15 | 20.6 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 2 | 72.6 | -5.6 | 6.75 | 0.68 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Denny Hamlin: Denny has been the most consistent driver at Daytona over the last five races. He has compiled a win, three top-fives, three top-10s and is the only driver with five top-20 finishes. Hamlin has the third most laps led with 116 in front of the pack in the last 2.5 seasons here. Him being just $9,900 in Draft Kings and $26.75 in NASCAR Live is under valuing the consistent Hamlin this week.
Joey Logano: If Denny is the most consistent racer in the field, Logano isn’t terribly far behind. A win, two top-fives, and four top-10s are what he’s garnered in the last five trips. In fact his worst finish is 22nd. The best average finish in the field belongs to Logano at 7.8 in addition to him being tied for fifth in laps led with 53. Team Penske is known for being good restrictor plate cars to begin with and that makes Logano a tough play to beat on Saturday.
Dale Earnhart Jr. This will, barring unforeseen circumstances, be Dale Jr.’s final race at Daytona. Take that in for a second. Now onto why to play him Saturday. Jr. has a win, two top-fives, and two top-10s in the last five races with 151 laps led, the most in the field. Overall he has four wins at the track, most in the field, including two in this race. He needs a win to make the Chase in his final season and this might just be his last best chance to get it, especially coming in after two straight top-10 finishes.
Trevor Bayne: Bayne can be a great play when playing him on the right track, and this week is that track. He has three top-10 finishes in the last four trips to Daytona including a third place finish. Bayne also has a win at the track, the 2011 Daytona 500. His teammate, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., already has a win this year at a plate track and now he is hoping to join him in the Chase by notching one here.
A.J. Allmendinger: Most people think of Allmendinger as a road-course play, because of his open-wheeled racing experience, however he is a very good play at superspeedways as well. He has a very good positional differential of nearly +13 over the last five races. He has also finished between 3rd and 21st each time with one top-five and three top-20s. Allmendinger is a long shot to win this week but his PD and a sneaky top-10 play means he still brings a lot to the table.