Pack racing…high banking…long straightaways? It must be time for restrictor plate racing once again. Daytona, the birth place of NASCAR, comes beckoning again this week and that means big crashes can’t be that far away. Daytona has the second steepest banks in NASCAR behind only Talladega and is one of the longest tracks at 2.5 miles per lap as well. The car setups should be nearly, if not totally, identical to what they ran at the Daytona 500 earlier this year, the only difference being that this race is 400 miles, not 500. As you look through the track data, there will be several drivers with outstanding positional differential marks, however keep in mind that often those are drivers who are riding in the back of the pack and benefit from the big crash that tends to happen at these kinds of tracks.

Saturday night is when the race is this week so my lineups will be out Friday evening after qualifying concludes.

Track Breakdown

 Avg.Avg.     Laps  HighLow Avg.DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Denny Hamlin20.28.4513351160117098.311.8295.80
Joey Logano13.87.851244530122094.7613.252.65
Kurt Busch13.59.754123310123090.63.750.250.06
Dale Earnhardt Jr.519.6512221510137298.4-14.637.757.55
Brad Keselowski21.623.6511121180141288.2-229.55.90
Kevin Harvick1614.250333510239190.11.812.752.55
Jimmie Johnson14.418.450223990235288.8-424.754.95
Kyle Busch10.31540223530238186.2-4.713.253.31
Trevor Bayne17.8165013300330069.71.800.00
Martin Truex Jr.21.4185012360238189.73.41.50.30
A.J. Allmendinger28.215.6501133032106412.60.750.15
Ryan Blaney16.818.54011320239184-1.70.50.13
Paul Menard24.4205011300536179.64.400.00
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.21.621.250112005311720.400.00
Austin Dillon13.811.250035160719080.42.640.80
Clint Bowyer1618.25003320733163.8-2.20.50.10
Kyle Larson18.419.650023160639285.9-1.240.80
Kasey Kahne1618.250023120732080.2-2.230.60
Ryan Newman22.819.25001320838054.93.60.50.10
Michael McDowell30.317.7540013001031066.812.5500.00
Matt DiBenedetto30.5274001110940152.23.50.250.06
David Ragan24.619.850003201229058.74.80.50.10
Jamie McMurray12.424.2500021301534282.7-11.83.250.65
Cole Whitt251940002301125051.360.750.19
Landon Cassill24.825.250002001343149.4-0.400.00
Chase Elliott8.727.67300014221437061.8-18.9710.53.50
Matt Kenseth14.628500014101440167-13.410.252.05
Elliott Sadler402010001502020054.7201.251.25
Brendan Gaughan4119.52000100112805321.500.00
Corey LaJoie312410000002424036.1700.00
Jeffrey Earnhardt322610000002626133600.00
Reed Sorenson26.52720000002232037.1-0.500.00
Ty Dillon20.327.6730000002530162.8-7.3700.00
Daniel Suarez192910000002929137.5-1000.00
Danica Patrick19.430.250000002135356.2-10.800.00
D.J. Kennington283610000003636132.5-800.00
Chris Buescher26.33830000003540356.8-11.700.00
Erik Jones343910000003939150.6-500.00
Ryan Seig0000000000000000.00
Darrell Wallace Jr.0000000000000000.00

Top-15 Drivers at Daytona Historically

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFPts.Pts.Pts./race
Dale Earnhardt Jr.10.214.2935413192460111395-4.09150.254.29
Jimmie Johnson10.918.0331311141828521428-7.1371.252.30
Kevin Harvick16.316.313229142022911424-0.0157.251.79
Matt Kenseth17.518.773526142136211426-1.2790.52.59
Jamie McMurray20.223.66292351152013910-3.46130.45
Kurt Busch20.116.53321131719291014113.5772.752.27
Kyle Busch14.518.38241781438211416-3.8895.53.98
Denny Hamlin17.717.132316714369014310.5792.254.01
Ryan Newman20.520.13114715103014350.425.750.83
Joey Logano19.916.24171471260014323.66150.88
David Ragan24.420.62211341135014363.788.750.42
Brad Keselowski22.421.13161347155014151.2738.752.42
Trevor Bayne20.823.23131245801413-2.4320.15
Elliott Sadler25.517.96260491463024037.5415.750.61
Clint Bowyer18.316.4323031116153044241.8738.251.66

Top-15 Drivers at Restrictor Plate Tracks (since Feb. 2015)

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow  DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Joey Logano1513.11034661340133292.51.933.53.35
Dale Earnhardt Jr.4.318.11924442790140395.7-13.8169.757.75
Brad Keselowski14.6191023452850141395.4-4.471.257.13
Denny Hamlin15.313.31014581860137195.1246.54.65
Kurt Busch14.18.789137830123089.65.320.750.08
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.16.716.3101346231131175.50.45.750.58
Kyle Busch12.313.25804461260238189.4-0.9531.53.94
Kevin Harvick16.813.9100357800239191.22.9202.00
Jimmie Johnson13.216.51003461860235289.5-3.346.54.65
Paul Menard17.115.710024730336281.21.40.750.08
Martin Truex Jr.21.21910024681240383.32.220.20
Ryan Blaney14.3209023650243385.3-5.71.250.14
Jamie McMurray18.919.6100226130239383.7-0.73.250.33
Austin Dillon13.815.3100158170336275.7-1.54.250.43
Trevor Bayne1520.6100145270341272.6-5.66.750.68

Drivers to watch this week:

 Denny Hamlin: Denny has been the most consistent driver at Daytona over the last five races. He has compiled a win, three top-fives, three top-10s and is the only driver with five top-20 finishes. Hamlin has the third most laps led with 116 in front of the pack in the last 2.5 seasons here. Him being just $9,900 in Draft Kings and $26.75 in NASCAR Live is under valuing the consistent Hamlin this week.

Joey Logano: If Denny is the most consistent racer in the field, Logano isn’t terribly far behind. A win, two top-fives, and four top-10s are what he’s garnered in the last five trips. In fact his worst finish is 22nd. The best average finish in the field belongs to Logano at 7.8 in addition to him being tied for fifth in laps led with 53. Team Penske is known for being good restrictor plate cars to begin with and that makes Logano a tough play to beat on Saturday.

Dale Earnhart Jr. This will, barring unforeseen circumstances, be Dale Jr.’s final race at Daytona. Take that in for a second. Now onto why to play him Saturday. Jr. has a win, two top-fives, and two top-10s in the last five races with 151 laps led, the most in the field. Overall he has four wins at the track, most in the field, including two in this race. He needs a win to make the Chase in his final season and this might just be his last best chance to get it, especially coming in after two straight top-10 finishes.

Trevor Bayne: Bayne can be a great play when playing him on the right track, and this week is that track. He has three top-10 finishes in the last four trips to Daytona including a third place finish. Bayne also has a win at the track, the 2011 Daytona 500. His teammate, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., already has a win this year at a plate track and now he is hoping to join him in the Chase by notching one here.

A.J. Allmendinger: Most people think of Allmendinger as a road-course play, because of his open-wheeled racing experience, however he is a very good play at superspeedways as well. He has a very good positional differential of nearly +13 over the last five races. He has also finished between 3rd and 21st each time with one top-five and three top-20s. Allmendinger is a long shot to win this week but his PD and a sneaky top-10 play means he still brings a lot to the table.