Toyota Save Mart 350
Sonoma Raceway
Last week’s race came at the fastest track on the schedule, Michigan, where speeds routinely hit, and stayed at, higher than 200 mph. The same 1-2 finish happened again that happened last fall with Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott finishing first and second, respectively, just like last Fall. All of the laps were led by just four drivers, with nearly half of them led by Larson. It was a fairly uneventful race with very cautions, other than for the stages, and that led to wide-open throttles and everyone chasing the best car on the track.
From the rolling hills of Michigan’s countryside, we head to the rolling hills of wine country in the heart of the Napa valley this week. Sonoma Raceway, previously known as Infineon, is a 1.99-mile circuit, at least for the NASCAR layout, and when running the 110 laps of the race at that distance, it adds up to 350 or so kilometers, and hence the number in the race name. There are 10 turns, yes 10, and not just four like every other week. There is elevation changes and a hairpin turn to end each lap. Those are just some of the challenges of Sonoma, shifting is also a huge part of the driver’s job on this track as they range in speed from 130-140 mph all the way down to 35 mph in the hairpin turn 11.
Like I said in the Track Breakdown, there is a second road course that is raced on each year in Watkins Glen, however that is a much different course. Focusing on those drivers with open-wheel racing experience is important, however those that have Kart and dirt track experience are also solid plays this week as well. In terms of laps led dominators, there have been only two races since 2007 in which a driver led 50 or more laps in a race, but that doesn’t mean it was evenly distributed in the rest of the races. Typically there are only four or five drivers that lead laps in each race, so be aware of that as well. Sonoma is one of the races that has a very high percentage of winners starting from the top-five spots with it coming in at 93% of the time.
DFS Playbook
| Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,300 | $28.00 | Truex Jr. is the most expensive driver on the board this week but has a checkered past here recently. He has shown very good speed in practice but does have a history of backing up |
| Kyle Busch | $10,200 | $27.25 | Kyle is the best driver on the track in the last two years and the only one with two wins here in the field. A fast car in practice and qualifying gets him played in cash and GPP lineups |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,900 | $27.50 | Harvick has the best positional differential in the field the last two years at +16 and starts P12 Sunday. His one top-five and two top-10s give him upside for both cash and GPP plays |
| Kurt Busch | $9,800 | $26.25 | Kurt has been much more consistent than his younger brother here with seven top-fives and eight top-10s in 16 career races here. The price makes him hard to afford this week |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,600 | $26.50 | JJ has a good history here and has averaged a top-10 finish in the last two years. However he hasn't had the speed this week and his Crew Chief's race notes were stolen as well |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $9,500 | $15.00 | Allmendinger always looks good in practice and qualifying here but then when the race comes he backs up through the field. He is strictly a GPP only play and especially at this price |
| Clint Bowyer | $9,400 | $22.50 | Bowyer leads the field in top-10 finishes here with eight in 11 career races here. His consistency is why he is priced here but his practice and qualifying runs give him upside still |
| Kyle Larson | $9,300 | $27.75 | Larson has led the way in one practice and is on the pole, which is a big get here. In the past he has backed up but this year he is a different driver. He should be a must play Sunday |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $8,100 | $17.50 | Dale has been shaky this year to say the least but did log a ninth place finish last week and ran 3rd and 5th in practice. He has a very good history here and can be played in either |
| Kasey Kahne | $8,000 | $19.50 | Kahne has been a sneaky good driver here the last two years with 8th and 9th place finishes. He ran as well as 11th in practice but starts in the mid-20s. He has GPP upside on Sunday |
| Matt Kenseth | $7,500 | $25.25 | Kenseth typically isn't someone I look at playing here but this week he starts P40 due to an unapproved change. He did run 28th in both practices and offers PD upside in GPPs |
| Austin Dillon | $7,100 | $20.75 | Dillon has a very good history of moving through the field here in the last couple of races and starts P19 this week. If he sneaks into the top-10 that's big points upside for your roster |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $6,700 | $17.00 | Stenhouse moves up about 11 spots on average over the past two races. He ran third in the first practice and qualified P22. He is a positional play for sure but it could pay off big |
| Danica Patrick | $5,800 | $9.25 | Everyone knows Danica came from Indycar so it makes sense to have her on the list. She also has shown top-10 speed in practice and qualifying this week. She is still a GPP only play |
| Alon Day | $4,700 | $7.50 | Alon Day is making his debut in MENCS this Sunday. However his experience is from Formula 1 and NASCAR Wheelen Europe where he has won more than a dozen races in his career |
Optimal Lineups
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kyle Busch | $10,200 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,900 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,300 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $8,100 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,100 |
| Alon Day | $4,700 |
| Total | $49,300 |
The cash game lineup this week is made up of familiar names that still offer good upside across the board. Harvick, Earnhardt Jr., and Dillon give positional differential upside and the two Kyle’s give you laps led chances and two drivers starting in the top-five. Day is making his debut but has road course experience and ran 23rd in the second practice then qualified 31st.
Pivots: Putting Clint Bowyer ($9,400) and Jamie McMurray ($8,500) in for Larson and Earnhardt Jr. gives you the same consistency and upside plays as the original lineup as well.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,300 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,800 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $9,500 |
| Kasey Kahne | $8,000 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,200 |
| Danica Patrick | $5,800 |
| Total | $49,600 |
The GPP lineup is a lot of drivers that have shown upside this week but generally haven’t translated it to the race. Truex Jr., Allmendinger, Buescher, and Patrick all have very spotty records here but have the speed to put it all together this week. Busch and Kahne offer consistency in the middle of the lineup to balance it out.
| Draft Kings GPP #2 | |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,300 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,200 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,300 |
| Kasey Kahne | $8,000 |
| Paul Menard | $7,400 |
| Alon Day | $4,700 |
| Total | $49,900 |
The second GPP has three of the top four qualifiers in it along with two drivers providing a history of moving through the field in Kahne and Menard. The goal for this lineup is to capitalize on all of the laps led with Truex Jr., Busch, and Larson while getting solid points from the other drivers. Alon Day is the budget play in a guy with experience on road courses and showed well in practice as well.
| NASCAR Live | |
| Kyle Larson | $27.75 |
| Kyle Busch | $27.25 |
| Clint Bowyer | $22.50 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $15.00 |
| Alon Day | $7.50 |
| Bonus Winner | Kyle Busch |
| Bonus Manufacturer | Toyota |
| Total | $100.00 |
It’s a familiar cast of characters in the NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup with all five drivers being previously used in the other three lineups. There is a mix of consistency and GPP upside in the five-driver mix. However if you want to swap out of Clint Bowyer, guys like Dale Jr., Kasey Kahne, and Kurt Busch are all cheaper than Bowyer this week.
| Streak To The Finish | Clint Bowyer |
Bowyer has the highest percentage of Top-10 finishes in his career at Sonoma in the field so he’s the obvious choice for Streak to the Finish.