Anyone in the mood for wine and cheese this weekend? No? It’s the perfect food and drink for the setting of this week’s race in Sonoma. The turns and changes in elevation, and oh yeah the grapes, can only mean one thing. A road course is on tap. This course is different than any we have talked about before this season as it has right turns as well as left in addition to blind corners and up and down hill sections. Oh, it is similar in one way…the number in the name of the race refers to kilometers, just like at Phoenix. Typically those races with open wheel racing experience are better plays, though not always the case as you’ll see in the numbers. One other thing to keep in mind as you look through the data is this: The other road course, Watkins Glen, is completely different from this course. So take those numbers with a slight grain of salt.

Track Data

 Avg.Avg.     Laps  HighLow Avg.DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Kyle Busch9.5421122190170114.15.54.752.38
Joey Logano134202220035095.6900.00
Kurt Busch36201224302100114.4-310.755.38
Kevin Harvick2152012230460104.9160.750.38
Denny Hamlin10.51020112330218092.80.58.254.13
Clint Bowyer1221.52011140340168.8-9.510.50
Martin Truex Jr.7.523.52011100542191.3-1600.00
Kasey Kahne22.58.5200220089093.91400.00
Ryan Newman16.58.5200220089087.8800.00
Jimmie Johnson149.5200124506130105.64.511.255.63
Dale Earnhardt Jr.16.5920012007110105.47.500.00
Paul Menard20.514.520002301316073.260.750.38
Kyle Larson4.513.520002001215097.9-900.00
Jamie McMurray19.514200020011170745.500.00
Brad Keselowski111720002001519075.1-600.00
A.J. Allmendinger1.525.52000121114370104.1-245.252.63
Danica Patrick1621.520001301924065.7-5.50.750.38
Austin Dillon30.519.520001001722063.71100.00
Matt Kenseth1320.520001002021071.1-7.500.00
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.33.52320001002026054.610.500.00
Chase Elliott162110000002121067.7-500.00
Ryan Blaney262310000002323063.2300.00
Trevor Bayne29.524200000023250515.500.00
Boris Said332610000002626043700.00
Cole Whitt322820000002234050400.00
Matt DiBenedetto31.53020000002931041.21.500.00
Chris Buescher363010000003030043.3600.00
Landon Cassill3832.520000002936036.25.500.00
David Ragan19.535.520000003239155.7-1600.00
Michael McDowell21.536.520000003439147.6-1500.00
Daniel Suarez0000000000000000.00
Erik Jones0000000000000000.00
Billy Johnson0000000000000000.00
Kevin O'Connell0000000000000000.00
Alon Day0000000000000000.00
Josh Bilicki0000000000000000.00
Tommy Regan0000000000000000.00

Top-15 Drivers at Sonoma Historically

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFPts.Pts.Pts./race
Kyle Busch15.818.0812224710701400-2.2826.752.23
Kurt Busch8.914.5161781019711360-5.649.253.08
Clint Bowyer15.811.4511168982014014.3520.51.86
Jimmie Johnson16.312.471514913131013613.8332.752.18
Kasey Kahne14.517.461312684121410-2.9610.250.79
Martin Truex Jr.14.919.551112366701422-4.6516.751.52
Kevin Harvick16.314.56160471236023701.7490.56
Ryan Newman12.712.33150271411022500.372.750.18
Joey Logano11.412.88802471813330-1.484.50.56
Denny Hamlin18.120.821102358102371-2.7220.251.84
Jamie McMurray13.616.2914022124132370-2.6910.250.73
Dale Earnhardt Jr.20.518.9417012109034211.562.250.13
Casey Mears24.320.621301275053813.681.250.10
Paul Menard18.818901163053400.80.750.08
Boris Said1921.881600581016423-2.882.50.16

Top-15 Drivers at Road Courses (Last Two Years)

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow  DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Joey Logano12.32.754144490150103.89.552.250.56
Kyle Busch8441244260170117.346.51.63
Denny Hamlin101241223430127092.8-210.752.69
Kurt Busch9.37402344602110102.12.311.52.88
Kevin Harvick15.311.25402333203321104.64.0582.00
Brad Keselowski11.31140124550319094.70.313.753.44
Clint Bowyer17.516.754012340340174.10.7510.25
Matt Kenseth1413.754012320421083.20.250.50.13
Martin Truex Jr.7.819.754012260542193.9-11.951.50.38
A.J. Allmendinger3.319.7540112422437098.7-16.4510.52.63
Ryan Newman15.3124002400816078.63.300.00
Jimmie Johnson12.517.2540023450640188.1-4.7511.252.81
Kasey Kahne22.819.754002300842071.43.0500.00
Dale Earnhardt Jr.13.39.6730013007110105.23.6300.00
Jamie McMurray16.5194001300840074-2.500.00

Drivers to watch this week:

Kyle Busch: Busch has the only win in the field since 2013 when Martin Truex Jr. won at Sonoma. On top of that, he has the most wins, two, in the field in his career as well. Busch has the highest average finish in the field over the last two years, though it’s only two races. He is still searching for his first win of the year (in a points race) and he could very well get it this weekend.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick, while known for being one of the fastest drivers on the track, also does well with the technical driving needed at Sonoma. He has the best positional differential in the field at +16 over the last two races and has the second-best average finish (14.56) over the last 16 races here. Harvick is the best driver in the field to have not yet won at Sonoma and he still needs a win this year to make the Chase.

Joey Logano: Logano is tied with Kyle for the best average finish over the last two races at fourth but also has moved up nine spots on average over that span. In eight career races here he has four top-10 finishes and average finish just outside the top-10 at 12.88. He is also the only driver in the field this week with two top-five finishes in the last two years here. More of that consistency should be on tap for Sunday.

Kasey Kahne: Kahne is an unassuming pick here but he has the second-best positional differential in the field over the last two years at +14 with two top-10 finishes too. He has a win in 13 races at Sonoma along with 41 laps led, which means more here with fewer laps per race. Kahne maybe a sleeper pick, depending on how practices and qualifying go on Friday and Saturday.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer was a play of mine last year, in the cash lineup, given his stellar history at the track. However that went up in smoke, literally, when an ignition fire took him out of the race in the first few laps. Even including last year’s poor showing, he still has eight top-10 finishes in his 11 races at the track. An average finish of 11.45 is the best over that span and he has led 82 laps. Assuming his car is fine on Sunday, he should have a good chance for finishing in or near the top-five again.