Anyone in the mood for wine and cheese this weekend? No? It’s the perfect food and drink for the setting of this week’s race in Sonoma. The turns and changes in elevation, and oh yeah the grapes, can only mean one thing. A road course is on tap. This course is different than any we have talked about before this season as it has right turns as well as left in addition to blind corners and up and down hill sections. Oh, it is similar in one way…the number in the name of the race refers to kilometers, just like at Phoenix. Typically those races with open wheel racing experience are better plays, though not always the case as you’ll see in the numbers. One other thing to keep in mind as you look through the data is this: The other road course, Watkins Glen, is completely different from this course. So take those numbers with a slight grain of salt.
Track Data
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Kyle Busch | 9.5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 114.1 | 5.5 | 4.75 | 2.38 |
Joey Logano | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 95.6 | 9 | 0 | 0.00 |
Kurt Busch | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 114.4 | -3 | 10.75 | 5.38 |
Kevin Harvick | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 104.9 | 16 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
Denny Hamlin | 10.5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 92.8 | 0.5 | 8.25 | 4.13 |
Clint Bowyer | 12 | 21.5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 68.8 | -9.5 | 1 | 0.50 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 7.5 | 23.5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 91.3 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 |
Kasey Kahne | 22.5 | 8.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 93.9 | 14 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ryan Newman | 16.5 | 8.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 87.8 | 8 | 0 | 0.00 |
Jimmie Johnson | 14 | 9.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 105.6 | 4.5 | 11.25 | 5.63 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 16.5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 105.4 | 7.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Paul Menard | 20.5 | 14.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 16 | 0 | 73.2 | 6 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
Kyle Larson | 4.5 | 13.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 97.9 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 |
Jamie McMurray | 19.5 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 74 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Brad Keselowski | 11 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 19 | 0 | 75.1 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 |
A.J. Allmendinger | 1.5 | 25.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 0 | 104.1 | -24 | 5.25 | 2.63 |
Danica Patrick | 16 | 21.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 65.7 | -5.5 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
Austin Dillon | 30.5 | 19.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 0 | 63.7 | 11 | 0 | 0.00 |
Matt Kenseth | 13 | 20.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 21 | 0 | 71.1 | -7.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33.5 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 26 | 0 | 54.6 | 10.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Chase Elliott | 16 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 67.7 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ryan Blaney | 26 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 63.2 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 |
Trevor Bayne | 29.5 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 25 | 0 | 51 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Boris Said | 33 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Cole Whitt | 32 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 34 | 0 | 50 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 31.5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 31 | 0 | 41.2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Chris Buescher | 36 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 43.3 | 6 | 0 | 0.00 |
Landon Cassill | 38 | 32.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 36 | 0 | 36.2 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
David Ragan | 19.5 | 35.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 39 | 1 | 55.7 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 |
Michael McDowell | 21.5 | 36.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 39 | 1 | 47.6 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 |
Daniel Suarez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Erik Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Billy Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Kevin O'Connell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Alon Day | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Josh Bilicki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Tommy Regan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top-15 Drivers at Sonoma Historically
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Kyle Busch | 15.8 | 18.08 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 107 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 0 | -2.28 | 26.75 | 2.23 |
Kurt Busch | 8.9 | 14.5 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 197 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | -5.6 | 49.25 | 3.08 |
Clint Bowyer | 15.8 | 11.45 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 82 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 4.35 | 20.5 | 1.86 |
Jimmie Johnson | 16.3 | 12.47 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 131 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 3.83 | 32.75 | 2.18 |
Kasey Kahne | 14.5 | 17.46 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 0 | -2.96 | 10.25 | 0.79 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 14.9 | 19.55 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 2 | -4.65 | 16.75 | 1.52 |
Kevin Harvick | 16.3 | 14.56 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 1.74 | 9 | 0.56 |
Ryan Newman | 12.7 | 12.33 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0.37 | 2.75 | 0.18 |
Joey Logano | 11.4 | 12.88 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 | -1.48 | 4.5 | 0.56 |
Denny Hamlin | 18.1 | 20.82 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 81 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 1 | -2.72 | 20.25 | 1.84 |
Jamie McMurray | 13.6 | 16.29 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 0 | -2.69 | 10.25 | 0.73 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 20.5 | 18.94 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 1.56 | 2.25 | 0.13 |
Casey Mears | 24.3 | 20.62 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 3.68 | 1.25 | 0.10 |
Paul Menard | 18.8 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.75 | 0.08 |
Boris Said | 19 | 21.88 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 3 | -2.88 | 2.5 | 0.16 |
Top-15 Drivers at Road Courses (Last Two Years)
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Joey Logano | 12.3 | 2.75 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 103.8 | 9.55 | 2.25 | 0.56 |
Kyle Busch | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 117.3 | 4 | 6.5 | 1.63 |
Denny Hamlin | 10 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 92.8 | -2 | 10.75 | 2.69 |
Kurt Busch | 9.3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 102.1 | 2.3 | 11.5 | 2.88 |
Kevin Harvick | 15.3 | 11.25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 104.6 | 4.05 | 8 | 2.00 |
Brad Keselowski | 11.3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 94.7 | 0.3 | 13.75 | 3.44 |
Clint Bowyer | 17.5 | 16.75 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 74.1 | 0.75 | 1 | 0.25 |
Matt Kenseth | 14 | 13.75 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 83.2 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.13 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 7.8 | 19.75 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 93.9 | -11.95 | 1.5 | 0.38 |
A.J. Allmendinger | 3.3 | 19.75 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 98.7 | -16.45 | 10.5 | 2.63 |
Ryan Newman | 15.3 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 78.6 | 3.3 | 0 | 0.00 |
Jimmie Johnson | 12.5 | 17.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 6 | 40 | 1 | 88.1 | -4.75 | 11.25 | 2.81 |
Kasey Kahne | 22.8 | 19.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 71.4 | 3.05 | 0 | 0.00 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 13.3 | 9.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 105.2 | 3.63 | 0 | 0.00 |
Jamie McMurray | 16.5 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 74 | -2.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Kyle Busch: Busch has the only win in the field since 2013 when Martin Truex Jr. won at Sonoma. On top of that, he has the most wins, two, in the field in his career as well. Busch has the highest average finish in the field over the last two years, though it’s only two races. He is still searching for his first win of the year (in a points race) and he could very well get it this weekend.
Kevin Harvick: Harvick, while known for being one of the fastest drivers on the track, also does well with the technical driving needed at Sonoma. He has the best positional differential in the field at +16 over the last two races and has the second-best average finish (14.56) over the last 16 races here. Harvick is the best driver in the field to have not yet won at Sonoma and he still needs a win this year to make the Chase.
Joey Logano: Logano is tied with Kyle for the best average finish over the last two races at fourth but also has moved up nine spots on average over that span. In eight career races here he has four top-10 finishes and average finish just outside the top-10 at 12.88. He is also the only driver in the field this week with two top-five finishes in the last two years here. More of that consistency should be on tap for Sunday.
Kasey Kahne: Kahne is an unassuming pick here but he has the second-best positional differential in the field over the last two years at +14 with two top-10 finishes too. He has a win in 13 races at Sonoma along with 41 laps led, which means more here with fewer laps per race. Kahne maybe a sleeper pick, depending on how practices and qualifying go on Friday and Saturday.
Clint Bowyer: Bowyer was a play of mine last year, in the cash lineup, given his stellar history at the track. However that went up in smoke, literally, when an ignition fire took him out of the race in the first few laps. Even including last year’s poor showing, he still has eight top-10 finishes in his 11 races at the track. An average finish of 11.45 is the best over that span and he has led 82 laps. Assuming his car is fine on Sunday, he should have a good chance for finishing in or near the top-five again.