***UPDATE*** Daniel Suarez has been moved to the back of the field but will count as starting P20 in Draft Kings. Pivot to Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($7,800) in place of him.

FireKeepers Casino 400

Michigan International Speedway

This past Sunday saw yet another new winner in 2017 and a first time winner for their career in Ryan Blaney. He didn’t win it easy either, as he had to hold off every move Kyle Busch threw at him in the final few laps. Brake issues were the story of the day as several drivers including the entire Hendrick Motor Sports team had issues with brakes. Jimmie Johnson and Jamie McMurray both lost their brakes at the same time entering Turn One and wrecked hard. Lucky for them and us we don’t have to see the Tricky Triangle again for five more weeks.

The Irish hills of Michigan play host to this week’s race at Michigan International Speedway. Known as the fastest track on the schedule, the D-Shaped Oval 2-mile behemoth allows for speeds consistently over 200 mph all-race long. A wide racing surface, a near constant banking keep the speeds up. Corners banked at a modest 18 degrees, front stretch banked at 12 degrees, and the back straightaway banked at just five degrees give the drivers the chance to not worry about shifting, but instead just putting the pedal to the floor and pounding the pavement as fast as possible. M.I.S. is considered the sister track to Texas World Speedway and the basis for Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, which give us good comparison points for added input to build the lineups.

Previous June races here, dating back to 2011, have only seen one race with one driver leading more than 100 laps in a race, Joey Logano last year with 138, and only one other time has some one led more than 70 laps, Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2012 with 95. So there will be a fair amount of lead changes, if the trend holds true. The other thing to consider is that there are only an average of five cautions per race at Michigan, leading to better than 85% of laps being run under green all-time. Chase Elliott has the best Driver Rating at the track over the last three years as well as the best average finish, though he has only raced here last year. Generally at Michigan, 84% of winners have come from the top-five starting positions at the beginning of the race.

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Kyle Larson$10,200$27.50Shocker: Larson is fast again this week. He is the pole sitter and was top-three in two practices.He has a win, two top-fives, two top-10s and 49 laps led in the last four races. Either
Martin Truex Jr.$10,000$28.00Truex, like Larson has been top-four in two practices and starts P2 by .007 seconds. Truex has two top-fives and two top-10s in the last four races. Either format works to play him
Kevin Harvick$9,900$27.75Harvick has been very quick in practices and qualifying this week. He has three top-fives in four races and 111 laps led. He is a great GPP play with upside and a solid cash play pivot
Jimmie Johnson$9,800$26.75JJ is only a GPP play this week. He has very fast practice times but is starting in the back of the field in a back up car after qualifying P13. Johnson only has one top-10 in four races
Brad Keselowski$9,700$27.25Keselowski has never won here but is one of only two drivers with four straight top-10 finishes. +7 gives him one of the best differentials in the field and makes him a cash game play
Kyle Busch$9,500$27.00It's another week that Kyle comes in with a lot of speed but not great history at the track. He has backed up nearly 18 spots an average and hasn't finished better than 11th. GPP play
Chase Elliott$9,400$26.75Elliott, as said earlier, has the best average finsih in the field and driver rating. Two straight runner-up finishes give him upside but iffy speed this week makes him a GPP play Sunday
Joey Logano$9,200$26.25Logano has led the most laps here in the last three years and the last two in addition to winning this race a year ago. He has another good car based on practice times. Cash or GPP
Ryan Blaney$8,700$19.75Blaney is fresh off his first win last week at Pocono and is fast again this week in practice. Blaney has tended to back up 8 spots or so but does have a top-four finish in the last four
Denny Hamlin$8,600$26.50Hamlin ran 11th, 14th, and 10th in practice but qualifed P5. His last four races haven't been great but he has won twice here and did win the Xfintity race on Saturday at Michigan
Erik Jones$8,000$20.25Jones is racing in his home state and ran 15th, 8th, and 5th in practice before qualifying 14th. Jones has been in the running to win the last few weeks and should factor once again
Daniel Suarez$7,500$19.00Suarez hasn't run at Michigan before in the MENCS but did race to a win at the track in the Xfinity series. He has been showing top-10 speed most of the week and works for either
Clint Bowyer$6,800$21.25Bowyer is an interesting case this week. His practice times are just outside the top-10 but he qualified P3. He has a top-10 finish in his last four races. If his P3 holds, big upside here
Trevor Bayne$6,400$19.50Bayne has a top-10 finish in the last four races here and has flashed top-20 speed at practice. He starts P27 and stands to move up 10+ spots during the race to give PD upside in GPP
Cole Whitt$4,900$6.00Whitt is a budget-play who happens to own one of the better positional differentials in the field over the last four races. Not much more than a mid-pack finish is expected from him

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Kyle Larson$10,200
Brad Keselowski$9,700
Joey Logano$9,200
Erik Jones$8,000
Daniel Suarez$7,500
Cole Whitt$4,900
  
Total$49,500

This week’s cash lineup is built around consistent practice times and some upside in qualifying spots. Kyle Larson ($10,200) leads it off as the pole sitter and with having two top-three finishes at practices as well. He won the last time they raced at Michigan as well. Brad Keselowski ($9,700) and Joey Logano ($9,200) are next in the grouping being the only two players with four straight top-10 finishes at the track as well as bringing consistent practice times. Erik Jones ($8,000), Daniel Suarez ($7,500), and Cole Whitt ($4,900) finish off the roster with some upside rookies and a budget-play for positional differential. Jones and Suarez each have good history here in Xfinity cars and have shown speed this week.

***Pivot*** Kevin Harvick ($9,900) for Brad Keselowski ($9,700)

Draft Kings GPP 
Martin Truex Jr.$10,000
Jimmie Johnson$9,800
Kyle Busch$9,500
Chase Elliott$9,400
Trevor Bayne$6,400
Cole Whitt$4,900
  
Total$50,000

The first GPP roster is anchored by four big names in Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000), Jimmie Johnson ($9,800), Kyle Busch ($9,500), and Chase Elliott ($9,400). Each one brings some risk to the equation with Truex starting second having the least. JJ qualified 13th but will start at the back of the field after going to a backup car, Kyle has speed but has a shaky history here and Chase has a good history but shaky speed this week. Overall however they posses quite a bit of upside as a group of four. Trevor Bayne ($6,400) and Cole Whitt ($4,900) finish off the  roster with two guys that have positional differential upside and Bayne could sneak a top-10 finish in as well.

Draft Kings GPP #2 
Kyle Larson$10,200
Kevin Harvick$9,900
Brad Keselowski$9,700
Denny Hamlin$8,600
Clint Bowyer$6,800
Ryan Seig$4,800
  
Total$50,000

The second GPP lineup starts with Kyle Larson ($10,200), Kevin Harvick ($9,900), and Brad Keselowski ($9,700) at the top. Harvick has three top-five finishes in the last four races but has some work to do to get there on Sunday. Denny Hamlin ($8,600), Clint Bowyer ($6,800), and Ryan Seig ($4,800) finish off the roster. Hamlin is a two-time winner here but has a checkered last four races, he did however win the Xfinity race on Saturday. Bowyer starts P3 on Sunday but hasn’t shown that same speed in practice. He does have a top-10 finish in the last four races. Seig is a part-time driver but has scored well in the races he has driven in.

NASCAR Live 
Martin Truex Jr.$28.00
Kyle Larson$27.50
Erik Jones$20.25
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$18.25
Cole Whitt$6.00
Bonus WinnerBrad Keselowski
Bonus ManufacturerFord
  
Total$100.00

The NASCAR Fantasy Live roster is made from four of five drivers we’ve talked about before and adds a fifth. Dale Earnahardt Jr. ($18.25) is a rare play this week considering his season thus far. He ran the seventh best average time in final practice and qualified well. He has pretty good history at the track as a two-time winner and won’t be plagued by the shifting issues from last week.

Streak To The FinishJoey Logano

Logano is one of only two drivers in the field with four straight top-10s at Michigan which makes him a great choice this week.