The FireKeepers Casino 400 comes rolling into the hills of southeastern Michigan this week at Michigan International Speedway. It is a 2-mile long D-shaped oval that is known to be the fastest track on the schedule. The wide racing surface and the nearly consistent banking around the track allow drivers to hold speeds in excess of 200 mph completely around the track. It is also the sister track to Texas World Speedway and a model for Auto Club Speedway in California. Two drivers consider Michigan to be their home tracks on the schedule with Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones both hailing from Michigan originally.
Track Data
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Joey Logano | 5.8 | 5.75 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 169 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 112.9 | 0.05 | 42.25 | 10.56 |
| Matt Kenseth | 11.3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 157 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 106.8 | 3.3 | 39.25 | 9.81 |
| Kyle Larson | 17.3 | 8.5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 105.2 | 8.8 | 12.25 | 3.06 |
| Kurt Busch | 19 | 10.75 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 89.1 | 8.25 | 1.5 | 0.38 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10.5 | 10.25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 111 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 113 | 0.25 | 27.75 | 6.94 |
| Brad Keselowski | 12.5 | 5.5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 105.1 | 7 | 7.5 | 1.88 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 11.8 | 9.5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 103.6 | 2.3 | 4.25 | 1.06 |
| Chase Elliott | 7.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 125.2 | 5.5 | 16.5 | 8.25 |
| Austin Dillon | 9 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 90.3 | -3 | 5 | 1.25 |
| Denny Hamlin | 5.5 | 14.5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 94.4 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 16.7 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 82.6 | -0.3 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| Ryan Blaney | 9 | 17.25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 84.6 | -8.25 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jamie McMurray | 16.3 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 81 | 6.3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Newman | 14 | 13.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 84.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.13 |
| Paul Menard | 23.3 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 79.6 | 9.3 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 8.5 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 87.6 | -11.5 | 10.25 | 2.56 |
| Trevor Bayne | 20.5 | 17.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 65.8 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Clint Bowyer | 26.3 | 28.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 0 | 66.5 | -2.2 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| Kasey Kahne | 11.5 | 14.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 0 | 84.4 | -2.75 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| Kyle Busch | 10.3 | 28.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 2 | 72.3 | -17.95 | 2.5 | 0.63 |
| Danica Patrick | 22.5 | 21.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 25 | 0 | 59.1 | 1.25 | 0.5 | 0.13 |
| Ty Dillon | 21.5 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 0 | 73.7 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 25.5 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 38 | 1 | 57.3 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| David Ragan | 24.5 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 35 | 0 | 51.3 | -1.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buescher | 21.5 | 27.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 35 | 0 | 45.8 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 25.3 | 26.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 29 | 0 | 56.1 | -1.45 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 37 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 34 | 0 | 40.8 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael McDowell | 35 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 39.5 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 30.3 | 32.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 39 | 1 | 42.6 | -2.45 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Reed Sorenson | 39.5 | 33.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 36 | 0 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 35 | 33.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 39 | 1 | 36.8 | 1.25 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 39 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 1 | 27.6 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Timmy Hill | 43 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 1 | 23.2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Suarez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Erik Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Sieg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Corey LaJoie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top-15 Drivers at Michigan Historically
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Matt Kenseth | 17.1 | 10.37 | 35 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 33 | 443 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 106.8 | 110.75 | 3.16 |
| Kurt Busch | 12.8 | 19.97 | 32 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 445 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 8 | 72.3 | 111.25 | 3.48 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 14.7 | 15.76 | 34 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 355 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 4 | 90.3 | 88.75 | 2.61 |
| Denny Hamlin | 13.4 | 15.18 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 146 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 3 | 103.6 | 36.5 | 1.66 |
| Ryan Newman | 13.3 | 16.68 | 31 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 113 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 81 | 28.25 | 0.91 |
| Joey Logano | 11.9 | 12.63 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 356 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 89.1 | 89 | 5.56 |
| Kevin Harvick | 16.3 | 12.66 | 32 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 26 | 337 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 113 | 84.25 | 2.63 |
| Kasey Kahne | 11.9 | 15.62 | 26 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 67 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 125.2 | 16.75 | 0.64 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 9.5 | 16.43 | 30 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 674 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 94.4 | 168.5 | 5.62 |
| Kyle Busch | 14.1 | 20.42 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 182 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 59.1 | 45.5 | 1.90 |
| Kyle Larson | 15.7 | 14.17 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 105.1 | 12.75 | 2.13 |
| Brad Keselowski | 16.5 | 12.33 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 73 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 105.2 | 18.25 | 1.22 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 14.4 | 16.45 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 82.6 | 20.75 | 0.94 |
| Paul Menard | 21.7 | 17.57 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 87.6 | 4 | 0.19 |
| Chase Elliott | 7.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 112.9 | 16.5 | 8.25 |
Top-15 Drivers at 2-mile Tracks
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Kyle Larson | 15.3 | 14.29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 159 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 96.8 | 1.01 | 39.75 | 5.68 |
| Joey Logano | 11.4 | 5.57 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 173 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 109.7 | 5.83 | 43.25 | 6.18 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10.9 | 4.86 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 101.4 | 6.04 | 7.75 | 1.11 |
| Kurt Busch | 16.9 | 14.29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 71 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 83 | 2.61 | 17.75 | 2.54 |
| Matt Kenseth | 10.6 | 16.86 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 97.5 | -6.26 | 50.5 | 7.21 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 14.9 | 15.86 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 92.7 | -0.96 | 16.5 | 2.36 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7.6 | 8.29 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 287 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 112.4 | -0.69 | 71.75 | 10.25 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 11.4 | 11.71 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 116 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 105.7 | -0.31 | 29 | 4.14 |
| Chase Elliott | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 117.1 | 4 | 17.75 | 4.44 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4.7 | 14.71 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 96.4 | -10.01 | 15.5 | 2.21 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 18.7 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 84.4 | 4.7 | 0.25 | 0.04 |
| Ryan Newman | 10.6 | 12.57 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 82.7 | -1.97 | 0.5 | 0.07 |
| Austin Dillon | 9.9 | 14.14 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 85.8 | -4.24 | 5 | 0.71 |
| Paul Menard | 20 | 14.71 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 77.4 | 5.29 | 0.75 | 0.11 |
| Clint Bowyer | 23 | 23.57 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 71.8 | -0.57 | 0.25 | 0.04 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Kyle Larson: Is the most expensive driver this week at $10,200 in Draft Kings as he’s coming to a place that saw him get his first win a year ago. He has two top-fives, two top-10s and 49 laps led to go along with that win, in addition to having the second-best positional differential in the field at +8.8 over the last four races here. Larson has been arguably the best driver in the field at 2-mile races the last two and half seasons and could very well be again on Sunday..jpg)
Brad Keselowski: As mentioned earlier, this is Brad’s home track and he always has a big contingent of friends and family in the stands when they come back to the track. He doesn’t have a win here in 15 races but he does have the second-best average finish in that span of 12.33 and has the best average finish over the last four races as well at 5.5. Keselowski, and another driver on this list, are the only two to have four straight top-10s here as well. The consistency he shows combined with wanting to show what his Ford number-2 car can do in Ford’s home state make him a cash game play.
Chase Elliott: Chase has just one season of races under his fire suit here, but he did remarkably well at Michigan last year. The youngster had two runner-up finishes while leading a combined 66 laps and moving up 5.5 spots on average. That isn’t a great sample size but when you also factor in the races at Auto Club, the only other 2-mile track on the schedule, he didn’t finish worse than 10th in four total races between the two tracks. This year he hasn’t quite had that speed thus far, so qualifying and practice will determine how to play him.
Joey Logano: Logano is the other driver to have four straight top-10s at Michigan, in addition to winning and leading 169 laps in that span. He has the second-best average finish of 5.75 over the last two years here and is in the running for best 2-mile racer in the field. With a driver rating of 112.9, he ranks third (barely) in the field in that too. Logano has won the pole twice so that shouldn’t stop you from playing him even in cash game formats.
Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has a win, two top-fives, two top-10s, and the second most laps led with 157 over the last four races at Michigan. He also is a three-time winner in 35 races with 14 top-fives, 20 top-10s, and an astonishing 33 top-20s. That being said, there has been a run of tracks that Kenseth has been good at previously in which he has disappointed with just one 50+ point race in the last five. So if you are playing him this week, keep that in mind.