Axalta presents the Pocono 400

Pocono Raceway

Last weekend saw Jimmie Johnson notch his 11th win at Dover after a late race restart went his way over Kyle Larson. That doesn’t mean it was a smooth last lap, as most of the field was involved in a crash on the backstretch that was triggered when Ty Dillon got loose and spun into the wall.  Now that the Monster Mile is out of the way until later in the season, the tests don’t get any easier this week.

To the rolling, sleepy, hills of Eastern Pennsylvania we head for the Pocono 400 at Pocono Raceway. Known as the “Tricky Triangle,” the three-turn track is arguably the hardest test for the teams on the schedule. Drivers are at the mercy of their teams this week as the cars need to be setup flawlessly to handle the three different turns on the track. Right off the bat it’s challenging because of the three turns, not four, but that’s not the only part. Each turn is different. Turn One is banked at 14 degrees, turn Two is banked at eight degrees, and turn Three is shallower still at just six degrees. Each one was based off a different track in the Trenton Speedway, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and the Milwaukee Mile.

It’s not just the turns that are challenging however, the straightaways are impressively wide, with five-wide racing possible and likely, but they are also very long. The front-stretch at Pocono is 3,700+-feet long; the longest of any track, and can have an effect on the drafting of nearby cars and the driver’s ability to get the right angle on the first turn.

Like other superspeedways on the schedule, it is rare to have a laps led dominator. For one, there simply aren’t many laps run in these races since the track distance is so long. But for another, the style of racing that happens during the race leads to more cars changing spots than smaller tracks. A perfect example of this is the fact that Joey Logano is the leader in laps led over the past six races with 182 out of 960 run. Unlike Charlotte where Martin Truex Jr. has led nearly 700 of 800 laps run, Pocono only allows for 20% of the laps to be led by one driver. Keep that in mind when building a lineup. In addition, also keep in mind that 87% of eventual winners start in the top-five here.

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Martin Truex Jr.$10,300$28.00Truex starts P2 on Sunday but he hasn't been consistent in practice this week. He does have a race win under his belt here but that's his only top-10 in the last four tries. GPP mostly
Brad Keselowski$10,100$27.25Keselowski has been the most consistent driver in the last four races with three top-fives. He also has another fast car this week and won the Xfinity race. Both cash and GPP work
Jimmie Johnson$10,000$27.00J.J. is fresh off an historic win at Dover and has upside again this week. In the last four he has a top-five and two top-10s, historically though he's a three time winner. Either works
Kyle Larson$9,900$27.50Larson has been one of the fastest cars on the track through practice and qualifying, and owns the best average finish of 8.83 over his six races at the track. Cash or GPP play Sunday
Kyle Busch$9,700$27.00Kyle has the fastest car this week through practice and qualifying. He starts on the pole and ran 1st and 2nd in practice. Overall he has just two top-10s in the last four with one pole
Kevin Harvick$9,600$27.75Harvick's numbers of late are very similar to those of Keselowski's except he has 58 laps led to Keselowski's 11. Running top-five in practice gives upside to his P12 starting spot
Chase Elliott$9,300$26.50Elliott will start P25 on Sunday but has run as well as 4th in practice and has a top-five finish to his credit here. If his practice speed shows up, he could move up through the field
Joey Logano$9,100$26.75Logano has led the most laps here over the last four races with 152 spent up front. He has two top-fives in the last four and has a win here in the past. He will start P9 on Sunday
Denny Hamlin$8,900$26.25Hamlin has the most wins here of anyone in the field with four. But none have come recently. In the last four races he has just two top-10s and two laps led. He is strictly a GPP play
Kurt Busch$8,200$21.00Kurt scored a win here at this race last year and has shown a very good car this week again. He has three career wins here with 13 top-fives as well. He should be in any lineup
Jamie McMurray$8,100$23.25McMurray has a top-10,  four top-20s in the last four races here. Including Indy he hasn't finished outside the top-20 in the last six races at the distance. Has top-10 speed this week
Kasey Kahne$7,700$20.50Kahne has a good history here with two wins and nine top-10s but recently he has been shaky. Kahne starts P26 on Sunday and has run ninth at practice. He is a GPP only play
Ty Dillon$6,800$14.75Ty Dillon is my sleeper this week. He has the best positional differential in the field at +9 and has finished 18th and 21st in his two races. Coming off a near top-five last week
Cole Whitt$5,700$5.75Whitt has very solid positional differential upside at Pocono with a +7.3 mark over the last four races. He is really nothing more than a budget-play with solid upside though
Michael McDowell$5,000$10.00McDowell is a big budget play who is starting P11 this week, but hasn't shown that same speed in practice. If he can hold onto his spot, he has big point potential for a cheap driver

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Brad Keselowski$10,100
Jimmie Johnson$10,000
Kyle Larson$9,900
Kurt Busch$8,200
Ty Dillon$6,800
Michael McDowell$5,000
  
Total$50,000

The cash lineup this week is led off by Brad Keselowski ($10,100), Jimmie Johnson ($10,000), and Kyle Larson ($9,900). The three of them combine for a potent kick to the top of the roster and all have shown top-end speed at practice while also giving some upside with starting position. Kurt Busch ($8,200) is next up as his bona fides were described in the playbook, he has been one of if not the most consistent driver on the track and his price is too hard to turn down. Ty Dillon ($6,800) and Michael McDowell ($5,000) finish it off with upside budget plays but also guys who have top-20 finishes in their history here.

*Pivot for Cash: Swap Kyle Busch ($9,700) and Kevin Harvick ($9,600) in for Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson and then swap Cole Whitt in for Michael McDowell.

Draft Kings GPP 
Martin Truex Jr.$10,300
Jimmie Johnson$10,000
Chase Elliott$9,300
Kasey Kahne$7,700
Ty Dillon$6,800
Cole Whitt$5,700
  
Total$49,800

The first GPP is a higher risk group of six than the cash lineup starting with Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300), Jimmie Johnson ($10,000), and Chase Elliott ($9,300). Truex has a win here in the last four races but hasn’t shown well in the other three trips to the Triangle. JJ is a former three-time winner here but like Truex doesn’t have a great recent history. Chase has a top-five in the last two races but has been iffy with speed this week. Kasey Kahne ($7,700), Ty Dillon ($6,800), and Cole Whitt ($5,700) finish off the group of six. Kahne is a two-time winner previously and has shown some flashes of speed this week, but has been subpar all season. Ty has the best positional differential in the field this week at +9 over the last four races. Whitt has the second-best positional differential in the field at +7.3, giving a nice one-two punch at the bottom of the lineup.

Draft Kings GPP #2 
Kyle Busch$9,700
Kevin Harvick$9,600
Joey Logano$9,100
Denny Hamlin$8,900
A.J. Allmendinger$6,900
Cole Whitt$5,700
  
Total$49,900

The second GPP is a bit of a combo between consistency and upside with Kyle Busch ($9,700), Kevin Harvick ($9,600), Joey Logano ($9,100), and Denny Hamlin ($8,900) anchoring the top of the lineup. Kyle is the pole-sitter but that makes for a risky play, especially given his history here, while Harvick has been very consistent through practice and qualifying. Logano is the laps led leader over the last two and three years here but has yet to win at the Triangle, and Denny is the wins leader with four but has been up and down this year quite a bit. A.J. Allmendinger ($6,900) and Cole Whitt ($5,700) finish off the lineup. Allmendinger has a solid +4.55 PD to go with a top-10 and three top-20s in the last four giving consistency and Whitt gives a PD boost as well.

NASCAR Live 
Kyle Larson$27.50
Jimmie Johnson$27.00
Chase Elliott$26.50
Michael McDowell$10.00
Cole Whitt$5.75
Bonus WinnerKyle Larson
Bonus ManufacturerChevy
  
Total$96.75

The NASCAR Fantasy Live group of five combines drivers previously talked about and gives a nice GPP style upside. Larson, Johnson, and Elliott will anchor the grouping and should carry the weight with the point production while McDowell and Whitt give the same upside as they do in previous lineups.

Streak To The FinishBrad Keselowski

Keselowski has the highest average finish in the last four races and that should continue again on Sunday.

The Boom Fantasy questions are similar to what they were in previous weeks with questions focusing on stage points, laps led, total points, and finishing positions. They also ask for you to predict who gets more hits for Sunday’s Rangers/Nationals game. My advice for the Boom questions is to have an idea in your head as to how you see the race developing. That is to say, make sure you don’t answer two or three questions in counter-productive ways. If you have to root for a driver to crash or have something calamitous happen in order for your answers to be right, you haven’t answered in a well-planned fashion.