DFS NASCAR: GEICO 500 Playbook & Optimal Lineups

GEICO 500

Talladega Superspeedway

Last week capped off the run of short track races with Richmond International Raceway and with a win from Joey Logano, though it was later ruled to be encumbered. The encumbered status stems from an issue with his rear suspension and results in him losing Todd Gordon, his Crew Chief, for the next two races and the victory will not count towards him making the playoffs at the end of the year. There were several lead changes with four different drivers leading at least 25 laps and Brad Keselowski leading the way for 110 laps. Ultimately it was a rough day for several drivers including Dale Earnhardt Jr., Ryan Blaney, A.J. Allmendinger, and Erik Jones.

Down south is where the action is on Sunday as NASCAR travels to the famed and infamous Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama. Home of the “Big One” and the longest lap on the schedule, the action is fast and furious at the high-banked Tri-Oval track. The “Big One” as I have referred to is a crash that usually involves more than a dozen cars and can involve 20+ vehicles. Knowing that a huge accident looms makes picking lineups tricky but generally speaking, avoiding cars in the middle of the pack is helpful since that’s usually where the accident starts. Like Daytona, ‘Dega is a restrictor plate track in which the engines are actually inhibited to slow them down. This creates quite a bit of pack racing that can go four and five wide at times. Unlike Daytona, the track is wider and the banking is higher meaning more grooves to run and higher speeds can be carried into the turns as well.

At the short tracks we looked for laps led dominators, but dating back to the Spring race in 2011, and including the Fall races, there have only been three drivers to lead more than 80 laps in a single race. So laps led are pretty well spread throughout the field. That means we are really looking for the drivers that can stay on the track, get some laps led, but most importantly finish the race. In general, 83% of eventual winners have started in the top-five starting spots and 85% of laps all-time have been run under green flags. A disadvantage to picking the lineups this week is the fact that there were only 31 laps run of practice with the second and final practice being cancelled due to rain, and the first practice being shortened due to the same system.

With that, it’s time to dig into the plays this Sunday's GEICO 500.

DFS Playbook

Optimal Lineups

The cash lineup for ‘Dega leads off with the two most expensive drivers in the field in Joey Logano ($10,700) and Brad Keselowski ($10,500). He can we go wrong with these two’s history on the track and with the speed they are respectively showing in practice and qualifying. Kevin Harvick ($9,300) is next up, just below the elite priced drivers. His consistency here and the speed he has this week make him too hard to turn down at this price. A pair of teammates are next up in Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,200) and Trevor Bayne ($7,100) given the flat out speed they both have. Stenhouse is the pole sitter, which usually isn’t great in a cash lineup, but at this track it works, he also ran the only sub-50 second lap in qualifying. Bayne has six straight top-15 finishes this year and starts P5. Cole Whitt ($5.200) is the budget-play to round out the six-driver squad. However he does offer extreme positional differential upside with a near +20 mark in the last four races.

The first GPP squad starts with Brad Keselowski ($10,500) as the solid force at the top that his a high floor and low ceiling. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,900) and Chase Elliott ($9,200) are next up in slots two and three. Truex ran 23^rd in practice and 13^th in qualifying which indicates they may have figured something out between the sessions. Elliott was stellar here a year ago and looks to have the speed again this year, not to mention his dad, Bill, still holds the record time at the track. Clint Bowyer ($8,200), Aric Almirola ($7,000), and Cole Whitt ($5,200) finish off the GPP lineup. Bowyer had the fastest time in practice and has run well the last three weeks, while Almirola won the Xfinity race and ran ninth in practice.

The second GPP lineup leads off with Joey Logano ($10,700) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,400) who combine to give us arguably the past two current and historic drivers on the track with a combined eight wins. Ryan Blaney ($8,700) and Kurt Busch ($8,000) are the next two up from the mid-tier salaries. Blaney ran seventh in practice but has a top-five and two top-10s here previously. Busch is consistent here but has been having a rough go of it since winning at Daytona. Ricky Stenhouse ($7,200) and Cole Whitt ($5,200) again close out the tournament six-driver team.

The NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup is a mix of drivers from the previously mentioned Draft Kings squads. Joey Logano ($28.00), Brad Keselowski ($28.00), Dale Earnhart Jr. ($21.50), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($15.00), and Cole Whitt ($5.25) are the five-driver squad. Each offers a little something different in consistency of great finishes, speed this week, and being able to move through the field in proven manner.

Kurt Busch is the most consistent driver in the field over the last four races and is the only in the field with three top-10 finishes in that span.