‘Dega. It looms large every year, not just because it’s the longest track on the senior circuit at 2.66-miles, but because of the “big one” that happens every year.  The behemoth is back this week for the first of two races at the track. There are certainly those drivers who have dominated here, but with the threat of massive crashes always looming large, there is really no telling what will happen on Sunday afternoon in Alabama. As you peer through the data below, one name will continue to stand out, but that may not make him a cash game play this week, given the season he has had. Despite there being a couple of other 2+-mile tracks on the schedule, the only really comparison data comes from Daytona International Speedway since it is the other restrictor plate track.

Track Data

 Avg.Avg.     Laps  HighLow Avg.DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Joey Logano17.31542222710133188.72.317.754.44
Brad Keselowski8.816.254122213601381100.8-7.45348.50
Dale Earnhardt Jr.414.333122212801401100.9-10.333210.67
Kurt Busch14.58.54013420412091.260.50.13
Denny Hamlin10.32040122270337193.2-9.76.751.69
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.14.51440123905260740.52.250.56
Ryan Blaney11.516.754012330443185.9-5.250.750.19
Paul Menard10124012320326183.5-20.50.13
Martin Truex Jr.2316.254012321540174.46.750.50.13
Austin Dillon12.815.254012310335174.2-2.450.250.06
Jimmie Johnson7.516.2540112840223089.5-8.75215.25
Chase Elliott2.58.520112361512097.1-694.50
Kyle Busch15.714.3330112250230085.91.376.252.08
Jamie McMurray2618.254011300439183.67.7500.00
Kevin Harvick20.511.2540024140715094.99.253.50.88
Clint Bowyer27.315.754002320730071.511.550.50.13
Trevor Bayne1422.25400122201041173.8-8.255.51.38
Kyle Larson2125.254001190642173.4-4.252.250.56
Ryan Newman17.815.254001320728062.22.550.50.13
Aric Almirola25.516.54001310827170.790.250.06
A.J. Allmendinger30.519.2540013101036052.511.250.250.06
Matt Kenseth4.825.5400004302328178.1-20.710.752.69
Kasey Kahne10.531.75400012101939174-21.255.251.31
Cole Whitt3717.6730002301322057.419.330.750.25
Danica Patrick282340001302027166.550.750.19
David Ragan27.831.540000302438154.9-3.70.750.19
Michael McDowell30.721.6730001001628070.29.0300.00
Landon Cassill33.526.2540001001139156.47.2500.00
Matt DiBenedetto37.330.2540001001840143.67.0500.00
Chris Buescher32.727.6730000002237155.85.0300.00
Jeffrey Earnhardt393410000003434044.1500.00
Reed Sorenson123710000003737025.5-2500.00
Brendan Gaughan334010000004040139.8-700.00
Timmy Hill324110000004141126.4-900.00
Eric Jones0000000000000000.00
Daniel Suarez0000000000000000.00
D.J. Kennington0000000000000000.00
Elliot Saddler0000000000000000.00
Corey LaJoie0000000000000000.00
Joey Gase0000000000000000.00
Gray Gaulding0000000000000000.00

Top-15 Drivers Historically at Talladega

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFPts.Pts.Pts./race
Dale Earnhardt Jr.1515.4233612162296001426-0.422407.27
Brad Keselowski14.315.38164691018101382-1.0845.252.83
Jimmie Johnson9.817.33027111746711378-7.5116.753.89
Jamie McMurray2220.072927815242014251.9360.52.09
Clint Bowyer21.414.6822261216100014036.72251.14
Joey Logano21.318.69162468127013652.6131.751.98
Kevin Harvick22.315.0632161422187114027.2446.751.46
Matt Kenseth18.518.713416102051301425-0.21128.253.77
Denny Hamlin18.219.18221581024401394-0.98612.77
Kyle Busch20.921.3231561118101415-0.445.251.97
David Ragan2219.5201471037013942.59.250.46
Kurt Busch20.215.9132071722150033974.2937.51.17
Ryan Newman13.720.13300511178003438-6.43200.67
Kasey Kahne21.322.7326035118312424-1.4320.750.80
Paul Menard17.619.6721035124102437-2.0710.250.49

Top-15 Drivers at Restrictor Plate Tracks

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow  DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Joey Logano15.3119346612401331924.3313.44
Dale Earnhardt Jr.4.617.63824442790140399.3-13.0369.758.72
Brad Keselowski15.920.33923342540141393.8-4.4363.57.06
Denny Hamlin15.813.56914571430137196.12.2435.753.97
Kurt Busch149.138136730123090.94.870.750.09
Kevin Harvick1812.8990357650239192.25.1116.251.81
Jimmie Johnson11.317.44903351830235289.1-6.1445.755.08
Kyle Busch12.614.7170335780238186.1-2.1119.52.79
Martin Truex Jr.22.117.229024681240282.94.8820.22
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.18.4189023590531172.90.42.250.25
Ryan Blaney14.117.638023650243285-3.531.250.16
Paul Menard1816.449023620336281.31.560.50.06
Austin Dillon13.31390158170335177.60.34.250.47
Trevor Bayne16.118.7890145220341171.5-2.685.50.61
A.J. Allmendinger29.217.229012640336058.911.9810.11

Drivers to watch this week:

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: If any track could get Dale Jr. back on track, so to speak, it’s ‘Dega. In the last three races he’s run, he has a win, two top-fives, two top-10s and a 128 laps led, good for second best. Overall in 33 races here, he has six wins, 12 top-fives, and 16 top-10s, all at or near the top of the category. He has by far the most laps led on the superspeedway too. If only he was coming to the track with a better season already in tow.

Joey Logano: Logano may just be the best Restrictor Plate racer in the Monster Energy Cup Series at the moment. He has two wins here in the last four races and another at Daytona giving him three wins and four top-fives in the last nine plate races. He does have an unusually low average finish of 15.00 for a guy who has two wins at the track, but that’s thanks to a DNF and a 33rd place finish.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is one of the better drivers at plate races as well with a win, two top-fives, and two top-10s in the last four races, and the most laps led at 136. Keselowski is also the second-best historic driver at the Bama oval with four wins and nine top-10s in 16 career races. Whether or not missing his normal Crew Chief on the headset will cause issues can’t be determined yet but heading into practice, that’s the only downside here.

Chase Elliott: Chase may only have two MECS races under his fire suit at Talladega but he does have pole, a top-five and a 12th place finish in those two contests. The 36 laps led is good enough for sixth in the field despite having half as many races as the others. The youngster is my favorite out of the young drivers to compete on Sunday.

Cole Whitt: I know, I know I’ve talked about all the better-known and more talented drivers but Whitt offers something no one else does; A near +20 positional differential over the last three races. He starts on average at 37th but has two top-20 finishes in that span. Chalk it up to riding in the back of the pack and avoiding the “big one” but no matter how he does it, it’s hard to turn down a free 19-20 points from a very budget friendly play.