***UPDATE: The race has been postponed to Monday at 1pm ET! Draft Kings has changed roster lock to that time, so you can still enter lineups until then. I will not be making adjustments to the lineups due to the postponement.***
Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway
Hopefully everyone had a relaxing off weekend and enjoyed time with family, or the other DFS offerings. Two weeks ago, Texas offered one of the best races of the year from a lineup perspective as many of the elite drivers from the back of the pack charged to the front. Ultimately, Jimmie Johnson notched another win at Texas after starting 40th, due to not being able to start on his qualifying tires. Ryan Blaney wound up leading the majority of the laps but due to some untimely bad pit stops, finished outside the top-10 in 12th.
After the off week, it’s back to the mid-Atlantic and the famous short track that is Bristol Motor Speedway. Known as The Last Great Colosseum due to its design and the 160,000+ spectators surrounding the .533-mile concrete track. This may be a short track, but the 26-30 degree banking in the corners allow for higher speeds and more grooves for racing than the other short tracks or even 1-mile circuits do. With it being a short track however, some of the same rules apply. Passing is impressively hard to do and any unexpected, off-schedule pit stops could end your hopes for winning the race. Playing the pole sitter in a cash lineup is encouraged in a cash lineup on tracks like Bristol since it’s so hard to pass and the quickness of the laps mean the upside of leading a lot of laps is high. Positional differential still matters, especially if you have a driver with a proven track record of moving through the field, but it is much harder to count on than at other lengths of track.
Despite the bullring feel and tight quarters, there are not as many cautions as one would think, nine, on average. However the stage format could change that just a bit as drivers try to finish in the top-10 at the end of stages to get Chase points. In general, 90% of winners at Bristol have come from the first five starting spots in the grid.
So with that let’s get to the lineups!
DFS Playbook
Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
Kyle Busch | $10,600 | $26.75 | Kyle may not have a great track record recently but five wins, eight top-fives, and 13 top-10s in 23 races so otherwise. He also has led the field in laps led in the last four races |
Kevin Harvick | $10,400 | $27.00 | Harvick is second in the field with 325 laps led in the last four races and has a win with two top-fives in that span. He is alos one of only three drivers in the field with a 100+ rating |
Kyle Larson | $10,100 | $28.00 | Larson is on the pole for Sunday after qualifying was cancelled. He doesn't have the best history here but is a dominant driver at the Xfinity level. He should lead quite a few laps |
Joey Logano | $10,000 | $28.00 | Logano has a win, three top-10s and 218 laps led in the last four races at the track but his speed this week has been lacking at practice. He is a GPP only play as it stands now |
Martin Truex Jr. | $9,500 | $27.25 | Truex Jr. will start P3 and has run top-10 in each practice this week. He has been hit and miss here recently but he has found his groove this season and could win here Sunday |
Chase Elliott | $9,400 | $27.50 | Chase only has two races here under his belt but he finished 4th and 15th in those races. He starts P2 on Sunday but hasn't shown the speed that makes him more than a GPP play |
Denny Hamlin | $8,800 | $25.00 | Denny has the best average starting spot at Bristol with two top-five finishes and 73 laps led in the last four races. His practice runs have him in the GPP category with nice upside |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $8,600 | $21.00 | Jr. is a very good short track racer and has a win and eight top-fives here with one in the last three races. A +8.7 PD and fast practice times has him in line for either format at BMS |
Clint Bowyer | $8,400 | $18.50 | Bowyer is one of the most drivers at Bristol with 10 top-10s in 22 races with two in the last four. He also has the best positional differential at +14.3 over the last four races. Cash |
Ryan Blaney | $8,200 | $21.25 | Blaney has been the talk of Bristol week but a spotty performance history here has him on my GPP only list. The Wood Brothers have had good results at BMS so the upside is here |
Erik Jones | $7,800 | $20.25 | Jones maybe a rookie but he has shown well here in Xfinity races. He also has a very fast car in the 77-Toyota. A mid-tier price for very high upside is a great combo for a cash play |
Kasey Kahne | $7,600 | $22.75 | Kahne has been flashing speed at practices this week with a P13, P6, P3 respectively. He has a win and five top-fives here previously and with the speed this week, he's a top play |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,100 | $14.50 | Stenhouse is my favorite mid-tier play this week given his two top-fives, and two top-10s in the last four races with a +11.75 positional differential. Either works but cash is the play |
Matt DiBenedetto | $5,700 | $7.00 | DiBenedetto has a very good +8.75 positional differential in the last four races here. At less than $6,000 in DK and $10 in NL that's pretty good upside for either GPP or cash lineups |
Landon Cassill | $5,300 | $8.00 | Cassill is a budget-friendly play who has shown top-15 speed at practice this week. He simply provides upside to allow for more expensive drivers in the lineup |
Optimal Lineups
Draft Kings Cash | |
Kyle Busch | $10,600 |
Kyle Larson | $10,100 |
Clint Bowyer | $8,400 |
Erik Jones | $7,800 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,100 |
Matt DiBenedetto | $5,700 |
Total | $49,700 |
This week’s cash lineup starts with the two Kyles in Busch and Larson. Both drivers a $10,000 and above this week but should be well worth those price tags. Busch has had the fastest car at practice much of the week and is a five-time winner at Bristol with eight top-fives. Larson is on the pole from being the driver with the most owner points but he has looked solid at practice and in the Xfinity race on Saturday. Clint Bowyer is an upper mid-tier salary this week at $8.400 but his consistency at this track, and speed this week, is reason he’s in the lineup, not to mention his +14.3 positional differential. Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Matt DiBenedetto round out the lineup as guys who offer upside in Jones and DiBenedetto and upside in Stenhouse Jr. who averages a near top-10 finish in the last four races. Stenhouse did spin out in practice but the team repaired the car and will start P19 and not in the back of the field.
Draft Kings GPP | Draft Kings GPP #2 | |||
Kyle Busch | $10,600 | Kyle Larson | $10,100 | |
Chase Elliott | $9,400 | Martin Truex Jr. | $9,500 | |
Denny Hamlin | $8,800 | Denny Hamlin | $8,800 | |
Ryan Blaney | $8,200 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $8,600 | |
Kasey Kahne | $7,600 | Kasey Kahne | $7,600 | |
Landon Cassill | $5,300 | Landon Cassill | $5,300 | |
Total | $49,900 | Total | $49,900 |
There are two GPP lineups this week as I liked to many different drivers to make just one. The thought process behind to the different lineups was the same, upside, upside, upside. Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, and Landon Cassill are all in both lineups. All three have shown top end speed this week but have spotty records at Bristol with Denny and Kasey each having top-five finishes in their history. Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney finish off the rest of the first GPP roster. All start near the front of the pack but have the speed to stay there or move up. A couple of laps led dominators should come from that group. Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are the remaining three in the second GPP. Larson and Martin start P1 and P3 respectively and Jr. has the car, at least based on practice, to get to the top-five when all is said and done. Truex and Larson should lead a lot of laps too.
NASCAR Live | |
Kyle Larson | $28.00 |
Kyle Busch | $26.75 |
Ryan Blaney | $21.25 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $14.50 |
Landon Cassill | $8.00 |
Bonus Winner | Denny Hamlin |
Bonus Manufacturer | Toyota |
Total | $98.50 |
The NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup combines a little bit of all the others with Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Landon Cassill make up the five-man squad. It has more of a GPP feel to it but again that’s the approach to take when you are selling out for highest point totals each race.
Streak To The Finish | Matt Kenseth |
Matt Kenseth 20 top-10 finishes in 34 career races at Bristol Motor Speedway and has again showed a car capable of doing that in practice this week.