Welcome back!

After the off week for Easter Sunday, we are back racing at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday at 2pm ET on Fox. Bristol is the second time in three races that the 40-driver field will be on a short track, this time on a .533-mile track. Bristol is not like the other two short tracks at Martinsville and Richmond in that it has very steep banking, 26-30 degrees in the turns, that allow for higher speeds here. This track often is the scene of 10 or more cautions a race and unscheduled pit stops can cause drivers to drop a couple of laps down. Anything can happen on a short track but getting a couple of laps led dominators on the roster will be of the utmost importance.

Track Breakdown

 Avg.Avg.     Laps  HighLow Avg.DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Kevin Harvick10.5124123332501380116.5-1.581.2520.31
Joey Logano615.25411332180140093.5-9.2554.513.63
Matt Kenseth5.329411111891142288.4-23.747.2511.81
Jimmie Johnson1594023300223090.2600.00
Denny Hamlin31340223731326090.5-1018.254.56
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.22.510.754022300221075.311.7500.00
Ryan Newman17134013390528081.742.250.56
Dale Earnhardt Jr.17.793012300216086.68.700.00
Austin Dillon1413.254012300426077.80.7500.00
Clint Bowyer28.3144012300531072.614.300.00
Kurt Busch14.517.54011313903381100.5-334.758.69
Chase Elliott12.59.520112140415094.933.51.75
Trevor Bayne21.3154011300528066.56.300.00
Chris Buescher23.7173011100525060.56.700.00
Kyle Busch3.328.333001144808392104.2-25.0311237.33
Kyle Larson18.526.7540011900741185.3-8.2522.55.63
Brad Keselowski7.3234001240635073.6-15.710.25
Jamie McMurray1811.540014008140896.500.00
Matt DiBenedetto2819.254001200633056.48.7500.00
A.J. Allmendinger15.5224001200934174.4-6.500.00
Danica Patrick3021.254001100927054.48.7500.00
Landon Cassill2930.75400012002043147.7-1.7551.25
Paul Menard1820.540002401132068.5-2.510.25
Aric Almirola2519.5400030013340675.500.00
Kasey Kahne14.320.7540003001337179.9-6.4500.00
Ryan Blaney12.322.6730001001135079-10.3700.00
Martin Truex Jr.13.523.540001001429088.4-1000.00
Michael McDowell26.525.2540001001931046.31.2500.00
Cole Whitt37.329.540000002734038.17.800.00
Jeffrey Earnhardt37.530.520000002932031.5700.00
Reed Sorenson3733.520000002740128.53.500.00
David Ragan1935.2540000002141249.3-16.2500.00
Timmy Hill413910000003939028.4200.00
Ty Dillon342510000002525059.2900.00
Erik Jones0000000000000000.00
Gray Gaulding0000000000000000.00
Derrike Cope0000000000000000.00
Corey LaJoie0000000000000000.00
Daniel Suarez0000000000000000.00

Top-15 Drivers on Short Tracks

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow  DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Denny Hamlin7.512.541326894432139196.7-5.04110.758.52
Matt Kenseth9.518.3813247877811424102.4-8.88194.514.96
Kyle Busch6.411.11016881,16401392117.3-4.729129.10
Joey Logano3.811.621315101169551400101.5-7.82173.7513.37
Kevin Harvick11.511.31131581265401380107.50.19163.512.58
Jimmie Johnson14.510.3113158111360135094.94.19342.62
Brad Keselowski9.213.3813157102960135098.2-4.18745.69
Kurt Busch1417.231312495310138294.7-3.23132.7510.21
Austin Dillon18.517.3113034960441174.51.191.50.12
Dale Earnhardt Jr.20.214.710034800236185.35.500.00
Jamie McMurray15.512.85130261140238188.12.6510.08
Kyle Larson12.716.751202391340241188.8-4.0533.52.79
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.22.722.4613023600240160.90.2400.00
Chase Elliott15.815.4490228340338080.10.368.50.94
Martin Truex Jr.9.915.461301694321332094.5-5.561088.31

Top-15 Drivers Historically at Bristol

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFPts.Pts.Pts./race
Kurt Busch17.514.84325916231,062114232.66265.58.30
Kyle Busch16.314.26235813161,959013932.04489.7521.29
Matt Kenseth14.714.183441320251,572214260.5239311.56
Kevin Harvick16.613.94322111523862113932.66215.56.73
Brad Keselowski10.615.93142451049901350-5.33124.758.91
Joey Logano7.817.56162361145011401-9.76112.57.03
Jimmie Johnson15.114.17301101721833113610.93208.256.94
Dale Earnhardt Jr.20.912.5233181628790013928.38197.55.98
Denny Hamlin14.516.182216101559731432-1.68149.256.78
Kasey Kahne12.718.232615101751211424-5.531284.92
Clint Bowyer21.415.6822061015137034025.7234.251.56
Jamie McMurray16.816.5428031119179034310.2644.751.60
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.23.410.638034700221012.7700.00
Ryan Newman11.216.373002162012132392-5.1730.251.01
Martin Truex Jr.16.920.86220221211402382-3.9628.51.30

Drivers to watch this week:

Kyle Busch: Let’s start with the history here. He has five wins, eight top-fives, and 13 top-10s in 23 races at BMS not to mention the 1,959 laps led which are most in the field. The downside here is that his recent history at the track hasn’t been great. An average start of 3.3 but finish of 28.33 over three races illustrates that. He has two DNFs despite leading the most laps, 448, in the field. If he can stay on the track, he’s a big bet to rack up the points.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick is the second-most expensive driver this week and comes in with a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s in the last four races plus 325 laps led. He has the fifth best average finish in the field, recently, and third best out of the top-15 historically here. Harvick’s position differential isn’t great but if he qualifies near the front, he should bring copious points to the roster.

Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is another driver this week whose history at the track belies his recent results. The driver of the number-20 car has finished an average of 29th in the last four races, but he does have a win and 189 laps led. But two DNFs have lowered that finish mark. Historically however, he has four wins, 13 top-fives, and 20 top-10s to his credit with 1,572 laps led. If he can regain his form here, he is a big upside play.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has the best positional differential in the field this week with a +14.3 mark in the last four races. He has one top-five and two top-10s in that span as well. Bowyer also has the third best mark in the field historically at +5.72 in 22 races that have seen him finish in the top-five six times in that span. With consistency like that it will be hard to avoid Bowyer this week in either format.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: The number-17 has shined at Bristol of late with two top-five finishes in the last four races and an +11.75 positional differential as well. That number gets even better when you look historically and realize he has a +12.77 PD in his eight races at the track. He has never led a lap but three top-fives and four top-10s will certainly help his selection for the roster come Sunday afternoon.