O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

Texas Motor Speedway

Martinsville saw the first short track of the season and perhaps one of the most exciting races as well. Brad Keselowski notched his first win at the track and the second on the season, taking home a brand new grandfather clock. Kyle Busch and Keselowski swapped the lead several times over the last 160 laps of the race but with 43 laps to go Brad took the lead for the final time. The victory also marked the first win for Ford at The Paperclip since 2002.

The Lone Star State hosts its first senior Cup Series event this week with the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 on the 1.5-mile quad-oval layout of Texas Motor Speedway. It has a similar design to that of Atlanta Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway as well. Though it should be noted that the track was repaved after the fall race and redesigned at the same time. The previous design had banking of 24 degrees in all four turns, however now the banking in Turns 1 and 2 is a lower 20-degree slope. In addition to lower the banking, the asphalt path has been widened to 80 feet from 60 feet, which will have the effect of changing the approach angels entering and exiting the turns. With the repave comes a new set of grooves to be worn down over the next few years, so some of the stats may not hold true in this race.

At an 81-percent rate, eventual winners start in the top-five here at Texas. Races at Texas have just about eight cautions per contest with 88-percent of laps being run under green flags. This week there were an unusual amount of cars to have issues with pre-qualifying inspections, so much so that they failed to run a qualifying lap. In all nine drivers will start towards the end of the pack in the grid and value can be found there, based on practice runs.

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Brad Keselowski$10,500$27.50Keselowski is coming off a win at Martinsville last week. He has led 446 laps at TMS over the last three years to go with two top-fives in the last four races. He is only a GPP play
Kyle Larson$10,300$27.50Larson continues to show speed again this week. He has finished second and third in practice and will start in the back of the pack because of no qualifying laps. Either works here
Martin Truex Jr.$10,200$27.25Truex Jr. has a +7 positional differential at Texas and is second in laps led with 208 over the last four races. He has run mid-pack in practice despite a P7 starting spot. GPP works
Kevin Harvick$10,000$26.75Harvick is on the pole this week but hasn't shown top end speed in practice. He does have four top-10 finishes in the last four races but going backwards isn't helpful
Kyle Busch$9,900$27.00Busch finished second last week at Martinsville and comes in with a win and three top-fives in the last three races. He starts in the back of the pack with no qualifying laps run
Joey Logano$9,800$28.00Logano has the best three year average finish here at 3rd. He has three top-fives and 197 laps led in the last four races here and will start P4 on Sunday. Cash or GPP work for him
Jimmie Johnson$9,700$26.00Johnson is the king of Texas Motor Speedway. He has five wins in the last nine races here and has the most laps led all-time on the track. A P24 starting spot gives him upside
Chase Elliott$9,500$27.75Chase is another driver starting near the back because of pre-qualifying inspection issues. He has a fast race car based on practice and two top-five finishes in his only races here
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$8,500$20.75Dale is still looking to get his season going. This week is a good shot for him to do that. Like Chase he will be in the back of the field and has fast practice times. Best PD in the field
Jamie McMurray$8,300$21.50McMurray has had a fast car all season and this week is the same. Jamie Mac has two top-10s in the last four races here and could notch a win while starting P6 on Sunday
Kasey Kahne$7,300$23.00Kahne has three top-10s in the last four races here and a +6 positional differential. Practice times in the mid-20s though make him simply a GPP play in the hopes he moves up
Trevor Bayne$6,900$17.75Bayne has shown surprising speed this week in qualifying and practice and could easily finish top-five.. Bayne doesn't have a great history here but that should change Sunday
A.J. Allmendinger$6,700$15.75Allmendinger is known for being a driver to carry speed through a track but there aren't many tracks that fit his style. This is one. Practice and qualifying bode well for him
Aric Almirola$6,400$13.00Almirola has gotten faster each practice going from 17th to 9th to 4th. If that progression holds, he's a sleeper for production this week at this price.
Michael McDowell$5,500$10.25McDowell is another driving showing top end speed on Friday and Saturday. If that carries through to the race, a bigtime upside play is what he will become for GPP lineups

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Kyle Larson$10,300
Kyle Busch$9,900
Chase Elliott$9,500
Daniel Suarez$7,200
A.J. Allmendinger$6,700
Aric Almirola$6,400
  
Total$49,700

The cash lineup this week takes advantage of some of the drivers starting towards the back with Kyle Larson ($10,300), Kyle Busch ($9,900) and Chase Elliott ($9,500). All three of those drivers have top end speed but never got to show it during qualifying due to a delay in inspections. However all three have shown that speed during practice sessions. Daniel Suarez ($7,200), A.J. Allmendinger ($6,700), and Aric Almirola ($6,400) finish out the lineup. All three have shown very good speed this week but may not be the idea of a safe bet. This week’s showing matter more than the previous histories for each driver and with them showing top-10 times, they make the lineup.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kyle Larson$10,300
Jimmie Johnson$9,700
Chase Elliott$9,500
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$8,500
Aric Almirola$6,400
Michael McDowell$5,500
  
Total$49,900

The GPP Draft Kings roster again leads the way with Kyle Larson ($10,300) but then follows up with three Hendrick Motorsports drivers in Jimmie Johnson ($9,700), Chase Elliott ($9,500), and Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($8,500). Those three drivers will start further back than most though with J.J. leading the way at P24. However they have all shown top-five speed at the most recent two practice sessions. They will start with a lot of traffic in front of them and could get caught up in issues trying to move forward. Aric Almirola ($6,400) and Michael McDowell ($5,500) finish out the GPP six-driver squad. Those two have shown great lap times at practice on Friday and Saturday and McDowell offers positional differential points at a bargain price.

NASCAR Live 
Kyle Larson$27.50
Jimmie Johnson$26.00
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$20.75
Aric Almirola$13.00
Michael McDowell$10.25
Bonus WinnerJoey Logano
Bonus ManufacturerFord
  
Total$97.50

The NASCAR Fantasy Live group of five has familiar names in a combination between the DK Cash and GPP lineups. Each driver in the lineup gives a great combination of price and upside, which is what we want to see in this type of scoring format.

Streak To The FinishKevin Harvick