Auto Club 400

Auto Club Speedway

This past Sunday had a little bit of everything in the race. Long runs of drivers leading, pivotal cautions, blown tires, and a daring late-race pit strategy for the win. Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano combined to lead all but 12 laps of the race. However for various reasons, they were unable to lead the all important final lap. Ryan Newman and his Crew Chief made a risky call with six laps to go, to not come in and pit when Logano blew a tire and caused a caution. With worn tires he was able to hold off the field for the last six miles to log his first win in four years.

Now it’s time for the final stop on the West Coast swing at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California. It may be just the fifth race of the season, but it will be the fourth different track distance the racers will compete on. Auto Club is a sister track to Michigan in that it is a 2-mile oval with similar banking in the turns at 14 degrees and 11 in the front stretch. The stages this week are 60 laps, 60 laps, and finally 80 laps.

Like Atlanta, this track eats through tires. Quickly. It’s also not the smoothest track on the schedule. Cars going over a wavy surface at 200-plus mph are a recipe for a lot of wall scrapping this week.

Only 56% of eventual winners here have come from the top-five starting positions, which is one of the lowest percentages of any track NASCAR races on. That number also goes to show just how much place shifting happens over the course of the 400-mile race and why those that have shown a proven ability to move up should be in the lineup this week.  Pole sitters have only won once in the track’s 21-year history. Chevrolets have won 13 races here and Fords have won 11.

A couple of lineup notes to pay attention to this week:

Jimmie Johnson will start P37 this week after not running a qualifying lap on Friday due to using a backup car.

Joey Logano will start P35 due to pre-qualifying inspection issues not allowing him to run a qualifying lap.

Both guys offer even more value in that spot if their practice numbers show well.

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Kevin Harvick$10,800$27.75Harvick has finished second the last two years at ACS and led the most laps at 176. Him being the most expensive driver this week makes him a tough play in cash games though
Kyle Busch$10,500$27.00Busch comes in having raced only once here in the last two years and it didn't go well for him. He is a three-time winner at ACS and has led the second most laps here. Either work
Joey Logano$10,300$28.00Logano is a huge value play this week with his starting spot at P35 and showing top-10 speed at all three practices. He has finished 4th and 7th in the last two years at ACS
Jimmie Johnson$9,800$26.50JJ is the best driver in the field here as the defending winner to go along with another five victories at Auto Club. A crash his him starting P37 but running top-10 practice times
Chase Elliott$9,600$27.50Elliott has only run once here in his career but finished 6th and now is showing top-end speed in the final pracitce. He does have to replace a part though so GPP is a good idea
Martin Truex Jr.$9,400$27.00Truex Jr. is fresh off a very good performance last week at PIR and now is fast again this week. He does tend to go backwards here so he is a bit of a risk. Mid-tier value for GPP
Kyle Larson$9,100$27.25Larson has run second three weeks in a row and is now on the pole this week. That's a rough place to be here with only one winner in it's history. GPP is the only play here
Matt Kenseth$8,900$25.75Kenseth is historically the second-best driver in the field with three wins and nine top-5s in 24 tries. His 45 laps led are fourth best in the last two races but a minus PD is a knock
Denny Hamlin$8,500$25.50Hamlin starts P2 this week which is typical for him here. He does have a 28th place finish in the past two races but also has a top-three and the third most laps led. GPP is it here
Ryan Blaney$8,300$20.75Blaney is a youngster showing his speed this season. Running 7th, 8th, and 3rd in practice with a P19 start is good value from the 21-car. Cash or GPP work for him at Auto Club
Ryan Newman$8,000$17.75Newman is coming off his first win in four years and now comes to a track he has run well at previously. A P5 starting spot and fast practice times give him GPP value at $8,000
Erik Jones$7,700$19.25The rookie is showing speed again this week after a great showing at PIR. The 77-car has good value at this price this week but sill remains a GPP at this point in the season
Trevor Bayne$7,200$17.50Bayne didn't get to run a qualifying lap this week and will start P36 on Sunday. He ran top-15 in the final, race-trim practice, which gives great value at this price range of $7,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$7,000$14.00Stenhouse has one of the best positional differentials in the field over the past two years at +12.5. He starts a bit better than 22nd this week but has shown good speed in practice
Cole Whitt$5,300$5.25Whitt is a budget-play this week but has posted very respectable postional differential numbers in the past two races at Auto Club. There are worse $5,000 drivers you could get

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Kyle Busch$10,500
Joey Logano$10,300
Jimmie Johnson$9,800
Ryan Blaney$8,300
Matt DiBenedetto$5,500
Cole Whitt$5,300
  
Total$49,700

The cash lineup is stacked with top-priced guys with Kyle Busch ($10,500), Joey Logano ($10,300), and Jimmie Johnson ($9,800). Kyle has a good history here but hasn’t done terribly well in recent years. The speed he has shown this week is promising. Logano and Johnson both offer incredible upside based on their respective starting positions but they will be high ownership guys. Ryan Blaney ($8,300) is the mid-tier driver in the lineup. He has run 12-16 spots better in practice than where he qualified, which offers the positional differential we are looking for. The two budget-plays this week are Matt DiBenedetto ($5,500) and Cole Whitt ($5,300) who both offer decent upside for guys that far down the price pool.

Draft Kings GPP 
Jimmie Johnson$9,800
Martin Truex Jr.$9,400
Matt Kenseth$8,900
Erik Jones$7,700
Trevor Bayne$7,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$7,000
  
Total$50,000

This week’s GPP lineup for Draft Kings does not have any of the top-priced guys. It starts with Jimmie Johnson ($9,800) and Martin Truex Jr. ($9,400) as the top drivers for the six-man squad.  JJ is the easy choice to anchor the lineup and Truex has shown enough top-end speed to make me a buyer at a track he hasn’t historically done well at. Matt Kenseth ($8,900), Erik Jones  ($7,700), Trevor Bayne ($7,200), and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000) finish off the roster of six. Kenseth is a three-time winner here and has top-ten speed in the practices, including race-trim practice. Jones and Stenhouse are the two riskier options as a rookie and a still unproven guy but guys who have shown very good speed this week and have good positional differentials. Bayne will start P36 this week and brings upside with that starting spot.

NASCAR Live 
Joey Logano$28.00
Jimmie Johnson$26.50
Matt Kenseth$25.75
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$14.00
Cole Whitt$5.25
Bonus WinnerKyle Larson
Bonus ManufacturerChevy
  
Total$99.50

The NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup brings all the names from above in a combo from the cash and GPP lineups. The combination should give stability and the risk-reward we want in the five-driver squad.

Streak To The FinishChase Elliott