Folds of Honor QuickTrip 500

Atlanta Motor Speedway

Last week in Daytona was one heck of a way to kickoff the start of the 2017 Monster Energy Cup season. The stages made the race exciting from beginning to end, not to mention the copious crashes that involved all but five drivers on the afternoon. Kurt Busch, who drove without a rearview mirror for the last 30 laps, came away with his first win in the 500. Unfortunately for us, that meant some low point totals in the lineups, but hey that’s bound to happen sometimes when we’re talking about cars driving 200 mph.

This Sunday brings the Folds of Honor QuickTrip 500 to Atlanta Motor Speedway and its tire-eating 1.5-mile oval track. The track boasts 24-degree banking in the turns and five degrees in the straights. Though the track is of the most common length on the NASCAR circuit, a mile and a half, it doesn’t mean the track is as easy a ride as some others on the schedule. The transitions from the turns to the straights are especially tricky and can cause cars to get loose seemingly out of nowhere, and then there’s the tire issue. Atlanta’s grayed; worn-down; 20-year-old surface eats through tires with remarkable efficiency. A NASCAR team uses between nine and 14 sets of tires in a single race, but at Atlanta that number is almost always 14. Teams that have the proper pit strategy will be in contention in the waning laps.

Winning cars at the FOH 500 come from the top-five starting spots 86% of the time, though Jimmie Johnson has bucked that trend in each of the last two years. There are only a handful of laps led dominators in the field this week so having as many as possible on your roster(s) is imperative. With that let’s get to the picks!

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Jimmie Johnson$10,600$27.25JJ is the only driver to win here in the last two years, and owns a sparkling +26 postional differential in that time. He starts P18 Sunday making him a great cash game play
Kyle Busch$10,400$27.50Kyle has had one of the fastest cars all week in qualifying in both practices. He start P3, where he finished last year, and is looking to make up for a disappointing week last week
Kevin Harvick$10,200$28.00Harvick has led the most laps in the field in the last three years with 442 as well as the best Loop Rating at 131. He hasn't landed in victory lane yet could from the pole this week
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$9,500$22.50Jr. is arguably the second best driver here with finishes of 2nd and 3rd the last two years. He starts where he usually does, P12 and should replicate the past couple of races
Chase Elliott$9,300$26.50Elliot is on home turf this week having grown up in Dawsonville, GA. He raced from 24th to 8th in last year's race and has a better car this year. Cash or GPP makes sense for him
Matt Kenseth$8,600$26.25Kenseth has been fast this week in practice running 4th and 14th, before qualifying 16th. He has one of the best positional differentials in the field and owns a top-five finish
Clint Bowyer$8,400$15.25Bowyer had a bad week last week, but is improving this week. He has increased his speed over two pracitces and missed a P12 starting spot by .01 seconds. He is only a GPP play
Jamie McMurray$7,800$21.00McMurray had a solid week at Daytona and has shown that same speed this week. He starts P7 but shown top-two speed, in the first practice. A mid-tier GPP play is what he is
Ryan Newman$7,600$18.00Newman is looking to put together two good weeks in a row. He has a top-10 here and 11 in the last 24 races at this distance. A P2 starting spot and a P1 practice are good signs
Ryan Blaney$7,200$20.00Blaney has been a bit all over the place this week with a P9 and P21 in practices and a P14 in the starting grid. He does have four top-10 finishes in his career at 1.5-mile tracks
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$6,900$14.00Stenhouse is starting P4 in the grid on Sunday and has shown top-five speed in practice. He has only one top-10 finish in the last two years at 1.5-mile tracks, but it did come at Atlanta
Aric Almirola$6,700$12.50Almirola had some trouble in qualifying and will start 30th. He has run much faster than that in practice though so there is upside here. Almirola has a +12 position mark at AMS
A.J. Allmendinger$6,500$16.25Allmendinger had a very good week last week and is now getting faster every time on the track. He starts P20 but has shown top-three speed. A.J. has a top-10 here since 2015
Ty Dillon$6,100$12.00The younger Dillon brother is a low-tier budget GPP option this week given his up and down performance of late. He has shown good speed at practices but he's only a GPP
Trevor Bayne$6,000$17.00Trevor Bayne is my sleeper pick of the week. He ran 12th and 9th at practice and starts P15. Bayne put up very good points in the 500 and should be able to repeat again at ATL

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Jimmie Johnson$10,600
Kyle Busch$10,400
Matt Kenseth$8,600
Ryan Blaney$7,200
Aric Almirola$6,700
A.J. Allmendinger$6,500
  
Total$50,000

Sunday’s lineup for Draft Kings cash games is led by the two top-priced drivers in Jimmie Johnson ($10,600) and Kyle Busch ($10,400). JJ is an obvious choice, despite his high ownership rates, given his history here the last two years and general history at 1.5-mile tracks. Kyle has been fast all week and finished third in last year’s race after starting 39th. Matt Kenseth ($8.600) and Ryan Blaney ($7,200) are next up in the six-driver group. Kenseth has been consistent this week so far, has a +12.5 positional differential, and a top-five finish in the last two races. Blaney is a bit of a risk in a cash games, but he has the speed to sit at or near the front of the pack on Sunday. The remaining two spots in the lineup are filled by Aric Almirola ($6.700) and A.L. Allmendinger ($6.500) who each have upside at this price point. Almirola has been quick in practice despite a bad qualifying run and owns a +12 positional differential while Allmendinger has five top-10s at 1.5-mile tracks in the last two years, one coming at Atlanta and has shown top-three speed.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kevin Harvick$10,200
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$9,500
Matt Kenseth$8,600
Jamie McMurray$7,800
Ryan Newman$7,600
Trevor Bayne$6,000
  
Total$49,700

The GPP lineup has just one hold over from the cash in Matt Kenseth ($8,600) and is led off by Kevin Harvick ($10,200) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,500). Harvick has the most laps led with 442 in the last three years and the best Loop Data Rating at 131. Jr. has the second best average finish position at 2.5 over the last two years and is starting where he usually does at 12th. Jamie McMurray ($7,800), Ryan Newman ($7,600), and Trevor Bayne ($6,000) round out the group of six. McMurray doesn’t have great history here but he has another fast car this week after showing top-two speed in practice. Newman looked like the Newman of old last week and now comes to a track and distance he has performed well at in the past. A P2 starting spot bodes well for his success. Lastly, there is Bayne at a cheap $6,000 price tag this week, making him my sleeper pick. He has top-10 speed coming into Sunday and could sneak a top-five finish.

NASCAR Live 
Kevin Harvick$28.00
Matt Kenseth$26.25
Ryan Newman$18.00
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$14.00
Aric Almirola$12.50
Bonus WinnerKyle Busch
Bonus ManufacturerToyota
  
Total$98.75

The five-driver NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup has a lot of the same drivers as the ones above in Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Aric Almirola, but there is a new driver in Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($14.00). Stenhouse is a top-20 driver at the 1.5-mile distance and registered his one and only top-10 finish at the distance at Atlanta. He has speed this week and could very well do it once more, or perhaps win. The others offer the same upside as they do in Draft Kings to make it a solid mix of cash and GPP scoring.

Streak To The FinishMartin Truex Jr.

We're just hoping for a top-10 finish from Truex this week to get the streak started.

Matthew Selz can be found on Twitter @theselzman and writing weekly articles at Fantasy Alarm.